Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 1957. (Read 3313084 times)

holy shit i was suprised today how fast block reward is going down. soon under 10 xmr per block  
found a block on my desktop. my first impression was this has to be a trx, since its too small to be a block reward.
everything we need for the perfect storm

It is true that the upper bound-zone is wider, and therefore more elusive as well. Regardless it is there, so that I'd much rather advise to buy now and wait what it takes, than wait for a breakout from the upper bound, of which we can really be sure only when the price hits 0.015, more than 4x the current price. I don't think waiting for that before buying is justifiable. Every other breakout in between could be false, and you just buy at a slightly unoptimal price, which in the end does not matter.

Well if more people had this mindset, the rise would be gradual and there would be no trading range, just a slow rise (what you said, originally ), chewing through 0.0045, 0.005 and whatever resistancies there is, in the following months. The presence of speculators does not make it possible, they will always come late in the rally and be early to exit.

Finally, the figure of speech "bears to make a stand" rubs me the wrong way. If you are truly negative towards something (like I am to dash), you ignore it and never buy it, and consequently have neither voice nor votes in determining how its market goes. The whole picture is so convoluted because "bears"/"bearish" are people who hope that the price would go down (so that they can buy), while "bulls"/"bullish" are the ones who are already maxxed out and hope that the price would go up for them to be richer and/or to sell and "profit". Understanding of this is so vague that using these terms and seeing them used does not convey reliable information, (except in cases where the context totally defines it, and the animalspeak could have been omitted as redundant).

Those 100k, 50k, 20k dumps were not to cover costs.  Speculator dumps were at least 1.2mm.  Anyhow, your comment suggests that miners are hoarding about 1/3 of their gross yields. Perhaps 1/4, accounting for other sales venues.

That is interesting to me because it means that it costs roughly 35btc/diem to buy the incremental supply - 1% of the BTC block rewards. That in turn means XMR's long-term cap is converging towards 1% of BTC cap, or 5x the current price (0.017) at current emission, 4x (0.014) at eventual supply levels.

All numbers are ballpark, and the whole tissue is predicated on stability of BTC value, which is counter-factual, but it does illustrate that XMR has additional upside potential factors, relative to BTC.

I continue to accumulate BTC at what I consider a likely support level, to spend on XMR later, in anticipation of the possibility of a BTC rise in advance of any subsequent XMR slingshot run, but I do so with some trepidation, as a failure of this support level could conceivably take BTC down to 126 USD, while XMR is likely to remain relatively USD-stable during such an event, or even gain on a refugee trade.

If XMR slips below 003, I will stop accumulating BTC.

Risto, historically that was the case but now we have two other factors to consider:

1. Inflation has dropped
2. Monero has matured and confidence in it is higher

Have you taken those two things into consideration?

0.0028 I see as a very strong support, then resistance and now support again, so I don't have an issue with the lower part of the trading range. I just do not see anything that special at 0.0045 in the charts. My take is that 0.0050 - 0.0058 range is a more likely place for the bears to make a stand. Furthermore the drop in XBT/USD, XBT/EUR etc since last summer would also tend to bias the trading range upwards.

The trading range is derived from the price:volume scatter chart, which indicates that half of XMR volume ever traded was traded in that range.

i thougth i might be the only one , option 1.) from ArticMine is clearly what i expect, given the db might come soon and also we have some new interest of people too.
retest of 280k seems unlikely short term, another attack on 430k looks very possible, but i dont think we might clear it just in one go.

just my opinion, sentiment on polo feels very bullish too.

I do not see a 0.0028 to 0.0045 trading range, rather I see an upwards trendline channel with very strong support at 0.0028 with two scenarios. 1) Continuation of the trendline channel with a test of 0.0050 and a possible test of 0.0058. A break of the upward trendline would be very bullish and could lead to a test of 0.010. 2) My second choice is a breakdown of the bottom trendline and possibly a break below 0.0028.  

The price and volume have been sluggish the day after the "hammer candle breakout". I tend to interpret it such that the breakout was short covering and the new wave of the new money is yet to come. Because I am not the only contributor of new buyers (and frankly I don't have time for that right now because CK release), it is not possible to know when it happens.

Overall, this fits in the "trading range" big picture: it is possible that we spend weeks, even months without breaking either 280 or 450. Because this would be a most suitable outcome for myself, I have the gall to believe that there is a reasonably large market segment thinking the same, thus enabling portfolio reallocation for those wishing to do so at a mutually agreeable price. If new buyers emerge from my contacts, I won't be announcing it, rather hoping that the price stickiness is such large that they can buy hefty amounts in the range, before the breakout from 450 happens.

It's just a reflection of his/her personality

I have noone in ignore list. However i seriously just dont read his posts...It doesnt worth it. He just aims for panicking total noobs anyway...

It is an interesting piece of statistics nevertheless. It tells that bid side has been so robust that instead of setting up ask walls, the dumpers have chosen to make a market order. And, perhaps resultantly, the ask side has been so thin that few have chosen to market buy.

Yep, it's actually "Total XMR bought/sold at market price", to be precise.

My guess is which side of the trade was on the book.

It's been mentioned to them before, to no avail.

Ah, ok. Yeah, clarification on what is actually meant would help. At fist I read it and went "someone stole a lot of XMR"

The wording is a bit misleading. It should say 'XMR transacted after a buy (resp. sell) order' or something like that.
Obviously the number of XMR "bought" and "sold" are exactly the same: everything sold by somebody is bought by somebody else.

Maybe, but consider that it's still in very early stage, many things are not yet done, plus many major exchanges have not yet implemented it into their databases. Please keep this in mind and then decide if this price is an indicator to something bigger or smaller...

It was at 0.001, not anymore. I hope you do realize that XMR is being mined and miners sell coins to cover their costs? 

Its been down for about week - shame as I hoped it would take off