Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2091. (Read 3313076 times)

You'd have to ask polo. I doubt they will tell you though.


Unknown


Also unknown.


Users can back up their key by writing it down (or printing, taking a picture, storing in a file, etc., but writing is safest).


At least this one we can answer. About 18,000.

1. How many XMR are currently sitting on Polo?

2. What percentage of coins are secured by users themselves?

3. How many XMR does mymonero hold?

Looking at mymonero it says the user controls their private key. But can they back it up in case the site gets hacked?

4. Roughly how many XMR are mined every day?

I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash.  That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory.  Liquidity is a natural monopoly.  Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled.  XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin.  

Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:

- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

- ZC will always fail usability.  The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested.  The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash.  It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle.  It also has no working implementation.

- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).

By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.

Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders.  When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time.  On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake).  

The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns.  Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.

Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups.   As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.

This is a concern.

A question though: For a trivial cost I could be running 10000 instances of bitmonerod. Or 100000. What mischief (if any) might someone perpetrate upon XMR by running the majority of wallets connected at any given time?

Hmmm... with that being said I wanted to accumulate another 700 XMR "soon". Would you suggest I wait a couple of days to 2 weeks to see if we go back down to 0.0011-0.0014 area? Or buy now so I don't have to buy when > 0.002?

It is hard to say for certain, but it seems to me that the christmas present perhaps was the 0.00194.

After all, it's +113% essentially in one week!

Now the 2nd fibonacci level I'd be seeking is in about 0.00130. Half retracement is 0.00142 and 1st order is 0.00155.

So unless (and that's a big IF for sure) others frontrun, I'll be buying around those prices in a few days or 2 weeks at most.

I think I predicted a resistance around 0.002 and even if not, there it is. At most I can see 0.00220 by tuesday and then a pullback. There are always people who want to cash out after a sharp rise, and others who question the viability of buying after a doubling.

Happy trading!  

Why do people feel it's ok to make outrageous claims without providing any evidence? How far did you have to stick your fist up your ass to pull that sort of nonsense out?

~2mn coins were issued in the first 48 hours due to problems with the difficulty readjustment. That represents approximately 10-15% of the total money supply that will ever be issued.

I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash.  That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory.  Liquidity is a natural monopoly.  Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled.  XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin. 

Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:

- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

- ZC will always fail usability.  The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested.  The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash.  It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle.  It also has no working implementation.

- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).

By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.

Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders.  When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time.  On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake). 

The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns.  Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.

Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups.   As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.

 

I can see the price coming back to test 0.0015 and maybe lower...better to take its time on the rise then to rocket straight up.

The darkcoin masternodes are, of course, more centralized than XMR's passive mixing system. Darkcoin advocates will be quick to talk about how expensive it would be to buy any significant number of nodes, yet I have not heard a sufficient response to the possibility that the NSA can infiltrate masternodes by secretly forcing Amazon or other cloud  computing service providers to grant them access.

Evan holds the most coins.

Who's that person ? Please tell us.