Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2060. (Read 3313076 times)

The point being that for a smallish percentage of the overall holdings (say,20%) its not too difficult to be smarter than the market. Trading alts over a couple of years has been some of the "easiest" speculation ever. Buy when there is anything that's likely to cause a pump. Don't buy if its already pumped.  If its pumped 50% its probably a top. Sell some off and buy back in a few days/weeks time. If we as larger holders and true believers did this more then more coins would be in stronger hands, dampening the variance and allowing our other community members to not have to constantly see their investments being slashed.

I've invested roughly 5% of my crypto holdings into Monero and i'd be totally happy with $300 XMR.

Coming from professional poker (basically financed my studies with it), EV calculations regarding crypto are little more problematic since the system is not closed.

Annyway no matter what slightly different objectives risto takes, in the core his investment techniques suggested are probably not the worst, especially for newbies. The VC approach is succesful  regarding altcoins.

Regarding the prices he suggests it sounds so unrealistic, and you could be free to choose any different set of numbers (and probably even slightly different multipliers) - he is always confronted with his unrealistic assumptions, because well they sound unrealistic and out of this world.

Professional trolls   will tell you that he argues with pascals wager and that it is bad to argue this way since his ev calculations could be used for any investment. They are right except when you add an additional condition:

You have to assume that the investment has a kind of intrinsic value, which basically means in crypto that it fulfils a function that bitcoin cannot or will not fulfil in the future. You have to assume that xmr could basically be (uniquely) useful in one specific part of international finance.

Regarding that I share his opinion and see the (potentially) intrinsic value

In my view, the private ledger one would become the dominant crypto, it most resembles "e-cash", and takes into account fungibility. I suspect in the future, Bitcoins that have been involved with scams wont be taken by vendors, since it's possible for authorities to track the bitcoins via the blockchain, and most scammers mix their bitcoins(So it'd look like the vendors who accept the tainted coins are apart of the scam).

Basically, if a private ledger currency and a public ledger one started at the same time, I believe the private ledger one would win out. However, the private ledger currency would also have to allow transparency as well. 2 in 1, instead of just 1 like the public ledger currency.

Interesting POV, certainly possible given the speed at which the world is changing.

What people think is important changes constantly. Decentralized and trustless systems are interesting right now because people are starting to get weary of being subject to the whims of banks and government bailouts. However, future events may increase demand for centralized banking and trust-based systems in general.

Privacy is no different. It's a hot topic right now, but who knows what we will find important down the line.

The main takeaway here is that even if these technologies fall out of popularity, we will always have them in our back pocket should the need arise.

"My opinion" can only be defined as "my estimate of the probabilities of various scenarios", and Expected Value can be calculated out of it. The problem with this approach is similar to someone asking a poker player: "What is your opinion, do you win this round?" Poker is not played out of opinion, but out of rigorous mathematical probabilities, coupled with psychology concerning the read of the opponent. Predicting the prices of Crypto is even harder since there are no rigorous probabilities that all would agree.

That said, I give about 50% chance that XMR will totally fail (be valued essentially at zero) in 2-3 years. The other 50% would be about:
- 10% valued at the same as now
- 10% valued at $1
- 10% valued at $2-5
- 10% valued at ~$10
- 10% valued at much more.

I cannot really give estimate on DRK. It currently has a higher marketcap than XMR but I haven't invested anything in it. I am not against premine but the way DRK is presenting theirs is unethical to my standards.

1. Code can't really be cloned (see below)

2. There is a tangible (sort of) use



I agree with you that better technology can sometimes replace worse technology, though not always. I disagree that merely cloned code can do much of anything, otherwise LTC would be more than a pimple on BTC's ass.

As for obsolescence, that will have to play out in the market. Eventually a technology matures to the point where it is good enough and dominates a market not because it is the best possible solution but because anything better is not better enough.

@rpietila

what is your opinion about the price for 1 xmr in about 2-3 Years and the same for DRK?

Thank´s for your answer

Hypothetical Question:

Not taking into consideration current adoption or first mover advantage but comparing two crypto currencies hypothetically conceived at the same time with the same particulars (emission, etc.) one with a public ledger such as bitcoin and one with a private untraceable one which one would be valued higher and why?

Hey man, we agree.

The difference between difficult and impossible is that I can jump 1.5 m high with difficulty, but 2 m is impossible.

XMR can go to $1 (BTC0.0045) with difficulty, but even $100,000 is not impossible.


Difficult things happen sometimes, impossible ones don't.

I get that.  I really do.

The problem is

A - Economics.  Is the world really going to adopt somethign that is going to make the rest of us rich for doing ... pretty much nothing?  With something that can be easily cloned to a different codebase (not something you can do with gold or silver), has no tangible uses (Gold and silver does), produces nothing (stocks own farms that create food or rent houses or make technology.

B - Technology.  By definition economic adoption needs stability (fiat dollar, gold, shekels, whatever) in order to be productive.  Technology in order to improve by definition needs to be disruptive.  Ethereum will be able to do everything bitcoin can do transaction wise with a fraction of the space and bandwidth (because they plan on doing so much other stuff they HAD to optimize).  When polotics gets in the way of technology - another coin will move in to wipe an old one out.

Monero will wipe darkcoin out.  Ethereum will wipe litecoin out.  Etc

This inhibits adoption

Bitcoin had the advantage of having first mover / only mover.  The entire landscape has changed.  I have heard you say you have the same type of feeling (several months ago).  I've seen you think that bitcoin was going to 100,000 per.

I'm not trying to be rude - only state that no one knows.  

I do love all the progress that's been made on XMR.  It really is one of the few interesting nonscam projects out there.

If you change that to always sell half (upon successive 10x), you won't feel bad with your 40-ft yacht when the others have private spacecraft...

Introspection: I am starting to sound very much like what I felt towards Bitcoin in March, 2013, as it crossed its all-time-high of $32 and relentlessly took new ground.

What foolishness to think that BTC could reach $2,000! The assurance of this possibility led me to buy them and now I have this castle  

Crypto will change the world.  But the ponzi scheme release curve will be antiquidated when people realize the network is worth what the security is worth.  And the fraction paid towards security is constantly going down in an effort to drive early adopters value thru the roof.

I own moneros and I like it much better than bitcoin (I also like Ethereum).  But there is an inbetween that thinks there IS a place for crypto - but the current output paradime is too greedy to encourage mass adoption.

Half of my Monero's are for sale at $3.  Another half at $30.  The rest at $300.

The part of bitching was not serious. I attempted to point to the fact that in USD terms, the current price of Monero is only twice what it was when the coin started trading and some of the current devs had not even heard about it. So that it is probably a good time to buy now, as certainly most of the week-old projects have already died by this age, and since XMR has not, the risks and uncertainties are now lower.


Here I am being totally serious. My 17-year successful online investing career suggests that this kind of opportunities are best tackled with a Venture Capital approach to wealth management (as described in enough detail in the post where the above quote is). In a prior post just 2 pages ago in the same thread, I presented a framework for the EV scenario analysis, including the probability calculation of how likely it is to reach each of the figures above, including that most likely none of them is ever reached. This leaves the possibility that some of them may be reached.

Also my intention was to make the reader realize, indeed, have an epiphany, that if crypto would ever become the dominant monetary system of the world (which is a commonly held belief among many respected cryptopeople, and has to be, since denying it would mean to hold the belief that crypto does not have any chance ever to become dominant), the market cap of the #1 coin has to rise to trillions of dollars at minimum, lest they could not act as the dominant money due to the lack of liquidity.

Unless you completely disregard the possibility of crypto changing the monetary paradigm, or the possibility for XMR to be the #1 crypto, the table above makes complete sense.
 
Note: I am not saying it is likely that you will need to sell your XMR at $200,000, ever. It does not need to be likely to be a +EV. Even if the chance for that happening were 1 in 100,000 (which is a low chance, the probability that a young person dies by accident is much higher per month), it still makes it worthwhile to buy, if Expected Value is what you are after.

A lecture in math & logic is always worth giving. How I wish I would have had access to this information when I was young  


Edited: only 17 years of my investing career is online.

Now I remember why he's on ignore.

You're super cool hawking your UNO bags in another coin's thread.

Already have a few, can't wait to become a billionaire!

You can smoke it?! brb