The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.
Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that
Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1959. (Read 3314330 times)
Dont forget the 1year aniversary next week, i am expecting some moves related to that
Due to soem bot experiments, I have been reading the tea leaves quite intensively the last days.
Today, is the breakout day. Poloniex 2W/4H shows the channel with a flat lower bound at 281k, above which there is now considerable number of bids, >1 lazy day volume.
Everyone in the hot money section is waiting for the price to fall through 281k, because they have sold and want to get back. The new money is waiting for the liquidity; they cannot enter now due to the almost complete absence of ask side.
My understanding is (explained already well before the rise to the current range) that the speculative position in XMR is at about 0 when we are at the lower bound of the trading channel (290) and at maximum at the higher bound (450). As long as the trading in the channel continues, these traders on average lose money in the churn. The new entrants also "lose money" because they buy higher than the LTVWA, due to their liquidity needs and inexperience in trading (this becomes their entry point, so they don't feel like losing money, yet someone can gain on their expense - win/win!
). The winners are seasoned oldies who are not prone to panic, rather just shove in more money every time it drops, "because in the end it conquers the world" and the nimble daytraders.
Because of the zero speculative position, there is no one but the miners to push the price down and they should also be quite empty. Check the chart - if I or you or anyone had hot money in Monero, for sure that would have been liquidated many days ago!
The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.
Today, is the breakout day. Poloniex 2W/4H shows the channel with a flat lower bound at 281k, above which there is now considerable number of bids, >1 lazy day volume.
Everyone in the hot money section is waiting for the price to fall through 281k, because they have sold and want to get back. The new money is waiting for the liquidity; they cannot enter now due to the almost complete absence of ask side.
My understanding is (explained already well before the rise to the current range) that the speculative position in XMR is at about 0 when we are at the lower bound of the trading channel (290) and at maximum at the higher bound (450). As long as the trading in the channel continues, these traders on average lose money in the churn. The new entrants also "lose money" because they buy higher than the LTVWA, due to their liquidity needs and inexperience in trading (this becomes their entry point, so they don't feel like losing money, yet someone can gain on their expense - win/win!
). The winners are seasoned oldies who are not prone to panic, rather just shove in more money every time it drops, "because in the end it conquers the world" and the nimble daytraders.Because of the zero speculative position, there is no one but the miners to push the price down and they should also be quite empty. Check the chart - if I or you or anyone had hot money in Monero, for sure that would have been liquidated many days ago!
The direction is UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
I've always thought of most of cryptoland in terms of the show put on by the Duke and King in Huckleberry Finn--people gets scammed for a sloppily put together show. But instead of riding the con-men out on a rail, they invite their friends and family to see it, so they don't feel alone in the duping. Though, thankfully, they eventually get exposed--ahem Evan, Josh....
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.
Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
The merging and acquisition of coins and cryptoassets is going to be commonplace. Already, the current Bitshares version is the merger of several different dev groups and projects. Now they are all under one banner.
For my own speculative purposes, I've filled pages of notebooks on what sorts of mergers, acquisitions, and reorganizations are likely to occur as the crypto ecosystem matures.
I never actually said my interpretation /
I think he meant the altcoin universe is full of various bastard creations devouring one another. It's sort of an apocylypse combined with survival of the fittest all wrapped up in arcane expressions, fantasy and mystery.
I've always found Bosch strangely compelling.
I think he meant the altcoin universe is full of various bastard creations devouring one another. It's sort of an apocylypse combined with survival of the fittest all wrapped up in arcane expressions, fantasy and mystery.
I've always found Bosch strangely compelling.
You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.
Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
More a fan of Henry Darger, personally. Something less crazy than Altcoins.
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
let me be bold : i see the state feasting on its people : we are the food.
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.
Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.
Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.
There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
deadlock indeed. i expect some action very soon, volume collapse is strong this time, everyone is waiting for others to make a move first.
dont panic!
if we go down yeah so be it, me personally thinks chances we go up are good.
lets see who pulls the trigger first
edit: buy support is massive!
dont panic!
if we go down yeah so be it, me personally thinks chances we go up are good.
lets see who pulls the trigger first
edit: buy support is massive!
Quote
Instead, you can program the bot to buy a certain amount of XMR per day. Over the course of weeks or months, you will (theoretically) obtain your Monero at a lower cost than if you were to place large buy orders. This is known as the (cost average effect)[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging].
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
Cool, thanks, I'll try it!
I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)
we will think about it again when we have a bigger amount of users. not sure whats best atm.
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
Cool, thanks, I'll try it!
I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)
Quote
Instead, you can program the bot to buy a certain amount of XMR per day. Over the course of weeks or months, you will (theoretically) obtain your Monero at a lower cost than if you were to place large buy orders. This is known as the (cost average effect)[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging].
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
[...]
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
Cool, thanks, I'll try it!
I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)
...Currently the markets look pretty "boring"...
Bah, no surprise this was foretasted and is panning out exactly as predicted. If people actually read this thread they would see there really is no deviation if you filter out the self serving posts.
AFA Crypto goes I would call this a pretty even Keel in the right direction. Prepare for next month or week, hmm which is it?
Nobody seems to want to sell or buy Monero.
Perhaps a little more dumping going than buying, hence the price declines. Probably the miners dump, in such low volume days the miners have more impact on the price fluctuation than in days of larger volumes.
What do you think the drop in btc will cause?
My speculation:
People want to short Monero and btc and once btc hits the bottom, people convert their cash into btc which is further converted into XMR.
Currently the markets look pretty "boring"...
Perhaps a little more dumping going than buying, hence the price declines. Probably the miners dump, in such low volume days the miners have more impact on the price fluctuation than in days of larger volumes.
What do you think the drop in btc will cause?
My speculation:
People want to short Monero and btc and once btc hits the bottom, people convert their cash into btc which is further converted into XMR.
Currently the markets look pretty "boring"...
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!
(yes, its still buying with bitcoin)
With BuyMonero.net, you get your own bot that will place a daily buy order for an amount of XMR that you specify. If no one sells to the bot in 24 hours, your bot will make a second buy order that is sure to be filled. There is a small fee for the service - currently 1% (so 1 XMR lets you buy 100 XMR on the exchange).
We made BuyMonero.net for a couple of reasons. My primary motivation was so that I wouldn't have to always login to poloniex and follow the markets to try and get a good deal on monero. The second motivation was to allow accumulators a way to buy a lot of Monero with minimal effort.
If you're interested, please checkout the website. The following forum threads are also available for general discussion and tech support.
https://forum.getmonero.org/2/economics-and-trading/258/buymonero-net-btc-cost-averaging
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-buymoneronet-btc-cost-averaging-1017131
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
(yes, its still buying with bitcoin)
With BuyMonero.net, you get your own bot that will place a daily buy order for an amount of XMR that you specify. If no one sells to the bot in 24 hours, your bot will make a second buy order that is sure to be filled. There is a small fee for the service - currently 1% (so 1 XMR lets you buy 100 XMR on the exchange).
We made BuyMonero.net for a couple of reasons. My primary motivation was so that I wouldn't have to always login to poloniex and follow the markets to try and get a good deal on monero. The second motivation was to allow accumulators a way to buy a lot of Monero with minimal effort.
If you're interested, please checkout the website. The following forum threads are also available for general discussion and tech support.
https://forum.getmonero.org/2/economics-and-trading/258/buymonero-net-btc-cost-averaging
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-buymoneronet-btc-cost-averaging-1017131
As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?
This is a great idea. One thing I must mention for cost averaging to work correctly one needs to specify a fixed amount of XBT per day not a fixed amount of XMR per day, if one is purchasing XMR with XBT.
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