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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1960. (Read 3313084 times)

legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
April 10, 2015, 01:14:46 AM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261

I've always thought of most of cryptoland in terms of the show put on by the Duke and King in Huckleberry Finn--people gets scammed for a sloppily put together show. But instead of riding the con-men out on a rail, they invite their friends and family to see it, so they don't feel alone in the duping. Though, thankfully, they eventually get exposed--ahem Evan, Josh....
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
April 10, 2015, 12:10:56 AM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261

You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.

The merging and acquisition of coins and cryptoassets is going to be commonplace. Already, the current Bitshares version is the merger of several different dev groups and projects. Now they are all under one banner.

For my own speculative purposes, I've filled pages of notebooks on what sorts of mergers, acquisitions, and reorganizations are likely to occur as the crypto ecosystem matures.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
April 09, 2015, 10:03:27 PM
I never actually said my interpretation / Wink

I think he meant the altcoin universe is full of various bastard creations devouring one another.  It's sort of an apocylypse combined with survival of the fittest all wrapped up in arcane expressions, fantasy and mystery.

I've always found Bosch strangely compelling. Wink
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1085
Money often costs too much.
April 09, 2015, 07:54:53 PM
You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.

More a fan of Henry Darger, personally. Something less crazy than Altcoins.
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
April 09, 2015, 07:52:07 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261

let me be bold : i see the state feasting on its people : we are the food.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 09, 2015, 05:30:01 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261

You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
legendary
Activity: 3766
Merit: 5146
Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!
April 09, 2015, 05:05:35 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261

You know Bosch painted horrific landscapes filled with sin and judgement where people and creatures indulged in gambling, carnal acts and eventually were devoured by odd creatures or each other.

Sounds just like this forum... this subforum in particular.
legendary
Activity: 1834
Merit: 1019
April 09, 2015, 04:50:32 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY

Could you decipher this one?
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.11003261
pa
hero member
Activity: 528
Merit: 501
April 09, 2015, 04:29:57 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.


What I love about aminorex is that he's usually right and I learn one or two new things every time I try to decipher what he's written: http://www.edwardtufte.com/bboard/q-and-a-fetch-msg?msg_id=0003uY
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
April 09, 2015, 04:13:24 PM
That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.

The whole point of the method, as far as I am concerned, is that it optimizes the average case under the assumption that you don't have an edge on bull/bear calls.

There are still pathologically pessimal cases, of course, but not under typical assumptions about the nature of a financial time-series.
sr. member
Activity: 453
Merit: 500
hello world
April 09, 2015, 01:10:27 PM
deadlock indeed. i expect some action very soon, volume collapse is strong this time, everyone is waiting for others to make a move first.

dont panic! Grin

if we go down yeah so be it, me personally thinks chances we go up are good.
lets see who pulls the trigger first Cool

edit: buy support is massive!
legendary
Activity: 2380
Merit: 1085
Money often costs too much.
April 09, 2015, 11:01:34 AM
Quote
Instead, you can program the bot to buy a certain amount of XMR per day. Over the course of weeks or months, you will (theoretically) obtain your Monero at a lower cost than if you were to place large buy orders. This is known as the (cost average effect)[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging].

That only works out on a bearish market. If the markets would be bullish, buying one chunk makes more sense. Just don't obtain that amount as the last one.
sr. member
Activity: 252
Merit: 251
April 09, 2015, 09:31:19 AM
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

[...]

As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

Cool, thanks, I'll try it!

I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)

we will think about it again when we have a bigger amount of users. not sure whats best atm.
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 09, 2015, 07:31:18 AM
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

[...]

As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

Cool, thanks, I'll try it!

I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)

Quote
Instead, you can program the bot to buy a certain amount of XMR per day. Over the course of weeks or months, you will (theoretically) obtain your Monero at a lower cost than if you were to place large buy orders. This is known as the (cost average effect)[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dollar_cost_averaging].
newbie
Activity: 50
Merit: 0
April 09, 2015, 07:02:58 AM
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

[...]

As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

Cool, thanks, I'll try it!

I understand that you don't want to publish too specific details on the bot's strategy, but it would be nice if you could publish some numbers on how much it is used (e.g. how many XMR the bot bought per week or so summed over all users)
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
April 09, 2015, 06:26:20 AM
...Currently the markets look pretty "boring"...

Bah, no surprise this was foretasted and is panning out exactly as predicted. If people actually read this thread they would see there really is no deviation if you filter out the self serving posts.

AFA Crypto goes I would call this a pretty even Keel in the right direction. Prepare for next month or week, hmm which is it? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
April 09, 2015, 05:27:51 AM
Nobody seems to want to sell or buy Monero.
Perhaps a little more dumping going than buying, hence the price declines. Probably the miners dump, in such low volume days the miners have more impact on the price fluctuation than in days of larger volumes.
What do you think the drop in btc will cause?

My speculation:
People want to short Monero and btc and once btc hits the bottom, people convert their cash into btc which is further converted into XMR.

Currently the markets look pretty "boring"...
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
April 09, 2015, 01:38:04 AM
Heya monero speculators! Onemorexmr, fluffypony and I put together something that will make it easier for everyone to buy monero!!

(yes, its still buying with bitcoin)


With BuyMonero.net, you get your own bot that will place a daily buy order for an amount of XMR that you specify. If no one sells to the bot in 24 hours, your bot will make a second buy order that is sure to be filled. There is a small fee for the service - currently 1% (so 1 XMR lets you buy 100 XMR on the exchange).

We made BuyMonero.net for a couple of reasons. My primary motivation was so that I wouldn't have to always login to poloniex and follow the markets to try and get a good deal on monero. The second motivation was to allow accumulators a way to buy a lot of Monero with minimal effort.

If you're interested, please checkout the website. The following forum threads are also available for general discussion and tech support.

https://forum.getmonero.org/2/economics-and-trading/258/buymonero-net-btc-cost-averaging

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/xmr-buymoneronet-btc-cost-averaging-1017131


As this is the speculation thread, I assume you all will want some hard numbers - unfortunately, we decided that to avoid exploitation of the bot that we would not publish them. And to keep this on topic - how do you think a service like this will affect the market?

This is a great idea. One thing I must mention for cost averaging to work correctly one needs to specify a fixed amount of XBT per day not a fixed amount of XMR per day, if one is purchasing XMR with XBT.
legendary
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1217
April 09, 2015, 01:35:43 AM
hero member
Activity: 794
Merit: 1000
Monero (XMR) - secure, private, untraceable
April 09, 2015, 01:27:19 AM
^I'll send you a PM.
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