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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1860. (Read 3314343 times)

hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
June 25, 2015, 06:41:54 PM
fluffypony et al designed an automated XMR buying tool that buys a certain amount every day, right? Perhaps some BTC-heavies are effectively canceling out the daily emission with daily accumulation buys. Neither group (buyers/ sellers) has unlimited ammunition. XMR's emission is certain to decrease every day. Buyers don't have unlimited BTC.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
June 25, 2015, 04:14:25 PM
price manages to be really stable for now. looking at a 3d chart it seems to me like the low volatility period we are experiencing right now is unusual. i still belive it will manage to build a nice base from somewhere around here, maybe we will have some more dips down, but maybe not  Grin

i'm disappointed by polo and they make it worse every day. not publishing the needed data is a small scandal and definetely not the way they should act.
once the fresh btc arrives (Cheesy) i will move some of them to bittrex.

legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
June 25, 2015, 06:08:14 AM
its interesting how the monero market behaves in that one can only speculate the accumulated holdings of individuals, as opposed to bitcoin (and every other non CN coin), wherein all holdings are known. I speculate that this causes a more "real" market behavior.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
June 25, 2015, 01:22:50 AM
10,000 XMR more is for lending part.
A lot of short positions were covered during the dump.
Almost all my Monero-denominated loans were returned, and yesterday I also got a great deal of my bitcoins back (perhaps due to this we had a little sell pressure yesterday).

Still there are some longs but I am expecting them to cover at loss (if taken for Monero).
I do not recommend to take any long positions on Monero as there is still a lot of coins that need to be sold to already Monero-saturated whales.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
June 24, 2015, 01:36:47 AM
it is all vague assumptions that we can do.

Be sure I'll quote you on that, mister strong-assertions-out-of-my-ass.


You can quote me but be sure to mention the source.
legendary
Activity: 1512
Merit: 1012
Still wild and free
June 23, 2015, 01:51:23 PM
it is all vague assumptions that we can do.

Be sure I'll quote you on that, mister strong-assertions-out-of-my-ass.
legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
June 23, 2015, 01:07:55 PM
I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.

It should be pretty apparent from that page. The answer is not really. The borrower has no choice in the matter of paying/not paying. What *could* happen is a market experiences atypical volatility and the borrower's account is unable to be settled with a positive balance. How real a risk this is depends on the market and Polo's algorithms, not the borrower.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
June 23, 2015, 12:44:39 PM
I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.

Try the trollbox or perhaps #poloniex on freenode. I am pretty sure someone has an answer for you there.
hero member
Activity: 1032
Merit: 502
June 23, 2015, 12:36:02 PM
I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.

Thank you for your reference, but those infos do not include the answer to my question.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
June 23, 2015, 12:06:17 PM
Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.


Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.

You are right that it means something, but interest rates can be manipulated as well for various reasons (small quantities can be loaned at very low rates).

Similarly market depth can be a clue that bid/ask spreads are being manipulated in a market. That is why level 2 quotes are important

I do not recommend trading on margin in a market where this data remains private. Insiders with access to the data have a huge advantage and with enough funds can force short squeezes by being able to predict price points where margin loans will be called in.

If you must trade on margin, keep your equity % as high as possible. However I don't recommend margin trading at all until the margin data is made public.

Based on my lending experience a short squeeze in a big deal is pretty unlikely since almost nobody is interested in borrowing Moneros right now.
There simply is a shortage of bears or bear-minded bulls in the marketplace.
On the other hand, bitcoin loans will disappear much faster (this could be due to the fact that btc is borrowed also trading Dash etc - however XMR usually have the most volume in Polo so I would assume that is a bigger player than the other currencies when it comes to trading with margin.

However, as you said, as long as Polo has something to hide with the data, it is all vague assumptions that we can do.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
June 23, 2015, 11:56:05 AM
I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?

I guess you can obtain your answer from here -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading

Don't have time to read it thorougly now.
hero member
Activity: 1032
Merit: 502
June 23, 2015, 11:54:01 AM
I`m interested in lending money on Polo. Is there a chance that the borrower of the funds does not pay me my money and runs away?
hero member
Activity: 686
Merit: 500
June 23, 2015, 10:29:07 AM
Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.


Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.

You are right that it means something, but interest rates can be manipulated as well for various reasons (small quantities can be loaned at very low rates).

Similarly market depth can be a clue that bid/ask spreads are being manipulated in a market. That is why level 2 quotes are important

I do not recommend trading on margin in a market where this data remains private. Insiders with access to the data have a huge advantage and with enough funds can force short squeezes by being able to predict price points where margin loans will be called in.

If you must trade on margin, keep your equity % as high as possible. However I don't recommend margin trading at all until the margin data is made public.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
June 23, 2015, 09:37:07 AM
Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.


Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

Hello,

Thank you for your question.
That info is available indirectly.
You need to follow how the interest rates goes.
Please bear in mind, it is a little bit biased way to follow it since btc is used for longing several currencies while xmr is used only against btc in margin trading.
But still you can see which way the short/long ratio is moving.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
June 23, 2015, 06:15:05 AM
Thank you. I hope they'll publish shorts-longs data soon, it would be very helpful to us.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
June 23, 2015, 06:02:28 AM
Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.


Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?

[1] shorts/longs ratio are not published publicly yet. However, poloniex said this would change in the foreseeable future.

[2] As far as I know, poloniex is currently the only exchange offering margin trading for altcoins.
sr. member
Activity: 462
Merit: 250
June 23, 2015, 05:47:07 AM
Now it would be good to have some people were shorting since Monero is about a lose its liquidity.
If there were open shorts, there would be more liquidity in the dumps as the shorters want to cover and exit their positions.


Where I can see shorts/longs ratio? Only poloniex allows using leveraging tool in XMR?
legendary
Activity: 1456
Merit: 1000
June 21, 2015, 10:45:50 PM
what a broken record
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
June 21, 2015, 06:39:39 AM
My previous post

Let's do an update of my previous chart:


I assumed an exponential uptrend. We touched the linear downtrend in the short term yesterday.

Long term log chart is showing a nice wedge. This wedge closes around 0.0028 in august.
I assume that when the wedge is broken to the upside, én the 23.6% fib level is also cleared, we will see the exchnage rate going > 0.0043 in a short period.
Long term exponential trendline suggests that the exhcnage rate will reach 0.01 BTC at the end of march 2016



Yes, but now we are starting to drop.

Yesterday we had tons of shorters - today the lending market is completely dead.
Only investors have been covering their short positions and no new shorters in the markets... I am afraid it cannot continue like this.
I wish Polo would soon publish some information on the long/short ratios so I am not the only one talking here.

Any trader understands a situation where there is no shorters is not a healthy situation.

What comes to your graphs, they are not bullish nor bearish. A triangle which is pretty neutral... Only your interpretation sounds like it is a bargain to buy Monero this expensive.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1000
Want privacy? Use Monero!
June 21, 2015, 06:13:06 AM
My previous post

Let's do an update of my previous chart:


I assumed an exponential uptrend. We touched the linear downtrend in the short term yesterday.

Long term log chart is showing a nice wedge. This wedge closes around 0.0028 in august.
I assume that when the wedge is broken to the upside, én the 23.6% fib level is also cleared, we will see the exchnage rate going > 0.0043 in a short period.
Long term exponential trendline suggests that the exhcnage rate will reach 0.01 BTC at the end of march 2016

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