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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1778. (Read 3313576 times)

legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 25, 2015, 02:47:55 PM
I succeeded to scoop some xmr also today at 0.002075. I do not regret it.  Grin

And now I am just hoping it goes even lower so that I am able to buy some more even cheaper coins (am I driven by the greed?).  Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 3220
Merit: 1363
www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games
August 25, 2015, 02:25:33 PM
From the last time I checked the price, Monero has gone cheaper than ever. This could be a great opportunity to grow my stack of XMR even more  Roll Eyes
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
August 25, 2015, 01:34:53 PM
the level is not yet reached where current holders step in big time.
Most know they will most likely be able to get it even cheaper if btc continues to fall more, which is what it most likely will do Smiley
 
dont know where that level is. 30 cents? 25?

i can only ask myself. if it goes to 0.25$? maybe i'll have to buy a shitload of it;D

its always depending on timeframe too ofc. if it goes to 0.10$? max yolo i guess Cheesy
legendary
Activity: 861
Merit: 1010
August 25, 2015, 03:27:21 AM
My biggest concern with Bitcoin XT remains the built in 8GB blocksize limit.

That's a possible concern but remember it won't reach 8 GB until 2036. The initial increase is only to 8 MB then doubling every two years. Now putting aside the whole debate over whether blocks should be large or how large, it seems to me that if you are going to go the route of scaling up by increasing the block size then this could very much be a problem again before 2036. Let's say in a year or so Bitcoin has started to take off and 8 MB isn't bit enough. You will have to wait another 18 months for the increase to 16 MB and even then that is only a relatively small increase.

So I see potential speed bumps with the approach that is being taken even if you accept with Gavin and Mike say about being able to scale up the technology to use very large blocks (using IBLT and whatever). On the plus side with Gavin and Mike firmly in charge there is the possibility they could push through another hard fork (to raise the block size more quickly) if needed more easily. But then you have to ask about centralization and whether two guys firmly in charge could do something stupid too, and break it all.
Mike Hearn makes good points about development centralization there: https://groups.google.com/forum/#!msg/bitcoin-xt/PBjK0BuB7s4/8LREpcaNBQAJ
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
August 25, 2015, 03:18:16 AM
Bitcoin maximalism is, IMO, extremely unrealistic and reflects a cartoonish view of the world.

I have been both a silver maximalist and Bitcoin maximalist before, even fiat maximalist in my very early years prior to the Nasdaq bubble, and I have to +1.

You have found Bitcoin, and now your life has ended. Sounds about as compelling as replacing "Bitcoin" with "Jesus"?  Shocked
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 25, 2015, 02:49:15 AM
My biggest concern with Bitcoin XT remains the built in 8GB blocksize limit.

That's a possible concern but remember it won't reach 8 GB until 2036. The initial increase is only to 8 MB then doubling every two years. Now putting aside the whole debate over whether blocks should be large or how large, it seems to me that if you are going to go the route of scaling up by increasing the block size then this could very much be a problem again before 2036. Let's say in a year or so Bitcoin has started to take off and 8 MB isn't bit enough. You will have to wait another 18 months for the increase to 16 MB and even then that is only a relatively small increase.

So I see potential speed bumps with the approach that is being taken even if you accept with Gavin and Mike say about being able to scale up the technology to use very large blocks (using IBLT and whatever). On the plus side with Gavin and Mike firmly in charge there is the possibility they could push through another hard fork (to raise the block size more quickly) if needed more easily. But then you have to ask about centralization and whether two guys firmly in charge could do something stupid too, and break it all.



legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 25, 2015, 12:34:44 AM
I am firmly on the large block side, since all the tracking, TOR blocking aspects of Bitcoin XT are not part of the hard fork. So another wallet can come and strip all these objectionable aspects of Bitcoin XT without the need for any further hard fork. What this does however is complicate the blocksize debate even more since there are legitimate concerns with all of these  "add ons" to Bitcoin XT. One thing is becoming clear here no matter which side Core or XT "wins" Monero stands to gain since it addresses the concerns of both sides of the debate.

My biggest concern with Bitcoin XT remains the built in 8GB blocksize limit.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
August 25, 2015, 12:34:34 AM
I think soon it will not be that hard to overtake bitcoin's market capitalization.
Bitcoin is falling like a rock and in my opinion, will not go up from here. I think we will see some downlegs before the markets calm down in order to start a new down leg.  Grin

Monero, on the other hand,  is a bargain and I am not convinced there will not be any individual with higher risk appetite who would not start buying some major amounts of Moneros (and I am not speaking about 100 000 XMR or so which represents only a little over 1 week's emission). I am speaking here a bet of a million(s) usd from VC type of investors.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
August 25, 2015, 12:22:54 AM
My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.

My long term faith in btc will depend in part on the xt debate. It tor blacklisting is allowed with xt btc will be substantially harmed. Ironically this may end up being great news for xmr, bbr, aeon, etc

IF XT really takes over the network I'm afraid the worst is yet to come based on what I have been reading


hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
August 24, 2015, 11:17:09 PM
My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.

My long term faith in btc will depend in part on the xt debate. It tor blacklisting is allowed with xt btc will be substantially harmed. Ironically this may end up being great news for xmr, bbr, aeon, etc
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1018
August 24, 2015, 10:51:04 PM
I'm super bearish on BTC as well (finally) and as such, it's hard to see alts holding up in a downtrending bitcoin environment when the overwhelming majority of volume is transacted in base BTC. Unfortunate because the last batch of BTC I bought was around $288 which I will be dumping for a loss here and sitting in fiat.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
August 24, 2015, 10:31:08 PM
My confidence in BTC is pretty low. I see it as a very, very poorly managed cryptocurrency. BitShares, for example, is run like a business. The delegates who secure the transactions function as board members who have to provide services to the network. Feeds for stock/currency pegs, software development, marketing, etc. If they don't provide those services adequately, they get voted out. Other alts, like XMR have the blocksize/scalability issue already fixed. If bitcoin doesn't get it together, I think the top alts can come out of nowhere and cannibalize bitcoin's marketshare.

BTC may be Myspace.Facebook, Twitter, Snapchat, Instagram, and Linkedin are about to rise. XMR is one of them.

I don't see BTC as safe at all.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 24, 2015, 09:52:35 PM
...
I agree, but I was making the case why you might not view holding even premium alts as a full substitute for holding BTC. If all crypto fails then it doesn't matter which you hold.

I agree. Premium alts are not full substitute for holding BTC. A significant fiat component is a must here. The more interesting question is how will various alts behave in both the bear and bull scenarios. In both overall crypto bear and bull markets there will be significant differences. In this particular case since the cause of this crypto bear market is the fixed blocksize limit in Bitcoin. My take is that how a particular alt deals with this issue will, over the long term have a very significant impact on that alt's performance in both the bear and even the bull case.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 24, 2015, 09:16:45 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.


I think the real bear case is if crypto just doesn't succeed full stop.

I agree, but I was making the case why you might not view holding even premium alts as a full substitute for holding BTC. If all crypto fails then it doesn't matter which you hold.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
August 24, 2015, 09:11:16 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.


I've read the theory from the bitcoin maximalist camp such as the guys from the Nakamoto Institute. They write about how all altcoins are snakeoil scams and how bitcoin will take over everything including the USD. It was convincing to me back in 2013, but as I've watched the blooming of altcoins in 2014 and the way that altcoins have refused to die, and the way many cultures and languages and other collective phenomena refuse to die, it's become less and less convincing. You could make the same maximalist arguments about social networks, but in reality we see that one network doesn't take over. Russia and Brazil and many other countries have decided to use other networks even though Facebook is accessible. Language bubbles are a factor. Ybcoin is popular in China and almost all of the ybcoin discussion takes place in Chinese. And with altcoins, in addition to language bubbles, we have legitimate niches. Bitcoin has already shown itself to be extremely resistant to change. Chances are, bitcoin is not going to adopt XMR's fungibility into its protocol. Bitcoin maximalism is, IMO, extremely unrealistic and reflects a cartoonish view of the world.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
August 24, 2015, 08:41:53 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

Yes but for the hedge to work a substantial fiat postion say 75% - 80% is needed. The point is that alts have a much higher beta than Bitcoin, so in most cases they will drop also in terms of Bitcoin. As for the alts above I say that PPC and NMC are ok choices as for ETH my take is no. XMR is very attactive here since it does not have the blocksize problem that got Bitcoin into this mess in the first place. Most other POW, and even some POS alts have a similar blocksize problem.


Edit: The fiat part of the position is the bear case. My take is that If one holds an alt out side of the hedge it must not have the blocksize problem.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
August 24, 2015, 08:36:14 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.


I think the real bear case is if crypto just doesn't succeed full stop.

The recent shenanigans regarding btc development has demonstrated just how immature and ill-prepared crypto is for the wider world.  I'm not saying its btc or nothing but btc has to break into the real mainstream on some sort of level before the world will accept crypto as a viable thing. Otherwise everything else will be met with the same scorn as a failed btc project, imo.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
August 24, 2015, 08:32:34 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.

I basically agree but let me state the bear case. There may come a time, perhaps unexpectedly, when BTC pulls away, posts large gains, and its network effect becomes prohibitive. The crypto wars will then be over and only BTC will remain standing, with the rest declining virtually to zero. This is essentially the Bitcoin Maximalist view expressed in a more market neutral manner. I don't necessarily believe it, but I don't consider it impossible either.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
August 24, 2015, 08:28:23 PM
My bots warmly welcome fud storms and volatile markets. I am in no way afraid of btc dropping to $87 as im fully confident that would be a temporary price point and parhaps a good place to once and for all shake some of these gorrilla-bears out of the market. Some see DOOM, i see opportunity. I feel for anyone staring at their balances dropping, but I personally am quite interested in playing in a volatile scare-fest.

In any case If I am wrong and Bitcoin goes to the moon, then all I need is for Monero to appreciate 5x in terms of Bitcoin to say 0.01 to 0.012 for my hedge to work. Given the past performance of most alt-coins during a Bitcoin boom this is actually conservative. In effect I have allocated a small portion of my Monero holdings as a hedge against a fall of the value of the Canadian Dollar in terms of Bitcoin.

I also expect established alts like XMR to go up 5-10x against BTC as BTC goes up 5-10x against the USD. Possibly 100x gains. So now I think to myself: why even bother with holding BTC? A basket of established alts (e.g. XMR+PPC+NMC+ETH, etc.) collectively have as good a chance of surviving as bitcoin does. Maybe a better chance. And more upside.
hero member
Activity: 888
Merit: 500
August 24, 2015, 08:10:31 PM
wow $0.40 per xmr Grin

like i am said, monero is going nowhere but down Cheesy Wink

you  guys should had listening to me Undecided

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