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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2059. (Read 3313076 times)

full member
Activity: 231
Merit: 100
February 25, 2015, 05:19:44 AM
The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.


Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.

Also the total mined supply is not constant. 280k / total mined then is not comparable to now.

And, it basicly is all relative. Summer '14 is not comparable to late winter '15. Look at BTC-price, look at all the alt pricing/volume. Be careful when drawing conclusions to quickly about specific coins/situations. It all moves within an ecosphere, within an ecosphere, within a ecosphere.  Ecosphereception

That the emission is higher now is a piece of the puzzle, certainly. Let's say in the middle of summer '14 and rounding up a bit, the total emission was 2.4m with 280k on the books. That's roughly 11.6%.

Today the emission is 6.4m with what? 450k on the books. That's roughly 7%.

Oh and a few days ago there were far less asks (and bids mind you).

Also, the books change quite dramatically. And who might be interested in having lot's of asks on the books?
sr. member
Activity: 283
Merit: 250
February 25, 2015, 05:02:51 AM
The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.


Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.

Also the total mined supply is not constant. 280k / total mined then is not comparable to now.

And, it basicly is all relative. Summer '14 is not comparable to late winter '15. Look at BTC-price, look at all the alt pricing/volume. Be careful when drawing conclusions to quickly about specific coins/situations. It all moves within an ecosphere, within an ecosphere, within a ecosphere.  Ecosphereception
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 25, 2015, 04:28:42 AM
The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.


Those 280k coins in asks were worth over a million dollars back then. Liquidity was much better.

I have no idea how the order books would change during an XMR bull-run. Undoubtedly, many coins would come out of cold storage to increase the supply and dampen the rise.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2015, 04:04:31 AM
The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, inaccessible threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here.

Depends on what do you mean by serious amounts of buying pressure.
I don't remember seeing ever that many coins for sale on Poloniex. In last summer the high points of coins for sale were 280 k coins, now it is constantly over 400 k coins (increase of 1/3).
There are plenty of coins for sale, only people who are willing to buy at any price is lacking.
Even higher emission can be absorbed if there are enough people entering to the markets who want to buy coins at any price.
legendary
Activity: 2968
Merit: 1198
February 25, 2015, 04:02:52 AM
TrueCryptonaire, I allowed the UNO comments on both earlier occasions because it was tied to the question of supply and emission. But I'm not going to allow spamming of UNO mentions into unrelated posts. Please stop.
legendary
Activity: 1092
Merit: 1000
February 25, 2015, 04:00:50 AM
I think Ristos intention was to give everyone a chance to increase their holdings before his clients enter the market. In the long run a healthy distribution and a healthy community is more worth than watching half of the community cry because they jumped of the train at the first train station.

Maybe I am wrong, and the main pump is already behind us. But maybe i am not.

If this is not a trap, the main pump is over for now. It did not even reach the highs of December's pump.
If I am wrong, who knows how high it get.
However I doubt Risto is going to increase his holdings. As far as I know he got all the coins he personally want already in summer 2014 (I remember he said this in Poloniex box for us, the trolls) around the time Unobtanium started its long and currently lasting bull market.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 25, 2015, 03:59:04 AM
The browser-based Crypto Kingdom MMORPG is launching very soon. It will be, to my knowledge, the first game in the world that uses a cryptocurrency-based ingame currency (i.e. moneritos). This will likely make the front page of /r/bitcoin (despite /r/bitcoin's anti-altcoin bias) and draw a good amount of attention to XMR. This will happen whether Risto buys XMR or not. Consider that XMR is unable to absorb any serious amount of sustained buying pressure. Also consider that only a small number of English-speaking readers of 3-4 incredibly long, cluttered threads on bitcointalk.org have any idea that this is about to happen, even though I'm writing it plainly here. Finally, consider that technical analysis indicates that XMR is breaking out of a very long downtrend against bitcoin.
donator
Activity: 1722
Merit: 1036
February 25, 2015, 03:38:06 AM
So, let this be the official announcement that the price of monero will now start rising.

We would hope the rise to be gradual, but it is very difficult to cap once it starts. Not many want to sell their precious stashes below cost. In fiat, we are still at 10-15% the cost of most holders.

Everyone who reads this is asked to keep calm and buy at most a very small amount per day, but instead be very vigilant in selling at the best opportunity. Large holders are entering in, we need them, and they need the coins! Smiley 

Trolls want to know what I think exactly concerning the timing of the rise. That is however reserved for IRC only.

Very good stuff from the core team. +1  Smiley

So, let this be the official announcement that the price of monero will now start rising.
I understand "official" here as a figure of speech because:
  • Monero Core Team did not decide on making this official
  • No MEW vote had been proposed on this matter
  • I do not see any other Monero body that could emit such a statement

I'm sure trollers will delight to reuse this announcement. The core team and the community as a whole pride itself in not succumbing to the price drama - I'd like it to continue that way.

Okay, first:
- I had no explicit knowledge of the massive release you were about to make the hours following my statement.
Second:
- The MEW (where both you and I are officials), is not working on the paradigm of voting. We have had very few votes or control of any kind, yet have been able to accomplish a lot on the paradigm of empowerment. I don't even know how much, and none of it has required my approval to get it going. I do take pride of developing the structure that allows things to happen without my approval, because the structure was my design. In CK we are struggling with this issue still..

If I have the resources to make XMR price go up, and the intention to (commit actions that will lead to) do so, I can officially make any announcement I feel right. Until now I haven't even taken advantage of low price myself, due to a self-imposed 24 hour delay from the announcement to action.

The trolls are accusing me of manipulating the price, and they are absolutely correct. I am one of the approximately 1 million people on the planet who have enough funds to (currently) do it (and unless others of the same caliber actively step in). There is no denying this fact. The least I can do before starting to buy en masse due to these wonderful new developments, and before allocating my carte blanche wealth management clients' funds to it, and promote it to the larger circles that I advice concerning wealth management, and before reactivating my gold/silver/BTC/XMR/fiat dealership enabling XMR to be bought with fiat, etc. is to announce all of it beforehand.

At face value, it looks like I am massively shooting at my own foot here, after all my stash has been bought many times higher than the price now, and buying more just became almost impossible with the supply drying up. But I have the understanding that the value of the currency is in the network of people who use it, and right now is the time to start getting back those people who were burning for Monero last summer but have since sold due to the depressing market and development taking time. The longer we wait until revaluation, the more violent it will be and again people will get burned. Abrupt and spectacular surges always happen with the coins, let's see if we can avoid it this time.

Everybody is invited to prove me wrong in the field. To fire a bullet, enter any amount in the box and click SELL. That'll teach me  Cheesy  I also have a kitty of customer funds for buying OTC, contact me.

I may have a problem in writing clearly enough for everybody, so some reading comprehension is required. Above, the plan is described in sufficient detail to answer the questions presented during the last hours, and enable everyone to take timely action, if they believe me.

If not, my advice is to wait until the next pump in the exchange rate, and use the big red buttom that removes your right to participate in XMR economy and value appreciation, but credits you a (currently) meager amount of BTC in return.
legendary
Activity: 1473
Merit: 1086
February 25, 2015, 03:23:34 AM
I think Ristos intention was to give everyone a chance to increase their holdings before his clients enter the market. In the long run a healthy distribution and a healthy community is more worth than watching half of the community cry because they jumped of the train at the first train station.

Maybe I am wrong, and the main pump is already behind us. But maybe i am not.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
February 24, 2015, 09:06:56 PM
@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

I think that with the continued support of as few as 10-20 middle-class (or higher) people and one XMR core developer, we can maintain the current market cap and liquidity.

Also, don't forget that many of XMR's supporters have even bigger investments in bitcoin. If bitcoin does well, then those 10-20 middle-class XMR core-supporters become heavies. 10 heavies supporting a coin with superior technology which already has all the essentials.

I'd say that the chance of total failure is less than 20%. In that sense I'm more optimistic than you. At the same time, I'd say that the chance of a 4000 billion dollar cryptocurrency market is much less than 1%. Perhaps closer to 0.1%. In that sense, I'm more pessimistic than you. However, these subjective differences don't really change the nature of the bet.
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
February 24, 2015, 08:14:47 PM
That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.

That would be a tough case to make when the price has actually gone down in the last 24 hours.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1000
February 24, 2015, 08:13:42 PM
That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.

Exactly the point

Rpietila has said that he needs to wait for resistance at higher prices to buy 400K XMR for his "clients", when that amount has been bought between 001 and 0016 in the past 3 days

Would you give someone money, knowing that they plan to buy in at higher prices (for whatever reason) when they could have bought lower had they kept their mouth shut?

Doesn't make sense..
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
February 24, 2015, 08:10:13 PM
That's pretty unethical to his investors ... who he's obligated to look out for (not us) if he's being honest.
hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
February 24, 2015, 08:06:38 PM
you guys are noobs at this why even question it, as if this is some altruistic honesty game?

fun fact: practically all US financial regulation was created because the savvy investors in new york were taking advantage of the unsophisticated farmers in the midwest. it's really surprising to me that this shit still works "Hey this person talk about money alot he must know what he's talking about, I should listen to everything he says like it's gospel"

This is a speculation thread. Questioning it is sort of the point.
hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
February 24, 2015, 08:03:11 PM
I really appreciate the warning, but heres what I would do: wait longer than I originally announced so most trigger-happy, short-term speculators would start to get dumpey and when prices are near of even bellow my original announcement I would start mass-buying, boom surprise Cheesy

Even if he let the price fall back to 0011 it wouldn't really make much difference when you consider the effect of buying 400 btc worth of xmr.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
February 24, 2015, 07:59:38 PM
Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

my question to rpietila is:

Why announce that you are buying $100K worth (or 300-400K XMR) at a higher price than now when that same amount has been bought in the past few days?

What kind of clients would give you money knowing that information?

not meaning to be rude here, but just wondering...

you guys are noobs at this why even question it, as if this is some altruistic honesty game?

fun fact: practically all US financial regulation was created because the savvy investors in new york were taking advantage of the unsophisticated farmers in the midwest. it's really surprising to me that this shit still works "Hey this person talk about money alot he must know what he's talking about, I should listen to everything he says like it's gospel"
hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
February 24, 2015, 07:50:24 PM
He says it was to give investors a fair opportunity to get in before making his move. However, I think everyone's had more than enough time, and we might have been better off not knowing.

Another possibility is that Risto was merely attempting to create a buy panic and had no intentions of directly manipulating the price.
legendary
Activity: 1218
Merit: 1000
February 24, 2015, 07:43:09 PM
Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

my question to rpietila is:

Why announce that you are buying $100K worth (or 300-400K XMR) at a higher price than now when that same amount has been bought in the past few days?

What kind of clients would give you money knowing that information?

not meaning to be rude here, but just wondering...
full member
Activity: 154
Merit: 100
February 24, 2015, 07:39:19 PM
Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

what was the announcement?  I must've missed it ...
hero member
Activity: 795
Merit: 514
February 24, 2015, 07:37:56 PM
Price is at 0014 and falling. Looks like everyone has secured their positions after RP's announcement, and have returned to watching and waiting.

Despite Risto's positive intentions with the announcement, we may have been better off not knowing the source of any future price increase. What may have been viewed as "renewed interest" is now just seen as "Risto pumping the price."
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