[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1882.

virtualx

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LOTEO

Quote from: americanpegasus on May 31, 2015, 05:20:52 AM

Quote from: catena5260 on May 30, 2015, 10:46:47 PM

Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Can you please link to the comment or provide the rationale behind this graph?

I wonder about the exact same thing. Why would the next big rise happen in 2019? What will happen in 2019 that makes it go up like this? Is it financial crisis or another reason?

nioc

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Is it true?

mrkavasaki

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Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

lol witch rise? there will be no "significant" rise, even not in the future!
monero is going nowhere but down. we will see prices below 0.001 soon

Unbelive

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Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

If as "significant" you mean to reach new ATH, then at least for longer period of time i doubt it will happen this year.

Siexpert

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I doubt that Bitcoin will stay in the 150-300$ range for 3 years from now on. Also that chart isn't correct even if it's a logarithmic one: currently we are not at the same level like the top of the bubble in mid-2011. Also predictions on logarithmic scale for multiple year timeframes are impossible in my opinion (see https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-btcusd-price-prediction-4000-6500-by-augustseptember-2014-686745 for example). Even if the reasoning behind them seems OK, there are simply too many unknown factors which can influence the price.

americanpegasus

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Quote from: catena5260 on May 30, 2015, 10:46:47 PM

Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Can you please link to the comment or provide the rationale behind this graph?

dEBRUYNE

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Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 03:40:11 AM

Quote from: pinky on May 31, 2015, 02:49:55 AM

Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 02:06:59 AM

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.

Thanks for the analysis, appreciate it. I got one little remark, after 0.0043 is broken, we will still stumble upon 2 heavy resistances, 0.0051 & 0.0058 (which were previous tops). If these two get broken as well, we might see 0.01 indeed.

iCEBREAKER

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Quote from: ArticMine on May 30, 2015, 08:56:07 PM

It was the 1MB blocksize issue that brought me to Monero in the first place.

What's the UXTO growth situation for Monero?

I assume since it's a different codebase, the stack won't overflow like Bitcoin's.

Siexpert

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Quote from: pinky on May 31, 2015, 02:49:55 AM

Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 02:06:59 AM

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

There is no exact formula to calculate probability in markets like in statistics, so the 80% means I'm pretty sure an uptrend will start, but unexpected events, like a bitcoin crash sub 200$ or some bad news about Monero can invalidate every trading analysis prediction.
I have chosen the 3 months period because the last price rise and fall cycle took about 3 months. I think the price has a good chance to go up to the 0.004 level again this summer. If the 0.0043 top is broken, then 0.01 might be the next target. If the price fails to break the 0.0043 level, then the price will return to the current levels or maybe even lower. But again, the 3 month period is only valid if the price starts to rise now. If the near-term bottom at 0.001678 is broken, then the price can go pretty fast to 0.001.

All of above if pure speculation based on trading analysis: observing trends and support/resistance levels in the past and making conclusions based on the most frequent price evolution patterns. But it is not a 100% accurate tool of predicting the future.

I hold about 30% of my crypto wealth in Monero and I'm bullish right now both on shorter (weeks-months) and longer term.

pinky

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Quote from: Siexpert on May 31, 2015, 02:06:59 AM

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months.

80% - how did you come up with these number?
3 months - why are you so confident in timing?

Siexpert

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Quote from: TrueCryptonaire on May 30, 2015, 08:34:21 PM

Quote from: mmortal03 on May 30, 2015, 05:44:04 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 29, 2015, 12:55:42 AM

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

My original and offtopicish comment was due to Risto's antisemitistic posts on his Facwebook where he spreads the propaganda Neo-Nazis which are even pretty well-known by the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo).

But now enough of this off-topic. Back to the bearish trend of Monero which has only dead-cat rallies these days. The price drops 20-30 % and rises only 10-15 % making the bearish trend possible and creating the desperate bagholder community which every now and then makes the silly pumping posts on the threads and are trolling me who (as usual) is right when it comes to the trend.

The RSI divergence is pretty obvious already, so my predictions are that there is a 80% chance we won't see 0.0016 in the next 3 months. Be careful with TrueCryptonaire's posts, he was recommending to buy at the 0.004 top because "it's a nice base for a rocket". But buying at 0.004 is far not that bad than selling at 0.002, if Monero will succeed.

Here is the 1 day chart to see what I'm talking about:

http://i59.tinypic.com/i1d4oy.png

kazuki49

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Quote from: catena5260 on May 30, 2015, 10:46:47 PM

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Thats pretty much how long I'm willing to hold, it helps that the tail emission will only start in may 2022.

ArticMine

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Monero Core Team

Quote from: catena5260 on May 30, 2015, 10:46:47 PM

Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

Under normal circumstances I would agree with you, but what is keeping XBT down right now is the uncertainty over the 1 MB blocksize limit. XMR is the leading alt-coin that does not have this issue. So it takes only a very small amount of hedging people selling XBT for fiat but also buying a small amount of XMR as a hedge to markedly impact the price of XMR to the upside.

Edit: What has a better risk to return ratio in most scenarios: A 75% USD, 25% XMR or B 100% XBT? I say the issue of the 1MB blocksize limit makes A the far superior choice both in terms of the upside potential and the downside risk.

catena5260

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Quote from: blacky90 on May 30, 2015, 05:30:29 PM

i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

No.

Alts will rise when BTC rises, what may take several years.

See this picture, taken from the wall observer thread:

According to the picture, the next big rise will happen in 2019

ArticMine

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Activity: 2282

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Monero Core Team

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1074701.0;all

This is potentially explosive and Monero is the leading alt-coin that is not affected by the 1MB blocksize limit. Selling XBT for a combination of XMR and a major fiat currency USD, EUR, CAD, GBP, CHF, JPY, AUD etc., may turn out to be a smart defensive move in this market.

It was the 1MB blocksize issue that brought me to Monero in the first place.

Edit: Interesting poll. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1075431.0;all

TrueCryptonaire

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Quote from: mmortal03 on May 30, 2015, 05:44:04 PM

Quote from: rpietila on May 29, 2015, 12:55:42 AM

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

My original and offtopicish comment was due to Risto's antisemitistic posts on his Facwebook where he spreads the propaganda Neo-Nazis which are even pretty well-known by the Finnish Security Intelligence Service (Supo).

But now enough of this off-topic. Back to the bearish trend of Monero which has only dead-cat rallies these days. The price drops 20-30 % and rises only 10-15 % making the bearish trend possible and creating the desperate bagholder community which every now and then makes the silly pumping posts on the threads and are trolling me who (as usual) is right when it comes to the trend.

mmortal03

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Quote from: rpietila on May 29, 2015, 12:55:42 AM

By Nazis, do you mean NSDAP? Or the ashkenazi who have projected their own actions to what Nazi stands for to most of people these days? Also is everyone who calls themselves Jew actually a Jew? Khazars in Israel are sterilizing the Ethiopian Jews (who have a longer history of being a part of the Jewry than the Khazars themselves!). Forced sterilization was taught to me to be a Nazi practice, so perhaps Israel=Nazi actually..

Um, the term "Ashkenazi" derives from Ashkenaz, whereas the term "Nazi" derives from Nationalsozialismus (National Socialism). The terms have nothing linguistically to do with each other. And, this is off-topic.

macsga

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Strange, yet attractive.

Pushed the price up a bit today. My average accumulation price now weights at 0.00219.

blacky90

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i know it is hard to guess but when do you guys expect a significant rise in prices?
do you think it will still be happen this year?

smooth

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Quote from: kazuki49 on May 30, 2015, 04:48:48 PM

Monero hasn't "fixed inflation" neither, the correct economic term is http://www.investopedia.com/terms/d/disinflation.asp

The more important consideration is whether the schedule is fixed and known in advance to everyone.

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1882. (Read 3314343 times)