I have to slightly disagree with TrueCryptonaire, there are still some whales cost averaging and buying, this has not stopped yet. I think above 0.0010 (psychological level as well, although it broke last time) should certainly hold. Also recall that bullbear is covering XMR and they have a lot of subscribers, this will most likely give an influx of new users as well.
It is the proverbial game of chairs. As long as the music is played, it seems that there are plenty of chairs, and all the chairs are empty. Once it stops, for any reason, you cannot buy any serious quantity for the previous price any more.
This is well observed by checking any price chart of any coin, alt or
BTC. The spikes come suddenly, violently, relentlessly, overshoot, and then crash. If the coin is good, the post-crash level is a multiple of the previous level.
XMR has not demonstrated itself pricewise, you have to check the fundamentals when buying. Technically, it's bad, but remember - when the music stops, the opportunity to buy anything but crumbs is gone.
I certainly agree with your point. I personally think that there are a number of reasons for the current downtrend. At first you have the general crypto bear market (copyright smooth :-P), with the decline in btc, you will see a (leveraged) decline in alts. The current sentiment is just way too bearish, people are cashing out of crypto in general. Like ArticMine said before, in a bull market, alts will spike even higher than btc, but in a bear market, they will also fall deeper. Second, there is a lot of selling in order to buy back cheaper going on, eventually this will be countered by an uptrend, people will get nervous and will panic buy back in. Just look at the last bullrun from 0.0091 to 0.00193, we doubled in nearly a week and this was even in a bear market. Just imagine what will happen when btc is in a bull market. At last, the inflation might play a role in this downtrend, but I think the role of it is wildly exaggerated. XMR held easily above 0.03 when the inflation was a lot higher (although the general crypto sentiment was a lot better then). I think it is just a mix of the above factors. No one will really know when we will break the downtrend, but if we break upwards, it will certainly be explosive.