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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1884. (Read 3314343 times)

legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
May 28, 2015, 11:33:12 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Heh, I was just in cypher's thread yesterday explaining how Monero enables defections that Bitcoin cannot.

Was just thinking a bit earlier while watching that exchange, I think his mentoring to me inadvertently is making me act the same way with Monero as he did with Bitcoin way back when. And I never did get to mine BTC, but I can proudly say that I was a MRO miner.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1072
Crypto is the separation of Power and State.
May 28, 2015, 11:28:37 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Heh, I was just in cypher's thread yesterday explaining how Monero enables defections that Bitcoin cannot.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
May 28, 2015, 05:50:55 PM
Circle is giving $5/~0.021 BTC for new users, which is about ~11.29 XMR at current prices Cheesy

https://twitter.com/circlebits/status/604001124258037761

You have to give some basic info, verify your e-mail and phone for 2fa, takes about 5-10 minutes.

Shame I've already done it. Someone has some bots going that raped this the last time they did it.
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
May 28, 2015, 03:31:06 PM
Circle is giving $5/~0.021 BTC for new users, which is about ~11.29 XMR at current prices Cheesy

https://twitter.com/circlebits/status/604001124258037761

You have to give some basic info, verify your e-mail and phone for 2fa, takes about 5-10 minutes.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 28, 2015, 03:27:45 PM
High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.



I'd only try that strategy if I owned the exchange and could see the stops exactly.

And yet some still doubt that the unregulated, non-transparent Chinese exchanges with high leverage ratios and pathetic GPG skills are crooked as all fuck. People just want to believe.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
May 28, 2015, 03:23:45 PM

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page


I know how you feel, I have asked the devs to abandon this sinking ship full of rats and holes that is bitcointalk, they wont hear, its doing harm to Monero having the majority of its discussion in an alien forum, about the rest of your rant, you just hate us cause you aint us.

Stills this forum in inevitable to get those to hear about Monero, who still didn´t. The GetMonero Forum is more like the Inner Circle for those people that did. BCT is like the Social Media Platform for Cryptos.

This is the convenient part to us, but for the ones like legit_chocolateface that may see Monero as a threat to their shitcoin investment, its a reason to troll, so pretty much everyone on crypto already knows about Monero, the next step now is getting in the ears of those who don't, and it cannot be this way IMO, buried in the bitcointalk - altcoin section some few threads of pure platinum bits among thousands of scams and trolls.

If all that was being done were threads on bitcointalk then you would be right and we are doomed. But that is not all that's being done. Monero has been on Let's Talk Bitcoin, David has done some live talks, there were a series of meetups all over Europe this month, etc. We're also on reddit, twitter, and we have our own forum. (Though the last is the absolute worst way to reach any new people, almost by definition.) Finally, many of us discuss Monero with our personal contacts who are totally outside of the existing cryptocurrency universe.

If you have other ideas how to reach more people and help the project in terms of greater awareness, please speak up, or better yet, go do them.


legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
May 28, 2015, 02:03:56 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Even Nazis.  Wink

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.

Price is definetely going to down.
I wouldn't be surprised even if we reach new lows at the end of the trend and stay at those lows for a while.
I am not interested in buying Monero at this point of time since it is too expensive and it has no interesting risk/reward ratio right now.
I am not sure if it will be interesting at 0.001 but at least it is less rebarbative than the current 0.0018-0.002 level.

The day someone as perpetually bearish as you buys in, do let me know, ill double down on that day.
sr. member
Activity: 367
Merit: 250
May 28, 2015, 01:56:52 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Even Nazis.  Wink

Even criminals and KGB agents.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
May 28, 2015, 01:48:32 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Even Nazis.  Wink

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.

Price is definetely going to down.
I wouldn't be surprised even if we reach new lows at the end of the trend and stay at those lows for a while.
I am not interested in buying Monero at this point of time since it is too expensive and it has no interesting risk/reward ratio right now.
I am not sure if it will be interesting at 0.001 but at least it is less rebarbative than the current 0.0018-0.002 level.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
May 28, 2015, 01:42:58 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Even Nazis.  Wink

Libertarians, communist, and transhumanist, Oh My!

Personally I'm a Deluezean capitalist, pre-AI singularity poet, and lover of fine women--you can add them to the list if you want. But back on topic: the price seems to slide when the buys drop below 300btc and the sell above 200k. I'm amazed how much gets eaten by the market without the day to day going wild.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
May 28, 2015, 01:33:52 PM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley

Even Nazis.  Wink
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
May 28, 2015, 10:22:22 AM
High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.



I'd only try that strategy if I owned the exchange and could see the stops exactly.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
May 28, 2015, 07:35:13 AM
Monero attracts all kinds of people around it. We even had a self-confessed bankster agent joining our nightlife in Berlin! Think about that for a moment Smiley
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
May 28, 2015, 07:26:27 AM
I dont know what is about Monero holders,  they alll seem to exhibit this strange sense of fanatical, zealous self-assuredness of it's undeniable superiority which just comes across a little to jehovas' witnessy to me. It's like watching a late night infomercial or reading one of these ebook self-improvement pitches..in this thread it's always laughing at the fools who dump.. (haha, nervous laughter) personally I dumped and brought back lower successfully many more times than I've been burned trying it so don't personally feel too much like a fool. Also everything is apparently an orchestrated attack against monero to keep it down.. THEY are trying and hold back this torrential waterfall that will be the monero success story.. The powers that be and the haters are pulling out every stop to contain this raging monero beast.. Yawn   Roll Eyes

there is this unrelenting undercurrent being broadcast here that yes, buying and hodling a pithy amount of this bytecoin fork will allow you to buy a private island in Belize in 2-5 years. If you buy you will become soon the new wealthy elite, gentlement.. And yes you may not be able to find a single solitary purpose to holding this "currency" aside from buying a fleet of gulfstreams and a lifetime ski resort pass as there is not yet a single scrap of merchant adoption despite a year since inception and almost half fully mined.. but don't let that stop those like americanpegasus and rpietila who have nest-eggs overflowing with monero into encouraging you to gorge yourself on as much "cheap" xmr as possible. how many times we heard that before?

 with anonymity this currencies chief tenet (at this time quite a weak attraction as pretty much the only place to trade it- poloniex spectacularly  un-anonymous,  it's current sky-high inflation and many large holders concentrating wealth it doesn't seem anywhere near as groundbreaking as it's chief proponents try and insinuate.

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page


WRONG!  I don't ski.
sr. member
Activity: 350
Merit: 250
May 28, 2015, 07:25:02 AM
The same story with many other altcoins. You seem to think this is that nobody is allowed to sell and rebuy or short..  They must just hold forever otherwise they are an enemy employed by evan duffield..

hey wait a minute, I never said nobody should not sell or hodl or buy moneroj, I have been cherishing dumps this entire time, what jehst said above is completely true, no one is interested in pumping Monero when you can accumulate just putting buy walls, I dont care that people think I'm a fanatic or not, its quite amusing that in their eyes we are somehow desperate random nobodies excited about this incredible new crypto (that so far nothing can beat) and are blind about its slim chances of actual success. I hold the reason of my intentions to myself but I can assure you its not getting rich on this.
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
May 28, 2015, 06:50:43 AM
legit_chocolateface = stslimited

Is it true?
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
May 28, 2015, 06:43:50 AM
( words )

I think mainly its for this purpose:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qvaaGhfjrgs

The underdog has to constantly fight.

But I get your disdain over the "if someone posts exuberant 'we're going to the moon', its celebrated. If someone posts 'this is a pile of poop', its considered trolling". But there's a thread for that, apparently: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-the-monero-bear-thread-1067853

Have a field day.

I speculate the reason this thread gets bumped and there are perceived few voices that are doing it is due to the nature of the monero community. Some, like me, can't really contribute to code development - we're just so damn excited about Monero, and we're excited to find others that are excited about it. And so, yes, we like to communicate our excitement either because we've had so much caffeine or we're holding a little bag or we're dreaming of a day when our finances are as private as we want them to be and there are financial systems that are controlled by the people as opposed to some people.

Furthermore, the voluntary nature of the entire Monero project benefits from a feedback loop of support. And for better or worse, the market valuation of a thing could affect an individuals drive to make that thing better. I know - in my work, it sucks to be on a project that no one thinks is worth a damn - your own self motivation can only go so far sometimes - and sometimes in nice to have that little kick-in-the-butt from the external world - and here, that external kick-in-the-butt has a blatant manifestation in a market valuation. For some others (and good on them), this means nothing. True to point, you rarely see fluffypony in here. In fact, he has publicly stated somewhere that you should only buy monero if you plan on using it to make a transaction.

Additionally, the external-kick-in-the-butt comes from confirmation by others interest. Here and there I have witness new people coming into #monero-dev... they didn't find their way to monero dev because the threads on bitcointalk were quiet.

Finally, the voluntary nature of Monero means that we all have other obligations. Sometimes you don't have the time to create something of meaty substance, but you still want to say "hey look, stuffs happening. neat huh? what do you think?"

So, that is my speculation on the phenomenon, and I'm sorry that it annoys you. You have it in your power to ignore all of us and the thread will never appear bumped.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
May 28, 2015, 06:32:30 AM
High supply inflation means that none of us really has any incentive to pump XMR.

I am aware of one notable exception to this general rule:  If you are aware of largish margined short positions, there is very little reason not to take their money.  In case you are unfamiliar with the process of running stops, it is as simple as placing a sell order just over the price at which margined positions are forced closed, and sweeping the market up to that price.  If you have the required data and do the math, it is as close as you can come to a guaranteed profit, and in a low cap market like this, it doesn't take much capital.  The down side to that is: As thin as the market is, there just isn't that much to be gained by it either;  I don't have the position info, but I do observe that the lend rates on XMR are miniscule, which means demand is quite low, which means positions are quite small, which means running stops just isn't going to net you a large win right now, limited as it is to a small fraction of the outstanding margined short position sizes.  What risk there is in the process comes from sellers on the side-lines dashing in to front-run your reaping order.



Great post, bit of an addition to this post. Margin trading was introduced on the 18th of May at 19:00 UTC and price was around 0.0025 at that moment, so we can reasonably conclude that the highest price one got to short was around 0.0025. Taking that into account, at worst all current short positions get a forced liquidation at 0.003 (Poloniex allows 1:2,5 margin, but uses maintenance margin, so a 20% move in the opposite direction will wipe out your short/long (more information can be obtained from -> https://poloniex.com/support/aboutMarginTrading)). Probably a lot of shorts were taken out lower than this, so they will get liquidated earlier. It would be nice if Poloniex introduced some swap data just like bfxdata.com, in that case we could see the amount of shorts and longs currently open.

@legit_chocolateface: The kind of posts you exhibited here in your post make me cringe a bit as well, but these posts are merely coming from a few people (since this is there personal character, there isn't much we can do about it). Most posters tend to stay rational though.  
newbie
Activity: 6
Merit: 0
May 28, 2015, 06:14:20 AM
Agreed on your points re: altcoins exhibiting self-advertising. The community isn't actually all that well populated though..it's largely the same few voices..sometimes making several low value posts  in quick succession that keeps this thread bumped.

My real issue is disingenuity..snake oil salesmen parroting potentialities as de facto prophecies guaranteed to unwind as they state ... cognitive biases running amok here that allows such statements to go unchallenged because it jives with the status quo hivemind here.. the thought process seems to be "we are amongst friends here and we all made the right decision by investing". "We can all see something nobody else can see and we will harvest plentifully as a result." "It is a fact we will become rich The rest stating negative words against  monero are trolls and or haters and or competing coin investors and or government employees keeping our coin down" via some mechanism

I mean look at this shit..

Quote
It's crazy to think about...  It sounds quite unfair, but I can't find any good reason why it won't be true:  we are going to buy as much Monero as possible right now and hold onto it (no margin games), and in ten years we are going to be obscenely wealthy.  
 
Quote
All we can do is try to build and work with the technology, help new users, and vow to be responsible stewards of a great amount of wealth.  
  
I know I get euphoric sometimes, but honestly even if I never said a word it would still happen.

Are you kidding me? He knows none of that, yet he's talking as if he's been to the future and back. That is a worthless post just like mine which was labelled a troll. Mine was labelled a troll because it's negative. His wasn't because is a motivational speech, that is a sales pitch. rallying the troops.   All I want is genuine worthwhile content here without lewd fantasies of surpassing the rothschildes wealth. There have been way too many unrealistic euphoric posts here in the past months that go unchecked. That's not symptomatic of a strong community

It's certainly not trollmode that one of the currencies underpinning selling points (anonymity) is in the here and now fairly fragmented for new entrants due to the limited markets for purchasing XMR. The main access point requires sacrificing proof of identity to a central authority. There are absolutely other avenues one could accumulate however for many less technical people that really does defeat the point.

Unless you work for poloniex or one of the agencies receiving it's collected data on it's clients you can't prove americanpegasus has more or less than 20k
hero member
Activity: 714
Merit: 504
May 28, 2015, 05:40:59 AM
I dont know what is about Monero holders,  they alll seem to exhibit this strange sense of fanatical, zealous self-assuredness of it's undeniable superiority which just comes across a little to jehovas' witnessy to me.


No coin in the cryptospace is removed from a self-advertising mechanic - it's fundamental. The difference with Monero is that the community is well populated, so inevitably is the most discussed. In general, Monero is honest, strong, and intelligently conceived - such components will inevitably secure a clever and stable support base.

Quote

 It's like watching a late night infomercial or reading one of these ebook self-improvement pitches..in this thread it's always laughing at the fools who dump.. (haha, nervous laughter) personally I dumped and brought back lower successfully many more times than I've been burned trying it so don't personally feel too much like a fool. Also everything is apparently an orchestrated attack against monero to keep it down.. THEY are trying and hold back this torrential waterfall that will be the monero success story.. The powers that be and the haters are pulling out every stop to contain this raging monero beast.. Yawn   Roll Eyes


Okay this is you talking in troll-mode, so in the main, I shall ignore it. That said, there is good reason for Monero to always be on the defensive: 14 months of attacks from lesser coins trying to steal its crown and network. And of course, sock puppet newbie accounts that pop up perpetually speaking in troll-mode.

Quote

there is this unrelenting undercurrent being broadcast here that yes, buying and hodling a pithy amount of this bytecoin fork will allow you to buy a private island in Belize in 2-5 years. If you buy you will become soon the new wealthy elite, gentlement.. And yes you may not be able to find a single solitary purpose to holding this "currency" aside from buying a fleet of gulfstreams and a lifetime ski resort pass as there is not yet a single scrap of merchant adoption despite a year since inception and almost half fully mined.. but don't let that stop those like americanpegasus and rpietila who have nest-eggs overflowing with monero into encouraging you to gorge yourself on as much "cheap" xmr as possible. how many times we heard that before?


This is the Monero Speculation thread. In order to stay on topic you generally should display some modicum of an opinion as to what the price will do. There's basically three choices: up, down, stay the same. Here's my speculation: I think it will go up.

Quote

 with anonymity this currencies chief tenet (at this time quite a weak attraction as pretty much the only place to trade it- poloniex spectacularly  un-anonymous,  it's current sky-high inflation and many large holders concentrating wealth it doesn't seem anywhere near as groundbreaking as it's chief proponents try and insinuate.


Mainly troll-mode, so again, mainly ignoring. The only thing important to rebuke here is the issue of large holders concentrating wealth. At no point was there ever a premine, or instamine, or any other developer-orientated private/secret/nefarious attempt at wealth accumulation bias. Everyone has had, and indeed does have just as much opportunity to accumulate Monero as anyone else. AmericanPegasus - a relative newcomer who you earlier cited - owns less than 20k which was purchased on Poloniex a few weeks ago. You can't have it both ways: either there is a back-room conspiracy or there is the cacophony and noise of dealings laid out under the spotlight of the public arena. Which would you prefer?

Quote

I'm also sick of seeing this monero thread bumped to the front page of the altcoin discussion page by the same few posters. At last it's slightly more bearable than the 15 different monero threads but still almost every other altcoin sticks to the less trafficed altcoin announcement page


Democracy and Darwinism.
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