Due to soem bot experiments, I have been reading the tea leaves quite intensively the last days.
Today, is the breakout day. Poloniex 2W/4H shows the channel with a flat lower bound at 281k, above which there is now considerable number of bids, >1 lazy day volume.
Everyone in the hot money section is waiting for the price to fall through 281k, because they have sold and want to get back. The new money is waiting for the liquidity; they cannot enter now due to the almost complete absence of ask side.
My understanding is (explained already well before the rise to the current range) that the speculative position in XMR is at about 0 when we are at the lower bound of the trading channel (290) and at maximum at the higher bound (450). As long as the trading in the channel continues, these traders on average lose money in the churn. The new entrants also "lose money" because they buy higher than the LTVWA, due to their liquidity needs and inexperience in trading (this becomes their entry point, so they don't feel like losing money, yet someone can gain on their expense - win/win!
). The winners are seasoned oldies who are not prone to panic, rather just shove in more money every time it drops, "because in the end it conquers the world" and the nimble daytraders.
Because of the zero speculative position, there is no one but the miners to push the price down and they should also be quite empty. Check the chart - if I or you or anyone had hot money in Monero, for sure that would have been liquidated many days ago!
The direction is
UP. In much higher probability than 52/48, which already qualifies for huge raises in Poker.
