Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1855. (Read 3314350 times)

It is the "sticky price" phenomenon that has previously manifested itself in "trading ranges". When the price or exchange rate is relatively steady for a longer time (let's say 2 months), the market participants start to "enforce" it in their trades, refusing to buy higher or sell lower.

With BTC, we had the original electricity cost era of <$0.01, then the $1 before the bubble in 2011, the next one was at $5 and then about $10 later in 2012, then some at $120 in 2013, and now $220ish. Each time the price held its ground a "long" time after fundamentals already warranted a rise, and when the rise finally began, it often overshoot.

The trading range I originally prescribed to Monero in May 2014, was BTC0.002-0.004. The prediction was not bad at all, if you look at the reality during the year. Now we are at the lower end of the range, with a project that is still alive with all the major contributors.

Trading ranges with sticky prices tend to make people incredibly myopic - they start to seriously regard 0.0017 as cheap and 0.0023 as expensive. The logarithmic nature of price increase is all but forgotten, until it happens, taking all by surprise.

Both 0.0017, 0.0023, 0.01 and even 0.1 are cheap if Monero makes it. (If it does not, there is no difference how many monero you have in your bag which is worth $0 anyway.)

Yes it is summer and the mood in the markets is according. I don't forecast a quick rise in price before new money comes. There are some signs of price stickiness around

Lack of ANC github activity has caused me to lose hope of any Zerocoin implementation. CryptoNote exists, the future is now. #XMR #BBR

Tweeted to 1000+ followers

I think that most people using LTC as a fast "vessel" towards moving funds from one place to another. Generally speaking, the transactions with BTCs are a lot slower than those with LTCs. That may explain the prior pumps every time BTC is on the move. If you check historical data you will see that most of the times it was LTC (sometimes PPC & NMC also) that first moved, with BTC following. I *think* there was a text that presented this fact back in 2013, but I cannot really remember if it was an actual post here or an article on some crypto-coin site.

Litecoin is a "noob trap" or "alternates for noobs".  People brand new to cryptocurrency will load up coinmarketcap or a similar website, and they see Litecoin at #2 / #3 and see it is virtually identical to Bitcoin, so they figure a higher capitalization & volume than rest of the alternates indicates it is a better investment.  This is why Litecoin has consistently always been able to go through pump and dumps.  It's a great short term investment but long term...

They could not be more wrong.  As your post suggested - no one wants to be holding Litecoin the day when a serious alternate rivals Bitcoin.  Right now no alternates really rival Bitcoin, beyond cheap clones like Litecoin and Doge, but that will change when one of the serious alternates develops products and services people need.  Bitcoin itself is only 100,000 users after 6 years.  You just need the one decent product and you will get more users than Bitcoin and the day that happens no one wants to be holding a hot potato like Litecoin.

It is always lower than the spot price.

I've not seen where it is possible to have a pegged sidechain (of any kind) that is sound, secure, and decentralized. It looks like voodoo economics to me. Sure the cryptography works, I'm convinced of that, but as an economic system, I'm not convinced at all.

But in any case the same cryptography can be used to create sidechains of Monero and even make the Bitcoin main chain a sidechain of Monero, and these will work or not work to exactly the same extent that Bitcoin's sidechains do. I don't really see where it changes much of anything in terms of people wanting to speculate on different assets or bundles of assets.

LTC:USD has nearly tripled in anticipation of the block reward halving 50+ days from now. As a currency, it has zero actual use. Doesn't make much sense to me. The crash will be amusing but I won't pretend that I can time it. The market can stay irrational far longer than I can stay solvent. XMR:BTC went from .001x to .004x. BTC:USD went from 100s to $1000 and fell to a stable value in the $200s.

Clearly cryptocurrencies can overshoot their stable values by 2x or 4x or 20x. And you don't know which it's going to be until it's over.

This is certainly possible. Once found usefull by a large enough userbase, there could be bubbles just like that. I think it's just a matter of time until the crypto world shifts to more anonymous coins. People just need to realise the true value of privacy.

I believe the rise of LTC is a forecast for Monero, LTC is pretty useless, it just has the advantage that it is still firmly established as the #2 coin.

LTC will probably see great gains if BTC bubbles again and it will probably crash as hard after as it did in 2014.

But if BTC bubbles more and more people will also be increasingly interested in privacy focussed coins, people have like 0 privacy these days and they know it because of Wikileaks etc.

By now increasingly more people know that Bitcoin isn't as anonymous as everyone thought, this means more and more people will flock to coins like Monero (mostly I believe it is firmly at the top of privacy focussed coins).

Don't sell your coins to early when a bubble happens, just look at the % gains LTC made in 2013.

wasn't maxwell here because of that?

no seriously, it's sad those comments get burried so fast. but the real discussion about this was/is in the gold collapsing-bitcoin up thread anyway. monero was not mentioned too often, but everyone was thinking about it for sure

i still dont know the truth, i think only a few know. if its really possible to have a real functioning RSSC without telling what goes in an out? how will it be secured? how pegged if at all? so many questions, i better just stay with monero

if tptb_need_war makes an RS coin i will maybe buy some too

Sure, perhaps the chains will be pegged. Hooray open source. I'm sure someone will come up with some wiz-snap bandoogle way to do it.

xmr.to is kinda that already , there's just some centralization to it still. Once monero gets some check_lock_time_have_a_banana functionality, then xmr.to morphs to a decentralized exchange-type thing and then there are parades.

Could this also be argument to peg the two chains, at least as long as it's useful (if it is)?

Edit: I apologize for any ignorance on this topic

Thanks for the update.

Don't you realize you're supposed to put several !s followed by several 1s? Like this!!!11

Also, you're such a lifesaver.

Please believe me, monero is a very bad Investment!!
Sooner or later, polo get hacked and monero will much dead by then!!!!
Don't invest your lifesaving in this!!!!!

Trojan horse/fluffypony

Bitcoin - a trojan horse with monero inside

Just let it past the gates and see what happens.

Now its pretty clear to me why Bitcoin got an easy pass in the media (bad news is good news) and with the regulators, it must be a big joke to them how it favors the system. Monero is a new battle.

XMR isn't really dropping, the USD price is holding steady around 50 cents.

Looking at the historical price range, cheap XMR would be below 0.002.  

0.002 to - 0.0017 seem to be good and rare opportunities to add to your stash. 0.0017 - 0.0015 are mostly wigs down. Everything below (for a longer timeperiod and without immediate bounce back up) is just wishfull thinking nowadays IMO. Always keep an eye on the upside/downside potential.