Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2076. (Read 3313076 times)

There are no real-world guarantees for the ingame loans. (This of course is the reason why "useless" = no opportunity cost XMR can fetch such an interest rate.) So if CK does not have at least beta=1 with the rise of XMR, the borrowers can walk away by surrendering their ingame assets to the bank. If the bank cannot meet its own obligations due to cascading defaults, it goes belly up and creditors do not receive in full.

This is how it should be IRL also, and was, when money was still something that could not be created at convenience.

Most creditors however, have a bond position of 200 XMR against a real-life XMR position of 20k or so. This creates to them a situation where they enjoy the nice interest rate with the "only risk" being that XMR rises so fast that the game cannot keep up, and they lose a fraction of the 1% lent, while the remaining 99% in cold wallet increases 10x or so in purchasing power.

The borrowers' risk is limited to ingame assets anyway.

Resemblance to pirateat40 is superficial at best.

Yes. That can work because there is an effective hedge, given that a rise in the value of XMR would lead to an increase in the value of CK and the assets therein. Without an effective hedge one can create a situation similar to the one in Russia where people were financing the purchase of Russian real estate with USD mortgages. Only in this case the impact can be far worse since for example XMR/USD can easily spike by a much greater factor than USD/RUB.

The fate of pirateat40 in 2012 with his massive XBT short position, is a very important lesson to anyone considering taking on XMR denominated debt today. 

IN CK, it's possible to lend XMR short-term at about 0.38% and borrow about 0.60%. The bank has borrowed 4227 XMR and lent out 3767 XMR.

It will be interesting when the value rises, how it will affect the game and if there will be foreclosures.  

The idea of borrowing XMR in any market but particularly in this market sends shivers up my spine.

Just my two moneritos. 

This is hugely important.  One of the beauties of cryptocuurencies is the ability to build whatever you want on top of them.

Sorry, wrong thread (thought I was posting to my Wall Observer - this is not related to XMR)

But we can't expect similar gains with any other coin, at least not like XMR. We'll see gains for sure, but Bitcoin is "the one and only", the father or coins... cant really compare and expect past performance on bitcoin be comparable with other coins.

I believe Aminorex is offering a non-CK bond. There's no reason why that needs to be put into the protocol.

Has it ever been suggested that a portion of the mining block rewards are diverted to pay interest to coin owners who buy 'bonds' those coins are then locked up in a cold storage wallet and can not be accessed for x amount of days - as  a way to encourage the use of Monero as a store of value?

I know Risto is going to chime in with some stuff about bonds in CK but I think working something like this into the code of the coin could be very beneficial.

Sorry wrong thread.

What are your price predictions for Monero for the next 6 months?

It has been very disheartening to see it fall so low.

If we combine this with the idea that XMR can reach .008 to .01 XMR/BTC before the end of next year to reclaim its previous place in the Top-16, we can truly get some scary numbers.

The more long-term calculations, which include the assumption that XMR can and will defeat many of the Top-16 players (Ybcoin, "BanxShares"? Come on.)  and advance closer to the Top 5 can be left as an exercise for the reader.

Not many predicted that we would reach $1242 per bitcoin in 2013, when it started the year at $13.50, unable to surpass the previous peak for 18 months.

The peak was surpassed, and 30 months after (the peak of 2011), Bitcoin was trading 40x higher.

I think this makes it more, not less, probable that the same can happen again and $50k reached if not this, the next year.


BTW. I was one of the (quite few) people to recognize that BTC's NPV was $2000 when it was trading at about $50 in March-13. This realization helped me a lot in the assurance of going speculatively all-in that year, and realizing a 600% gain in 7 months.

It is true that the prediction of $300k per bitcoin before the end of 2013 did not materialize, yet everyone who played along, did fantastically good by buying at $50. They either sold partly with me for 1000%+ gain, or are still holding for a 500% unrealized gain.

Every troll who does not have money to pay his own expenses would do well to heed this.

XMR's current market cap is $1,879,944. If every single pre-tail emission XMR (18.4 million) were mined, then the market cap would be $5,704,000 at its current price.
Namecoin is half-mined and already has a current market cap of 5.7 million. Fully mined (21 million), NMC's market cap would be $12,327,000.

NMC is a non-shitcoin with interesting technology, but realistically most people don't need censorship-free domain names. Maybe thepiratebay.org and wikileaks need them, but the rest of us don't. Also, NMC's community and development is on life-support. Their forums, subreddit, and BCT threads are basically all dead.
XMR's announcement thread alone (at 1000 pages and 20k posts) has more posts than NMC's subreddit, forum (https://forum.namecoin.info/), and announcement thread combined. Realistically, everyone wants and needs financial privacy. XMR has active development, donations, and is making rapid improvements in marketing efforts.

I think it's reasonable to conclude that XMR will surpass NMC again and get back into the TOP-16. XMR is at nearly 10% of its Poloniex all-time high of .01 against bitcoin while most other non-IPO alts like DOGE, LTC, PPC, and NMC are closer to 20% of their all time highs against bitcoin. Therefore, XMR is likely undervalued (in bitcoin) relative to other altcoins by a factor of two.

The following is my speculation:
1) XMR is currently undervalued by a factor of two against other alts (as explained above). It's been oversold mostly due to high supply inflation.
2) Comparable alts (LTC, DOGE, NMC, PPC, DRK) are currently undervalued against bitcoin by a factor of 2. That would be closer to their normal trading range.
3) Bitcoin is currently undervalued against the dollar by a factor of 5. (I'm not going to get into the details here. I can make a separate post about this.)
4) During a crypto-boom, alts and bitcoin have historically overshot and become overvalued against bitcoin and the dollar respectively. In an overshoot scenario, alts might rise against bitcoin by a factor of 5 (rather than 2) and bitcoin might rise against the dollar by a factor of 10* (rather than 5).

Conclusion:

At the absolute peak of the next cryptoboom, in the overvalued scenario, when all the stars have aligned,

$100 in bitcoin today might turn into $1000. (10x)
$100 in LTC/DOGE/NMC, etc. today might turn into $5000 (50x)
$100 in XMR today might turn into $10,000 (100x)

Of course, I'm not saying that you should go all-in on XMR or alts and try to sell everything for 100x. No one can sell everything at the peak, nor is it desirable. I'm just saying what's possible in light of history. XMR is at an all-time low against other alts. Other alts are at all-time lows against bitcoin. And of course bitcoin is down massively against the dollar over the past year. So this is the slingshot within the slingshot within the slingshot.

There are lots of things that are undervalued right now. Sugar is down 75% from its all time high. The Japanese stock market is still very low compared to its all time high. But sugar is traded in dollars, and dollars are strong. Dollars aren't going to go up 10x in value against other currencies like bitcoin might. Japanese stocks are traded in yen. Yen aren't going to go up 10x in value against other currencies. So there's no sugar slingshot or Japanese stock slingshot. There's no other opportunity like XMR on this planet right now. It's the most undervalued thing that I can find. Please let me know if you've found something more undervalued.

* (Note: As ridiculous as this sounds, I'm trying to be conservative. In an overvalued scenario, bitcoin might actually reach 20x the current price to reach $5000 per BTC)

lol, too bad they're not worth so much anymore, was fun while it lasted!

Pink for lyfe!

rangedriver has awarded luigi1111 9999 marks (for old time's sake and keen mathematical skills)

AFAICT, this equals +11.93%.

People will lose a lot of money when XMR goes up, do the math.

I guess now is good time to buy XMR.

Prices are very low, I got ridiculed for warning people not to buy when XMR was trading around 0.003 BTC or $3. Now prices are around 90% of this in $ terms. Almost 1/3 has been mined, inflation is still high but significantly lower. I am not sure we are ready for new bubble, but market cap is ridiculously low. Longer we stay at this levels bigger the rise as coins will be in strong hands.
Just to get to 10 biggest coins by market cap it needs to raise at least 5x in value...

XMR and other anon coins will slowly start to gain attention when more people will go to jail for transmitting BTC in connection with illegal activities.

You're talking Bitcoins from Coinbase? What I'm asking about is USD -> XMR directly.


That's CoinoUSD. You can buy it on Coinomat.com, but I don't see any reasonable way to acquire it by, say, a US bank account. They do accept BTC-e USD for CoinoUSD, but that doesn't seem to make things any easier.