Are people forgetting the single large volume buys that took us to 400+? Seems weird how people are scared the price went down again.
Monero can realistically replace btc in 3 years (the most optimistic scenario). No
I am glad that you had such a fundamental arguments backing your point.
Monero is more than 3 years behind in terms of development.
Monero is probably more than 3 years behind in terms of network effects.
Monero is probably more than 3 years behind in terms of being known to the public.
Monero is more than 3 years behind in terms of amount of news sources covering it.
Monero won't replace bitcoin. Not in a long time. And if bitcoin gets replaced by a fully anon coin, chances are it won't be monero. I think monero really should carve out its own niche. There's no need to compete against bitcoin.
Network effect is easy to achieve. Just a bullish overall trend will first attract VC money (this increases the marketcap which will help increasing even more network effect which increases the marketcap which increases even more the network effect which increases....
Development will follow pretty fast if the network effect is enough. Investors will invest in infrastructure and the development will be made in many ways.
That's how it was the case with btc. And if XMR gets bullish trend, there are for sure investors who want to invest in the bullish investment vehicle.
Nothing is 100 % sure, but this is pretty sure.
And I did not say it is a realistic scenario for Monero to reach BTC in marketcap in 3 years but it certainly is possible. Bitcoin started pretty much from nowhere and in 3 years it reached pretty decent market capitalisation - in 2011 the highest price was 32 usd and there was hardly anyone investing into Bitcoin.
Monero has the later mover advantage over bitcoin. Bitcoin have had to put a lot of resources on pioneering crypto currency, Monero on the other hand gets a set table.
3 years is on one hand a long time, on the other hand it is pretty darn short time. It's pretty hard to predict at this point how Monero adoption will go forward. Pretty much it needs some positive comments publically from people to whom the sheep listen to.
More realistic scenario for overtaking btc in marketcapwise is definetely 3+ years, but 3 years definetely is a possibility.
I am not jumping off the cliff if this will not happen.
I think it is important to keep on discussing this thing and rather aim at higher than lower.