[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1776.

dnaleor

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Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: smooth on August 28, 2015, 06:33:41 AM

I was just commenting that your charts don't (at least the top one doesn't) show this kind of convergence, even out near the right edge which is close to 100 years. I have no reason to doubt that the charts are correct, but in terms of presentation on the long term behavior I think they are a bit misleading (or perhaps unclear is a more neutral term).

I wasn't trying to be intentionally misleading, if that's your concern

Quote from: GingerAle on August 28, 2015, 06:32:17 AM

Ultimately, there's no telling what will really work out the best. The theoretical 1coin has serious inflationary problems for early adopters, thus there is no incentive to be part of the initial effort of crafting the technology and infrastructure. In a world where cryptocurrencies are commonplace, and everyone's mining on their phones and TVs, then perhaps a 1coin distribution would be possible. But would the worlds most powerful supercomputer (the bitcoin network) had been built in a matter of 2 years by the conglomerate effort of random actors with the knowledge that bitcoins would be emitted forever? I don't know.

I agree that inflation is an issue with 1COIN for a longer period than with XMR. Maybe XMR has the perfect balance for bootstrapping the currency with the initial "fast" emission and the fixed block reward like 1COIN has...

Let's call the 18.4 million the "bootstrap emission" then Wink

smooth

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Quote from: GingerAle on August 28, 2015, 06:32:17 AM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2015, 06:18:38 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 27, 2015, 08:21:33 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 27, 2015, 07:17:10 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:
img snip
edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

There is something peculiar about these charts because the literal number of coins is fairly arbitrary. In the long term XMR and 1COIN are exactly the same right? But that is not apparent from the charts at all.

true

In the long run, it is about the same. the only difference is the big inflation at the start.

If we want to compare the 18.4 million moneroj at the start with 1COIN, we need to devide that number by the permanent block reward (0.3 XMR)
So 18400000/0.3 = 61333333 is the equivalent number of 1COINs
This number is an equivalent of 61333333/(60*24*365.25) =~ 117 years of 1COIN-emission. Monero does this in 8 years.

So after about 109 years in 1COIN, the situation is the same: same inflation % as XMR and going down every year with the same rate.
Whether we can sell this "initial fast mining" to the public or not is yet to be seen. I hope we can.

In any case it is clear that XMR distribution is one of the most fair out there. it's not an instamine, not a premine, not a PoS scam, not an ICO

The "fast" mined coins are all bought at the market, and most of the time for pretty high prices, especially at the start Wink

The public bought into the same type of distribution with bitcoin, so I don't think its a concern.

Some of the public has. Most hasn't.

Quote

Ultimately, there's no telling what will really work out the best. The theoretical 1coin has serious inflationary problems for early adopters, thus there is no incentive to be part of the initial effort of crafting the technology and infrastructure. In a world where cryptocurrencies are commonplace, and everyone's mining on their phones and TVs, then perhaps a 1coin distribution would be possible. But would the worlds most powerful supercomputer (the bitcoin network) had been built in a matter of 2 years by the conglomerate effort of random actors with the knowledge that bitcoins would be emitted forever? I don't know.

I agree with most of this. Not just the mining network either. A lot of work on all aspects of the ecosystem and promotion were done by countless people with all sorts of different backgrounds, social networks, and personal assets, all motivated by the urgency of being an early adopter. If inflation continues (in a sense) unabated for decades then there no such urgency.

smooth

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Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2015, 06:18:38 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 27, 2015, 08:21:33 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 27, 2015, 07:17:10 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:

edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

There is something peculiar about these charts because the literal number of coins is fairly arbitrary. In the long term XMR and 1COIN are exactly the same right? But that is not apparent from the charts at all.

true

In the long run, it is about the same. the only difference is the big inflation at the start.

If we want to compare the 18.4 million moneroj at the start with 1COIN, we need to devide that number by the permanent block reward (0.3 XMR)
So 18400000/0.3 = 61333333 is the equivalent number of 1COINs
This number is an equivalent of 61333333/(60*24*365.25) =~ 117 years of 1COIN-emission. Monero does this in 8 years.

So after about 109 years in 1COIN, the situation is the same: same inflation % as XMR and going down every year with the same rate.
Whether we can sell this "initial fast mining" to the public or not is yet to be seen. I hope we can.

In any case it is clear that XMR distribution is one of the most fair out there. it's not an instamine, not a premine, not a PoS scam, not an ICO

The "fast" mined coins are all bought at the market, and most of the time for pretty high prices, especially at the start Wink

I was just commenting that your charts don't (at least the top one doesn't) show this kind of convergence, even out near the right edge which is close to 100 years. I have no reason to doubt that the charts are correct, but in terms of presentation on the long term behavior I think they are a bit misleading (or perhaps unclear is a more neutral term).

GingerAle

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Activity: 1260

Merit: 1008

Quote from: dnaleor on August 28, 2015, 06:18:38 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 27, 2015, 08:21:33 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 27, 2015, 07:17:10 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:
img snip
edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

There is something peculiar about these charts because the literal number of coins is fairly arbitrary. In the long term XMR and 1COIN are exactly the same right? But that is not apparent from the charts at all.

true

In the long run, it is about the same. the only difference is the big inflation at the start.

If we want to compare the 18.4 million moneroj at the start with 1COIN, we need to devide that number by the permanent block reward (0.3 XMR)
So 18400000/0.3 = 61333333 is the equivalent number of 1COINs
This number is an equivalent of 61333333/(60*24*365.25) =~ 117 years of 1COIN-emission. Monero does this in 8 years.

So after about 109 years in 1COIN, the situation is the same: same inflation % as XMR and going down every year with the same rate.
Whether we can sell this "initial fast mining" to the public or not is yet to be seen. I hope we can.

In any case it is clear that XMR distribution is one of the most fair out there. it's not an instamine, not a premine, not a PoS scam, not an ICO

The "fast" mined coins are all bought at the market, and most of the time for pretty high prices, especially at the start Wink

The public bought into the same type of distribution with bitcoin, so I don't think its a concern.

Careful with the second bold though- this is the same rationale often used by the dashers.

Ultimately, there's no telling what will really work out the best. The theoretical 1coin has serious inflationary problems for early adopters, thus there is no incentive to be part of the initial effort of crafting the technology and infrastructure. In a world where cryptocurrencies are commonplace, and everyone's mining on their phones and TVs, then perhaps a 1coin distribution would be possible. But would the worlds most powerful supercomputer (the bitcoin network) had been built in a matter of 2 years by the conglomerate effort of random actors with the knowledge that bitcoins would be emitted forever? I don't know.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: smooth on August 27, 2015, 08:21:33 PM

Quote from: dnaleor on August 27, 2015, 07:17:10 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:

edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

There is something peculiar about these charts because the literal number of coins is fairly arbitrary. In the long term XMR and 1COIN are exactly the same right? But that is not apparent from the charts at all.

true

In the long run, it is about the same. the only difference is the big inflation at the start.

If we want to compare the 18.4 million moneroj at the start with 1COIN, we need to devide that number by the permanent block reward (0.3 XMR)
So 18400000/0.3 = 61333333 is the equivalent number of 1COINs
This number is an equivalent of 61333333/(60*24*365.25) =~ 117 years of 1COIN-emission. Monero does this in 8 years.

So after about 109 years in 1COIN, the situation is the same: same inflation % as XMR and going down every year with the same rate.
Whether we can sell this "initial fast mining" to the public or not is yet to be seen. I hope we can.

In any case it is clear that XMR distribution is one of the most fair out there. it's not an instamine, not a premine, not a PoS scam, not an ICO

The "fast" mined coins are all bought at the market, and most of the time for pretty high prices, especially at the start Wink

GingerAle

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Activity: 1260

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Quote from: OrientA on August 27, 2015, 08:19:28 PM

Quote from: megadeth on August 27, 2015, 07:02:23 PM

Adding to my stash under 50 cents. Liking this.

The price is around 50c for some time.

yes as some observer noted, we seem to be in a phase where we think 50 cents is normal.

smooth

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Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: dnaleor on August 27, 2015, 07:17:10 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:

edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

There is something peculiar about these charts because the literal number of coins is fairly arbitrary. In the long term XMR and 1COIN are exactly the same right? But that is not apparent from the charts at all.

OrientA

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Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: megadeth on August 27, 2015, 07:02:23 PM

Adding to my stash under 50 cents. Liking this.

The price is around 50c for some time.

dnaleor

legendary

Activity: 1470

Merit: 1000

Want privacy? Use Monero!

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 22, 2015, 04:39:02 PM

I'm still not sold that disinflation is better than regular ol' inflation (ala 1% / 2% in perpetuity) but it serves as a useful tool to replace lost coins and keep the total float in the tens of millions.

the problem with an exponential growing monetary supply is that the coin isn't good for a store of value function.
inflation of 1% annually means that the number coins is doubled every 70 years.
If inflation % slowly goes down, you know that the next year the coin value will be diluted less than the previous year.
If coin has an exponential monetary base, every year the same value needs to be absorbed by the market. It never goes down.
Think about gold... Is it is a store of value because the amount is limited? not really imho, it is because each year less and less gold can be digged up. We know that some asteroids contain gold. If we manage to get that gold, the price will drop. but the total number of gold in the universe is still finite...

Imho the best distribution is a coin with a fixed block reward:

edit: the "1COIN" is a hypothetical coin that has 1 coin as block reward every minute.

megadeth

sr. member

Activity: 289

Merit: 252

bagholder since 2013

Adding to my stash under 50 cents. Liking this.

TrueCryptonaire

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Activity: 1092

Merit: 1000

Quote from: kazuki49 on August 27, 2015, 02:47:02 PM

Quote from: Jungian on August 27, 2015, 02:43:06 PM

Quote from: kazuki49 on August 27, 2015, 01:13:10 PM

The governaments have seen how poorly Bitcoin protects privacy, now they let Darknet markets grow big again, letting people think they are safe, then boom big crackdown, just wait.

I think you are underestimating the privacy of Bitcoin and overestimate how competent government is.

I have seen enough evidence thats the other way around, the governments are not dumb, they have time on their side and the judge of the silkroad case said Bitcoin traceability was vital in the process. I despise drugs and its culture but I know an orwellian tool when I see one.

I agree. Governement is not dumb.
If they see it interesting enough to break a trading market, they will do it.
Sure it takes time as you need to do the research to spot the weakneses but generally governements have enough resources to perform even bigger tasks. After all, they have tax payers money which they can spend on hiring the best and smartest people to work for them if they have enough incentive to do so.

TrueCryptonaire

legendary

Activity: 1092

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As soon as you tell your public adress your transactions are, well, public information.

Monero offers enough privacy for users, and most of us want to have our privacy especially with the majroity of money. Some smaller amounts - who cares if they are private or not.

kazuki49

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

Quote from: Jungian on August 27, 2015, 02:43:06 PM

Quote from: kazuki49 on August 27, 2015, 01:13:10 PM

The governaments have seen how poorly Bitcoin protects privacy, now they let Darknet markets grow big again, letting people think they are safe, then boom big crackdown, just wait.

I think you are underestimating the privacy of Bitcoin and overestimate how competent government is.

I have seen enough evidence thats the other way around, the governments are not dumb, they have time on their side and the judge of the silkroad case said Bitcoin traceability was vital in the process. I despise drugs and its culture but I know an orwellian tool when I see one.

Jungian

legendary

Activity: 930

Merit: 1010

Quote from: kazuki49 on August 27, 2015, 01:13:10 PM

The governaments have seen how poorly Bitcoin protects privacy, now they let Darknet markets grow big again, letting people think they are safe, then boom big crackdown, just wait.

I think you are underestimating the privacy of Bitcoin and overestimate how competent government is. It took them a huge amount of time and effort to take down silk road and that site was not very professionally ran. Agora is probably a level or two above what silk road ever was. And even if they are taken down, another one is up the next moment. It's still very safe for buyers and vendors compared to going to the streets.

And BTC was not the weak link in silk road I think.

But yeah, we need more privacy

kazuki49

sr. member

Activity: 350

Merit: 250

The governaments have seen how poorly Bitcoin protects privacy, now they let Darknet markets grow big again, letting people think they are safe, then boom big crackdown, just wait.

thelibertycap

full member

Activity: 211

Merit: 100

Darknet remains defiant

Despite the warning from Silk Road case Judge Katherine Forest who said “They need to understand, without equivocation, that there will be severe consequences” and the efforts of law enforcements and governments worldwide, the sales and transactions across Darknet markets have risen. The volume currently fluctuates between US$300,000 and US$500,000, adding up to somewhere between US$100 million and US$180 million in annual sales.

“These figures are small potatoes in relation to the most recent UN report, which tallied the global drug trade at a colossal US$321.6 billion or 1 percent of the world’s gross domestic product,” reported the Daily Beast. “Less than 0.1% of all drug trade occurs in the Dark Web, yet expensive global operations relentlessly pursue and shut down these marketplaces.”

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 12:05:24 PM

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 27, 2015, 11:41:35 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 11:10:09 AM

Quote from: GingerAle on August 27, 2015, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 10:56:09 AM

Has anyone done an import (paper wallet) using the seed words into MyMonero?
I just tried, it asked me for the words, then it verified the 10 Monero fee, I accepted, then I came into an empty wallet.
How much time should it take to get the funds to appear in MyMonero?

Thx in advance,
IAS

have you ever recreated a wallet using the import from electrum seed on your home PC?

basically, the wallet has to refresh from blocktime 0, so right now mymonero's backend is scanning through the entirety of the blockchain looking for the inputs you own. This scanning can take A WHILE. I know my poor xeon core-architecture CPUs with a HDD can take HOURS to get me a syncd wallet.

So, it could be an hour, depending on how beefy the mymonero servers are. This amount of work is why it costs 10 xmr.

Heart rises back up into chest...

Thanks for the detailed explanation, much appreciated.

Its about sharing

Did you perhaps generate your seed from MoneroAddress.org? If so, see -> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12206473

[1] Yes I did. Oh man, I need to install simple wallet and download the whole blockchain? Huh

This is exactly why I used MoneroAddress.org, as I couldn't get the wallet running right on my mack.
I noticed the keys were different but didn't think much of it.

[2] Offhand, in the future can I cash in the paper wallets on MyMonero? I don't need to do it right now. (Or when they have the GUI come out, I can wait a while)

Thanks for the info.

[1] I guess so, but perhaps shoot luigi1111 a PM first , he'll run you through it. I don't know for sure if also importing it into simplewallet now will mess things up.

[2] Yes, MoneroAddress has been updated and should now be compatible with both simplewallet and MyMonero.

For more discussion regarding this problem, see the following links:

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12195991
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12196103
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12206473

PS: Don't worry, your precious Moneroj are safe, but you'll expierence a bit of a hassle importing them.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: dEBRUYNE on August 27, 2015, 11:41:35 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 11:10:09 AM

Quote from: GingerAle on August 27, 2015, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 10:56:09 AM

Has anyone done an import (paper wallet) using the seed words into MyMonero?
I just tried, it asked me for the words, then it verified the 10 Monero fee, I accepted, then I came into an empty wallet.
How much time should it take to get the funds to appear in MyMonero?

Thx in advance,
IAS

have you ever recreated a wallet using the import from electrum seed on your home PC?

basically, the wallet has to refresh from blocktime 0, so right now mymonero's backend is scanning through the entirety of the blockchain looking for the inputs you own. This scanning can take A WHILE. I know my poor xeon core-architecture CPUs with a HDD can take HOURS to get me a syncd wallet.

So, it could be an hour, depending on how beefy the mymonero servers are. This amount of work is why it costs 10 xmr.

Heart rises back up into chest...

Thanks for the detailed explanation, much appreciated.

Its about sharing

Did you perhaps generate your seed from MoneroAddress.org? If so, see -> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12206473

Yes I did. Oh man, I need to install simple wallet and download the whole blockchain? Huh

This is exactly why I used MoneroAddress.org, as I couldn't get the wallet running right on my mack.
I noticed the keys were different but didn't think much of it.

Offhand, in the future can I cash in the paper wallets on MyMonero? I don't need to do it right now. (Or when they have the GUI come out, I can wait a while)

Thanks for the info.

dEBRUYNE

legendary

Activity: 2268

Merit: 1141

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 11:10:09 AM

Quote from: GingerAle on August 27, 2015, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 10:56:09 AM

Has anyone done an import (paper wallet) using the seed words into MyMonero?
I just tried, it asked me for the words, then it verified the 10 Monero fee, I accepted, then I came into an empty wallet.
How much time should it take to get the funds to appear in MyMonero?

Thx in advance,
IAS

have you ever recreated a wallet using the import from electrum seed on your home PC?

basically, the wallet has to refresh from blocktime 0, so right now mymonero's backend is scanning through the entirety of the blockchain looking for the inputs you own. This scanning can take A WHILE. I know my poor xeon core-architecture CPUs with a HDD can take HOURS to get me a syncd wallet.

So, it could be an hour, depending on how beefy the mymonero servers are. This amount of work is why it costs 10 xmr.

Heart rises back up into chest...

Thanks for the detailed explanation, much appreciated.

Its about sharing

Did you perhaps generate your seed from MoneroAddress.org? If so, see -> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.12206473

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: GingerAle on August 27, 2015, 11:03:03 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on August 27, 2015, 10:56:09 AM

Has anyone done an import (paper wallet) using the seed words into MyMonero?
I just tried, it asked me for the words, then it verified the 10 Monero fee, I accepted, then I came into an empty wallet.
How much time should it take to get the funds to appear in MyMonero?

Thx in advance,
IAS

have you ever recreated a wallet using the import from electrum seed on your home PC?

basically, the wallet has to refresh from blocktime 0, so right now mymonero's backend is scanning through the entirety of the blockchain looking for the inputs you own. This scanning can take A WHILE. I know my poor xeon core-architecture CPUs with a HDD can take HOURS to get me a syncd wallet.

So, it could be an hour, depending on how beefy the mymonero servers are. This amount of work is why it costs 10 xmr.

Heart rises back up into chest...

Thanks for the detailed explanation, much appreciated.

Its about sharing

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1776. (Read 3313576 times)