[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1817.

smooth

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:39:21 AM

People were buying AND MINING a lot lower than 0.0022 for a significant period of time. Lets also not forget there was a chance to 2x - 3x your money during 2-4 swings between 0.001 and 0.002 and 2 swings between 0.003 and 0.008.

The original comment was not talking about 2x-3x.

Quote

Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet... Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money.

And it's true. For comparison look at the all time price chart of BTC, even today with BTC being down 75% from the peak. It's still up 100x from early prices.

Maybe there is some brilliant or lucky trader who managed to string together some 2x-3x swings with no losses and turn it into a 10x. That's still not 100x...

Likewise it was asked if early miners made 10x-100x. Very few did, and only on a few coins. The ec2 whales you were talking about, by your numbers, barely made 2x. Even if that turns out to be a bit low, it's not 100x.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:03:02 AM

XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

When are you planning to do it? My ask price of coins that I am swing trading goes up 5 % on every Friday.

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 10:08:00 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:55:38 AM

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

Of that I have no doubt. But hang on I thought you didn't sell any

In general and weighted over 2 weeks I agree with you. During the 1000btc volume days however it certainly was possible to exit 5% of the daily volume over the weighted average for that day. I've done it!

And it is irrefutable that it was possible to sell more than 6k XMR over 0.00865, again I did it. The average is not weighted by volume. 99% of the daily volume could have been at 0.009 and above. With a daily candlestick it is not possible to tell, it is only possible to tell what the average price on that day was, the open, close, highs and lows.

He sold at 0.0058.

luigi1111

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:52:46 AM

Quote from: pandher on August 04, 2015, 09:20:44 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

I guess this is one of the key points. Hopefully we'll look back and laugh about a handful of people making a few 100k. My issue is just with propagating this idea that there hasnt been some 'big' (depending on your definition of big) money already been made with this coin.

I think it's pretty generally agreeable that "big money" (with the backdrop of BTC and LTC) does not describe Monero. You're basically saying with near perfect trading (or you were dga/pttx) you could've made, say, 100-200k USD. Very very few people could've actually done what you describe, as the market is so small still.

In "success" stories (they've not nearly succeeded yet) such as BTC and LTC, multiple people made millions. We're talking ~1 billion+ market caps that came out of almost nothing. Monero's highest market cap was what, 7-8 million? It also started with a higher market cap because of the alt-boom going on at the time.

Anyway, congrats on your profitable trading.

dreamspark

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Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:55:38 AM

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

Of that I have no doubt. But hang on I thought you didn't sell any Wink

In general and weighted over 2 weeks I agree with you. During the 1000btc volume days however it certainly was possible to exit 5% of the daily volume over the weighted average for that day. I've done it!

And it is irrefutable that it was possible to sell more than 6k XMR over 0.00865, again I did it. The average is not weighted by volume. 99% of the daily volume could have been at 0.009 and above. With a daily candlestick it is not possible to tell, it is only possible to tell what the average price on that day was, the open, close, highs and lows.

blacky90

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How high do you guys estimate the probability that monero will be tradet above $20 in the next 2 years?

dreamspark

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Quote from: saddambitcoin on August 04, 2015, 09:54:01 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

XMR was not traded on Mintpal at the time of the rally to 0.01, IIRC the rally was hyped because of Mintpal anticipation.

Hmmmm.

Just looked. Yes you're right my mistake, it was Trex that was also trading XMR at the time and that did have several 100btc of volume around that high.

rpietila

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:39:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:20:09 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856.

Dude, I have probably traded more XMR in Poloniex than you. I am saying that there are certain practical limits for entering/exiting a position and one is that if you don't normally have trading volume, and suddenly want to buy/sell a higher % of the daily volume than 5%, it affects the price. You can try it safely any time by deciding a 2-week period, and trying to buy/sell 70,000 XMR at a better price than the weighted average during the time.

You can't do it.

As for the rest of my post, I am trying to bring the voice of reason and introduce scenarios that have let's say at least a 50% chance of actually having happened last summer. The others can bring in the theoretical edge cases, if that's their speciality.

thefunkybits

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:39:21 AM

Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:20:09 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856. Despite the price being above that figure for 8+ hours, there being several 100 btc volume and the fact as I said there was around the same sort of volume on mintpal (in fact if I remember rightly mintpal hit higher than 0.01)

I think youre misinterpreting what hes saying.
120K XMR were sold around 0.007 - 0.01 at an average of 0.00856.
A maximum of 6000 XMR could be traded at the peak (so 0.01)

TrueCryptonaire

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Recently as Monero has declined the volumes are low but when the price rises the volumes are usually larger. This shows to me the bears are weaker than the bulls. A part of the reason for this (who wants to dump XMR at these lows) is the declining block reward which has dropped almost 50 % from the launch.

saddambitcoin

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

XMR was not traded on Mintpal at the time of the rally to 0.01, IIRC the rally was hyped because of Mintpal anticipation.

dreamspark

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Quote from: pandher on August 04, 2015, 09:20:44 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

I guess this is one of the key points. Hopefully we'll look back and laugh about a handful of people making a few 100k. My issue is just with propagating this idea that there hasnt been some 'big' (depending on your definition of big) money already been made with this coin.

dreamspark

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Quote from: rpietila on August 04, 2015, 09:20:09 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

So your saying that nobody sold more than 6k at a price above 0.00856. Despite the price being above that figure for 8+ hours, there being several 100 btc volume and the fact as I said there was around the same sort of volume on mintpal (in fact if I remember rightly mintpal hit higher than 0.01)

LOL Cheesy

People were buying AND MINING a lot lower than 0.0022 for a significant period of time. Lets also not forget there was a chance to 2x - 3x your money during 2-4 swings between 0.001 and 0.002 and 2 swings between 0.003 and 0.008.

jehst

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21 million. I want them all.

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 08:17:48 AM

Quote from: jehst on August 04, 2015, 07:53:10 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 07:41:58 AM

Quote from: smooth on August 03, 2015, 08:52:02 PM

Quote from: vokain on August 03, 2015, 08:43:54 PM

Quote from: americanpegasus on August 03, 2015, 08:39:18 PM

Quote from: s1gs3gv on August 03, 2015, 08:33:10 PM

Speaking of Monero speculation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of speculation in Monero … just a nice steady coin with a thoughtful and focused development team with their eyes on the prize - private transactions and fungability. When the approaching 'Great Deflation' in crypto occurs, I predict Monero will be one of the last coins standing..

But I am just speculating …

Looking at the all time price chart the other day I realized that no one has really made any money on Monero yet... Well, not crazy 10x or 100x money. As fluffy has said, the primary motivation for this is to be a currency, not get rich, but if we are lucky enough to be the premier private global ledger then we will need to be "inflated" enough to be able to send a billion dollars or two across the blockchain without any severe volatility occurring from someone buying in or selling out.

That can only mean one thing, and the greedy human in me likes it. The philanthropist is keeping him on a tight leash though, and thinking of things like Job Centers for the homeless and pay-what-you-want restaurants.

Early miners?

Very early miners made some (I was one of them), and some very early buyers too, but the price and hash rate of the coin skyrocketed pretty fast, so both were short-lived opportunities and didn't involve that many coins.

Within two weeks of launch it already traded at 0.0017 BTC, and BTC was more like 500 USD, making that a loss today (and for most of the history) in USD terms. (old OTC thread)

dga and his miner optimizing effort made about 100-200K USD, I think (I'm not sure he's ever said how much they made exactly but that was the impression I got).

If you traded on the swings well you could have made a bit of money, especially on the Mintpal pump up to 0.01.

But it is true that no BIG money has been made on this coin yet.

Yes and no. As an early miner on ec2 I certainly made good money. At one point one of the miners had over half the hashrate and a quarter of a mil ec2 bill. The same miner also sold me 30k+ coins at 0.0008 when cryptonote exchange dipped that low. Playing the several swings from 0.001-0.002 that we had plus offloading a nice amount during the mintpal pump has certainly made it a profitable coin to say the least. Big money as in millions ? Probably not. Big money as in 10's or 100's of thousands. Sure. Also depends on if you held btc or cashed out to fiat. 30k coins at 0.0008 to 0.008-0.01 was approx 24btc - 200+btc. Selling that profit at $500 per btc = $100,000.

The post that you're quoting already acknowledges that people have made up to 100-200k. He's simply not considering that to be BIG money.

I'm quoting the conversation but clearly mainly replying to the poster saying nobodies made 10x or 100x gains. Which isn't true. I'm adding another perspective giving my first hand experience plus smooth is saying he thinks that's how much dga made from the impression he got not how much he knows he made.

Whats your problem?

No problem. I'm just saying that no one has made any real money when you look at even the best case scenarios considering the volume traded. But this is optimistic. It means that we, as pioneers, can earn the first XMR fortunes.

Abiky

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www.Crypto.Games: Multiple coins, multiple games

Let's wait and see for Monero to reach at least $1. There would be good profits...I dunno Grin

pandher

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Stagnation is Death

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

100k-200k is nothing if we truly understand the scope of technology we are talking about.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 09:11:08 AM

Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

1011 BTC worth of XMR (118,071 XMR) was traded at the average price of 0.00856 BTC/XMR that day. If you fantasize about someone being able to buy low and sell at the peak, please use the average instead of the peak for sums that are <5% of the daily volume (ie max 6,000 XMR). If the sum is larger, you need to apply a discount to the daily average to get an actionable figure. It is hardly possible that a peak in price would have coincided to one player selling more than 10% of the volume anyway.

Thus a well-executed swing trade would have been possible to buy at about 0.00220 and sell 0.00856, for the amount of 6,000 XMR. This would have yielded BTC38, given perfect timing on both ends.

smooth

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Quote from: dreamspark on August 04, 2015, 09:03:36 AM

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually

Not all those traded at 0.01, but close. Still, I'm surprised to learn it was that much. I never saw the 1000+ BTC volume numbers on Polo, I guess I just wasn't paying very close attention. Crazy times.

dreamspark

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Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 08:52:41 AM

Sure, but that's not even a 2x return!

The point being made was nobody's made any real money out of XMR 2x $100,000? 90% of the posters here drool over the thought of that much money.

Quote from: smooth on August 04, 2015, 08:52:41 AM

I mean we were talking about one of those swings being selling at 0.01, the absolute peak -- how many coins even traded at that price? Not very many.

Polo shows a volume of 1000+ btc on the day the 0.01 peak was hit. Mintpal data is unavailable but I bet that wasn't less than half the polo volume. So approx 1500btc worth of coins traded. Quite a lot actually.

Digging deeper into the peak, we were at or around it (within 20%) for approx 10 hours during which time there was 100's of btc volume. Same again with the fact this was also happening at mintpal.

rpietila

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XMR liquidity in the Poloniex exchange is low. I need to make some high-volume trades for a client who requires public record of the transactions. So how about we all slowly gather to Poloniex, and are ready with our XMR so that the trades can happen?!

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1817. (Read 3313576 times)