Author

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1956. (Read 3313084 times)

legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 12, 2015, 06:50:16 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.


Why 0.9%?


Edit: I guess what I'm asking is, what is the actual formula for the tail emission, the resultant inflation year over year and why was that amount chosen?

The formula is "0.3"

The amount was chosen based on being a round number within and close to the <1% inflation maintenance reward specified in the ANN OP.



I found this on github

Code:
+#define FINAL_SUBSIDY_PER_MINUTE ((uint64_t)300000000000) // 3 * pow(10, 11)

Does this mean a constant block reward = 0.3XMR ?

Yes. that's what it means, unless the block time target is changed higher or lower than one minute, in which case all rewards including that one will be scaled accordingly. That is the base reward, but there will still be penalties for having blocks that are >median so the actual reward may be lower (in fact this is one of several reasons it is necessary to have a maintenance reward).



So the tail emission is now defined in the code and protected by the proof of work. I was concerned about this but alas no more concern. Excellent!!
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 12, 2015, 06:45:23 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.


Why 0.9%?


Edit: I guess what I'm asking is, what is the actual formula for the tail emission, the resultant inflation year over year and why was that amount chosen?

The formula is "0.3"

The amount was chosen based on being a round number within and close to the <1% inflation maintenance reward specified in the ANN OP.



I found this on github

Code:
+#define FINAL_SUBSIDY_PER_MINUTE ((uint64_t)300000000000) // 3 * pow(10, 11)

Does this mean a constant block reward = 0.3XMR ?

Yes. that's what it means, unless the block time target is changed higher or lower than one minute, in which case all rewards including that one will be scaled accordingly. That is the base reward, but there will still be penalties for having blocks that are >median so the actual reward may be lower (in fact this is one of several reasons it is necessary to have a maintenance reward).

xa4
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
April 12, 2015, 06:38:12 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.


Why 0.9%?


Edit: I guess what I'm asking is, what is the actual formula for the tail emission, the resultant inflation year over year and why was that amount chosen?

The formula is "0.3"

The amount was chosen based on being a round number within and close to the <1% inflation maintenance reward specified in the ANN OP.



I found this on github

Code:
+#define FINAL_SUBSIDY_PER_MINUTE ((uint64_t)300000000000) // 3 * pow(10, 11)

Does this mean a constant block reward = 0.3XMR ?
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 12, 2015, 06:34:35 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.


Why 0.9%?


Edit: I guess what I'm asking is, what is the actual formula for the tail emission, the resultant inflation year over year and why was that amount chosen?

The formula is "0.3"

The amount was chosen based on being a round number within and close to the <1% inflation maintenance reward specified in the ANN OP.

hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
April 12, 2015, 06:13:51 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.


Why 0.9%?


Edit: I guess what I'm asking is, what is the actual formula for the tail emission, the resultant inflation year over year and why was that amount chosen?

Check out the economy thread from Monero's early days to see discussion regarding tail emission: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=597878.80
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
April 12, 2015, 04:57:18 PM
When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

It is hard to know the exact date/block because it depends on penalties. Each block's reward is a function of the actual number of coins created so far.

It will kick in whenever the reward according to the formula would be less than 0.3 XMR (approx 0.9% annually), which is expected some time around year 8.
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1002
Strange, yet attractive.
April 12, 2015, 03:56:46 PM
XMR is very promising, but I don't know if it can reach this price anytime soon. I really care only about the XMR/BTC price to be honest. I'd never sell any of those for fiat (except if it was an emergency and needed the money). Both are parts of the same equation if you want my opinion. I'd also say that I feel that their chance of success is also linked between them.

If BTC reaches a nice price within the next bubble, XMR will probably follow since it shares very similar (IMHO XMR some even better) characteristics. Again, it's a long shot; but totally feasible within the next 4-year period.
hero member
Activity: 672
Merit: 500
April 12, 2015, 03:01:07 PM
2016 is the Year of Monero. 1 XMR will be around 900 Dollars ;-) you now?

Who knows, maybe yes
full member
Activity: 192
Merit: 101
April 12, 2015, 02:51:18 PM
2016 is the Year of Monero. 1 XMR will be around 900 Dollars ;-) you now?
legendary
Activity: 1762
Merit: 1011
April 12, 2015, 02:03:06 PM
Can someone post a link to a graf of the total issuance of Monero over time? Would appreciate it to look into the inflation some more.

There's also the bottom-most chart here: http://chainradar.com/xmr/chart
 
Edit: I see you meant out to the future.
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
April 12, 2015, 12:25:42 PM
Thanks!
xa4
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
April 12, 2015, 11:26:21 AM
^^^Made this

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuRZUFmMDVZMlB2Q2s

Some experiments with D3.js ... it's a zoomable graph of XMR emission. Maybe someone can use it.

EDIT : Y-axis are percentages of total supply according to the emission formula


Neat! Does this incorporate the tail emissions? it stopped at 2040, so .....

It's simple javascript calculating the supply every minute according to :

* Actual number of atomic units is M = 264 - 1. A minimum subsidy may be implemented in the future with <1% annual inflation to preserve mining incentives.
* Uses a recurrence relation. Block reward = (M - A) * 2-20 * 10-12, where A = current circulation. Roughly 86% mined in 4 years (see graph)

You can copy paste the code and run it locally in your browser. The example calculates 525600*26 blocks (see javascript code) ... you can change that to any number you want.

When - what date or what blockheight - would the tail emission kick in ?  

EDIT : 525600*26 = 26 years each year 525600 blocks one block every min.
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
April 12, 2015, 11:09:44 AM
^^^Made this

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuRZUFmMDVZMlB2Q2s

Some experiments with D3.js ... it's a zoomable graph of XMR emission. Maybe someone can use it.

EDIT : Y-axis are percentages of total supply according to the emission formula


Neat! Does this incorporate the tail emissions? it stopped at 2040, so .....
xa4
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
April 12, 2015, 10:49:32 AM
Quote
If you look at the top left corner, you will see that it's not actually tradingview, but rather cryptrader.com. Uses the same engine as TV, much like coingy.

Oooh, interesting, thx.
legendary
Activity: 1442
Merit: 1018
April 12, 2015, 10:43:51 AM


I do not see a 0.0028 to 0.0045 trading range, rather I see an upwards trendline channel with very strong support at 0.0028 with two scenarios. 1) Continuation of the trendline channel with a test of 0.0050 and a possible test of 0.0058. A break of the upward trendline would be very bullish and could lead to a test of 0.010. 2) My second choice is a breakdown of the bottom trendline and possibly a break below 0.0028. 

Hello ArticMine,

How do you view Poloniex BTC/XMR in tradingview ?

If you look at the top left corner, you will see that it's not actually tradingview, but rather cryptrader.com. Uses the same engine as TV, much like coingy.
sr. member
Activity: 476
Merit: 250
Ⓘ♡฿
April 12, 2015, 10:37:59 AM


Hello ArticMine,

How do you view Poloniex BTC/XMR in tradingview ?

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/markets/poloniex/xmrbtc
xa4
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
April 12, 2015, 08:53:08 AM


I do not see a 0.0028 to 0.0045 trading range, rather I see an upwards trendline channel with very strong support at 0.0028 with two scenarios. 1) Continuation of the trendline channel with a test of 0.0050 and a possible test of 0.0058. A break of the upward trendline would be very bullish and could lead to a test of 0.010. 2) My second choice is a breakdown of the bottom trendline and possibly a break below 0.0028.  

Hello ArticMine,

How do you view Poloniex BTC/XMR in tradingview ?
xa4
member
Activity: 71
Merit: 10
April 12, 2015, 08:39:09 AM
^^^Made this

www.googledrive.com/host/0B8ddMzM9RWuRZUFmMDVZMlB2Q2s

Some experiments with D3.js ... it's a zoomable graph of XMR emission. Maybe someone can use it.

EDIT : Y-axis are percentages of total supply according to the emission formula



legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
April 12, 2015, 07:30:23 AM
hero member
Activity: 665
Merit: 500
April 12, 2015, 07:14:53 AM
holy shit i was suprised today how fast block reward is going down. soon under 10 xmr per block  Shocked
found a block on my desktop. my first impression was this has to be a trx, since its too small to be a block reward.
everything we need for the perfect storm Cool

Can someone post a link to a graf of the total issuance of Monero over time? Would appreciate it to look into the inflation some more.
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