[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1625.

LucyLovesCrypto

sr. member

Activity: 414

Merit: 251

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on December 09, 2015, 12:28:19 PM

Quote from: jehst on December 08, 2015, 11:39:29 PM

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

The large amount of XMR available at low cost for borrowing keeps the rallies tamped down.

But when too many short sellers try to cover at once, it's off to the moon.

This is exactly why margin trading is dangerous. It has the potential to increase volatility.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: americanpegasus on December 09, 2015, 08:03:02 PM

Quote from: smooth on December 09, 2015, 07:51:25 PM

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Yes, this is a frequent source of discussion: this is not a stock - this is fundamentally a new form of money itself. It is a new financial universe that must expand to be useful, and for it to expand it must go through a speculative tier where people are "buying the colorful beads" because they predict others will eventually want to use them to transact with. Obviously, the potential for cryptocurrency goes beyond a simple stock. At it's best, a stock will only achieve dominance of the speculative tier - there will never be a transactional economy using stock certificates, and on the flip side: a cryptocurrency almost certainly needs a transactional economy to emerge in order to maintain legitimate long-term value if it is initially backed by 'nothing'.

As well, I make sure to mention many reminders of the risks involved and that money transferred into crypto-assets is "as good as gone" (so pretend you've already lost it).

Quote

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

Thanks for the tip.

for checking if the transaction arrived, I recommend xmrtests.llcoins.net/viewkey.html

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

Quote from: smooth on December 09, 2015, 07:51:25 PM

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Yes, this is a frequent source of discussion: this is not a stock - this is fundamentally a new form of money itself. It is a new financial universe that must expand to be useful, and for it to expand it must go through a speculative tier where people are "buying the colorful beads" because they predict others will eventually want to use them to transact with. Obviously, the potential for cryptocurrency goes beyond a simple stock. At it's best, a stock will only achieve dominance of the speculative tier - there will never be a transactional economy using stock certificates, and on the flip side: a cryptocurrency almost certainly needs a transactional economy to emerge in order to maintain legitimate long-term value if it is initially backed by 'nothing'.

As well, I make sure to mention many reminders of the risks involved and that money transferred into crypto-assets is "as good as gone" (so pretend you've already lost it).

Quote

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

Thanks for the tip.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: americanpegasus on December 09, 2015, 07:43:47 PM

as if it were a stock.

I would clearly remind them of the differences between stocks and cryptocurrencies, which have some properties of stocks (especially small speculative stocks), some of commodities, and some of currencies.

Quote

Next up is a workshop on properly securing Monero for a layman - something that will have to be offloaded onto a MyMonero account for now, but hopefully one day will be doable with a GUI and a secure Linux laptop.

It's not exactly '4dummies' but paper wallets can certainly be created offline with simplewallet (even without having a daemon running). Proper paper wallets for all coins have always required a bit of extra work, but are still important for secure long-term storage.

americanpegasus

hero member

Activity: 770

Merit: 504

Hey all, I have been taking a slight absence from online Monero-land in the past month.

But not IRL. I've been excitedly jabbering to anyone at work who will listen, and many are now convinced (and more importantly can elaborate themselves on) why Monero may be the proper successor to Bitcoin. There is actually a small (and growing) group of people at work who are getting excited about cryptocurrency - up from zero a few months ago.

A few are actually considering buying a conservative amount, as if it were a stock. Next up is a workshop on properly securing Monero for a layman - something that will have to be offloaded onto a MyMonero account for now, but hopefully one day will be doable with a GUI and a secure Linux laptop.

dloghwak

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on December 09, 2015, 04:01:36 PM

Quote from: dloghwak on December 09, 2015, 01:52:57 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on December 09, 2015, 01:07:37 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on December 09, 2015, 12:49:10 PM

Quote from: dadj on December 09, 2015, 12:47:24 PM

...

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

I think after a certain point a BTC increase will not result in a decline in the XMR/BTC price anymore, because most traders/investors that want to jump on the BTC rally have already done so.

At this point the rally is most likely not a rally anymore.

After the heavy retrace it looks to me like it is going for a second leg upwards, which actually already started. Bear in mind that we are up over 100$ from the lowest point of the retrace.

What I meant to say was, that at the point where most traders/investors are onboard, it's most likely a turning point and not a rally anymore, as it simply would lack fuel to keep the rally going.
I did not mean that this particular rally is done.

Bassica

sr. member

Activity: 283

Merit: 250

Almost a thousand moneroj for 1 btc. We'll be looking back on this with remorse gents...

medusa13

sr. member

Activity: 453

Merit: 500

hello world

we all together draw the chart. peoples imagination of the future can change a lot.
this market is very small. every trade has an effect. bigger trades can change sentiment very quickly

megges

sr. member

Activity: 371

Merit: 250

Quote from: medusa13 on December 09, 2015, 04:15:04 PM

maybe a little bit early, but i could imagine a perfect hammer on the weekly if we stay stable.

..... if .....

It's not a hammer until the candle is closed.
Technical analysis, like a hammer formation, would not work if the candle is not closed.
Calling patterns on not yet closed candles is something for gamblers or to trap "noobs"

(But somehow we are all just addicted gamblers, aren't we?)

medusa13

sr. member

Activity: 453

Merit: 500

hello world

maybe a little bit early, but i could imagine a perfect hammer on the weekly if we stay stable.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: dloghwak on December 09, 2015, 01:52:57 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on December 09, 2015, 01:07:37 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on December 09, 2015, 12:49:10 PM

Quote from: dadj on December 09, 2015, 12:47:24 PM

...

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

I think after a certain point a BTC increase will not result in a decline in the XMR/BTC price anymore, because most traders/investors that want to jump on the BTC rally have already done so.

At this point the rally is most likely not a rally anymore.

After the heavy retrace it looks to me like it is going for a second leg upwards, which actually already started. Bear in mind that we are up over 100$ from the lowest point of the retrace.

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

XMRUSD stable, expect more stability. Accumulating.
I am full on BTC, holding, expect a continued rise into next week.
I am closing my EEM short today. Reversing to long.
Closing CL short today. Going flat.
Neutralizing my ES short overnight, due to risk of a bounce in USDJPY.
Lightening up on wheat, with an eye to doubling down below 480.
Gold should drift up until middle of next week, then resume downtrend, before ES finishes the current drop.
I like bear steepeners into the rate hike.
Favorite shares for buy-and-hold right now are NMM, SUNE, TERP, DDD.
Favorite short AMZN.

dloghwak

sr. member

Activity: 290

Merit: 250

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on December 09, 2015, 01:07:37 PM

Quote from: ArticMine on December 09, 2015, 12:49:10 PM

Quote from: dadj on December 09, 2015, 12:47:24 PM

...

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

I think after a certain point a BTC increase will not result in a decline in the XMR/BTC price anymore, because most traders/investors that want to jump on the BTC rally have already done so.

At this point the rally is most likely not a rally anymore.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: ArticMine on December 09, 2015, 12:49:10 PM

Quote from: dadj on December 09, 2015, 12:47:24 PM

...

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

Or -> http://monerodice.pd.to/polo.php, for a summary over time.

Regarding speculation, asks down to ~340k from ~420k. Also, unlike yesterday, we seem to be quite stable in XMR/BTC terms, even up a bit. Hopefully we can hold this range until 0.9 is out.

I think after a certain point a BTC increase will not result in a decline in the XMR/BTC price anymore, because most traders/investors that want to jump on the BTC rally have already done so.

ArticMine

legendary

Activity: 2282

Merit: 1050

Monero Core Team

Quote from: dadj on December 09, 2015, 12:47:24 PM

...

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

https://poloniex.com/lending#XMR

dadj

full member

Activity: 178

Merit: 100

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on December 09, 2015, 12:28:19 PM

Quote from: jehst on December 08, 2015, 11:39:29 PM

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

The large amount of XMR available at low cost for borrowing keeps the rallies tamped down.

But when too many short sellers try to cover at once, it's off to the moon.

Where can you see the amount of xmr available for lending?

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: jehst on December 08, 2015, 11:39:29 PM

Most alts spend >90% of their lives falling against bitcoin and <10% of their lives rising against bitcoin.

altcoin investors must get used to the idea that we will spend 90% of our time watching our money shrink and 10% of our time watching it explode.

My hypothesis is that the transition to the next XMR bull market will be sudden, not gradual. People will be wondering whether XMR is dead in one moment; in the next, it will be rocketing to .01 per bitcoin or beyond.

The large amount of XMR available at low cost for borrowing keeps the rallies tamped down.

But when too many short sellers try to cover at once, it's off to the moon.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: onemorexmr on December 09, 2015, 10:10:15 AM

Quote from: Quicken on December 09, 2015, 09:55:07 AM

Perhaps only peripherally important for Monero but this news story is doing the rounds today. Example:

http://news.sky.com/story/1602546/police-raid-after-bitcoin-creator-revealed

Quote

Police have raided the Sydney home of a man named as the likely creator of cryptocurrency bitcoin, according to the Reuters news agency

Quote

However the police force said in a statement that the move was not linked to "media reporting ... about bitcoins".

Instead it directed all inquiries to the Australian Tax Office, suggesting the raid could be linked to tax issues.

Hello, Satoshi?

i dont think so... but https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1281318.0;topicseen
more interesting how will bitcoin price react as the media and australia tax bureau seems to believe it ;-)

Australian banks are really afraid of crypto currency and are waging war on it. If I lived in that country I'd be trying to get out.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Quicken on December 09, 2015, 09:55:07 AM

Perhaps only peripherally important for Monero but this news story is doing the rounds today. Example:

http://news.sky.com/story/1602546/police-raid-after-bitcoin-creator-revealed

Quote

Police have raided the Sydney home of a man named as the likely creator of cryptocurrency bitcoin, according to the Reuters news agency

Quote

However the police force said in a statement that the move was not linked to "media reporting ... about bitcoins".

Instead it directed all inquiries to the Australian Tax Office, suggesting the raid could be linked to tax issues.

Hello, Satoshi?

http://gizmodo.com/this-australian-says-he-and-his-dead-friend-invented-bi-1746958692
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/has-wired-discovered-the-real-satoshi-nakamoto-this-time-1281318

Thanks for those links! They brought me on a 2 hour tour learning alot about Cypherpunk as well as a interesting conference about to be held in russia that I linked to in the main thread.
http://www.cybersalon.org/cypherpunk/

You should post these in the main thread as they are not topic related. Wink

onemorexmr

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 251

Quote from: Quicken on December 09, 2015, 09:55:07 AM

Perhaps only peripherally important for Monero but this news story is doing the rounds today. Example:

http://news.sky.com/story/1602546/police-raid-after-bitcoin-creator-revealed

Quote

Police have raided the Sydney home of a man named as the likely creator of cryptocurrency bitcoin, according to the Reuters news agency

Quote

However the police force said in a statement that the move was not linked to "media reporting ... about bitcoins".

Instead it directed all inquiries to the Australian Tax Office, suggesting the raid could be linked to tax issues.

Hello, Satoshi?

i dont think so... but https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1281318.0;topicseen
more interesting how will bitcoin price react as the media and australia tax bureau seems to believe it ;-)

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1625. (Read 3313576 times)