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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2092. (Read 3313076 times)

full member
Activity: 160
Merit: 100
December 28, 2014, 04:26:15 PM
- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

Is it true?

Who's that person ? Please tell us.
legendary
Activity: 2268
Merit: 1141
December 28, 2014, 04:21:21 PM
that reminds me of what I came here to ask:

aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more

I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash.  That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory.  Liquidity is a natural monopoly.  Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled.  XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin.  

Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:

- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

- ZC will always fail usability.  The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested.  The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash.  It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle.  It also has no working implementation.

- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).

By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.

Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders.  When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time.  On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake).  

The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns.  Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.

Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups.   As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.

 

One thing I noticed about the core developers of Bitcoin is they all had 0 problem making their real life names and faces known. They are public figures with nothing to hide.

Is this true with XMR developers? I'm not saying that XMR can't be successful unless this happens but I would say that XMR has all of the good elements that Litecoin had to make it as successful as it has been.

Atleast for David Latapie and fluffypony this is true, unfortunately I don't know the other devs stance on this subject. Maybe they can state about it themselves here? Tongue
legendary
Activity: 2492
Merit: 1473
LEALANA Bitcoin Grim Reaper
December 28, 2014, 04:14:40 PM
that reminds me of what I came here to ask:

aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more

I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash.  That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory.  Liquidity is a natural monopoly.  Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled.  XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin. 

Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:

- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

- ZC will always fail usability.  The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested.  The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash.  It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle.  It also has no working implementation.

- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).

By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.

Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders.  When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time.  On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake). 

The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns.  Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.

Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups.   As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.

 

One thing I noticed about the core developers of Bitcoin is they all had 0 problem making their real life names and faces known. They are public figures with nothing to hide.

Is this true with XMR developers? I'm not saying that XMR can't be successful unless this happens but I would say that XMR has all of the good elements that Litecoin had to make it as successful as it has been.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 28, 2014, 04:03:06 PM
- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

Is it true?

Their pre-mine was allegedly due to an unintentional bug, but the result is the same. 1,625,000 Darkcoins were created between the times of 3:54 and 11:22 on January 19th, 2014 (the DRK launch date).  Currently, there are 4,986,507 darkcoins. Darkcoin advocates will brush this off and talk about how Satoshi has lots of bitcoin.

The darkcoin masternodes are, of course, more centralized than XMR's passive mixing system. Darkcoin advocates will be quick to talk about how expensive it would be to buy any significant number of nodes, yet I have not heard a sufficient response to the possibility that the NSA can infiltrate masternodes by secretly forcing Amazon or other cloud  computing service providers to grant them access.

I'm not sure what "lacking useful proofs of security" means.
hero member
Activity: 700
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 04:01:56 PM
that reminds me of what I came here to ask:

aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more

I'm not buying anymore, bought some more at 0.0011-0.0012 but have more than enough XMR now.

Probably won't sell anything under 0.004.
hero member
Activity: 966
Merit: 1003
December 28, 2014, 03:47:06 PM
- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

Is it true?
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
December 28, 2014, 03:31:27 PM
that reminds me of what I came here to ask:

aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more

I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash.  That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory.  Liquidity is a natural monopoly.  Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled.  XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin. 

Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:

- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.

- ZC will always fail usability.  The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested.  The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash.  It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle.  It also has no working implementation.

- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).

By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.

Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders.  When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time.  On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake). 

The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns.  Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.

Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups.   As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.

 
hero member
Activity: 723
Merit: 503
December 28, 2014, 01:58:39 PM
obviously,
even for children  Wink
now  that price is controlled by bots  Grin


haha, how much do you think that is a factor? I find the liquidity to be frustratingly low still. I mean, better than other markets but you can barely move one bitcoin's worth of XMR without moving the price 5%

and that, fellows, is pathetic

maybe because a lot of holders consider the price too low?
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 01:48:27 PM
obviously,
even for children  Wink
now  that price is controlled by bots  Grin

you can barely move one bitcoin's worth of XMR without moving the price 5%


This is going to change very soon.

who, what, why, when, where, how?
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 01:47:54 PM
that reminds me of what I came here to ask:

aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
21 million. I want them all.
December 28, 2014, 01:47:30 PM
obviously,
even for children  Wink
now  that price is controlled by bots  Grin

you can barely move one bitcoin's worth of XMR without moving the price 5%


This is going to change very soon.
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 01:44:04 PM
obviously,
even for children  Wink
now  that price is controlled by bots  Grin

haha, how much do you think that is a factor? I find the liquidity to be frustratingly low still. I mean, better than other markets but you can barely move one bitcoin's worth of XMR without moving the price 5%

and that, fellows, is pathetic
legendary
Activity: 1120
Merit: 1000
December 28, 2014, 01:42:20 PM
obviously,
even for children  Wink
now  that price is controlled by bots  Grin
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 01:39:39 PM

wut.

alright, thats kind of cool, I don't really get it though


are people really acquiring XMR to participate in this turn based thing
hero member
Activity: 546
Merit: 500
December 28, 2014, 01:20:52 PM
What is Risto's CK game?
legendary
Activity: 1260
Merit: 1008
December 28, 2014, 12:36:48 PM
methinks its rediscovery of an awesome GUI preview circa august, evidence that the new database runs on something like 100 mb, and, yah know, because the coin is awesome due to the fact that the devs and the community want an actual functioning cash-like cryptocurrency that's valued based on its utility as opposed to its scarcity.

To the less traceable, potentially asic resistant moon!

yeah, totally kickin myself for not getting more when it was 30 cents.
G2M
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
Activity: 616
December 28, 2014, 12:32:44 PM
ok kidding aside, what's up with XMR?  price rise coupled with big volume spike got my attention.  looks like this could breakout above .002.

MEW successfully came together, as a representation of large coin holders, and performed a vote on a controversial subject. The action was done with the attention of the core team, and the two groups came to a unified decision on something that has been brought up over and over again since the first week Monero was launched.

Risto's CK game has been garnishing more and more attention, and it looks like the in-game currency might find its way to an exchange.

The core issues have been going along extremely well, relating to a core team provided local GUI coupled with a database. Progress to completion is unknown, but there is a non-testnet version of a db-using daemon. Probably Soon (tm).

Yet another wallet wrapper was released for bitmonerod.

The team has successfully released a stable release, representative of a significant overhaul of a lot of programming, that didn't involve a hard fork.

Transaction fees are down, and are adaptive.

Marketing is getting organized.

The December 20th deadline from BCX has passed, and people seem to have concluded that any type of fud was an elaborate ruse, and there are no significant exploits known to that user at this time that are capable of 'Doom (tm)'.

It's the end of the year, and yet another number of the fibonacci sequence has been passed in days since release, if you'd like to believe in the fibonacci sequence having anything to do with Monero growth. Personally, It's worked out pretty well for me Wink

The price touched OTC levels, at .00094. Personally, I could have still sold at that point and still came away with profit, but I really don't think the price could go that much lower. Who knows though, anything can still happen.

Or, maybe someone has created a high volume trading bot.

Also, mymonero now exists. This takes the frustration of getting to know the core monero software out of your hands for the time being, and instead own some Monero in a wallet address you control.

legendary
Activity: 3976
Merit: 1421
Life, Love and Laughter...
December 28, 2014, 12:21:10 PM
ok kidding aside, what's up with XMR?  price rise coupled with big volume spike got my attention.  looks like this could breakout above .002.
legendary
Activity: 981
Merit: 1005
No maps for these territories
December 28, 2014, 09:46:25 AM

In the US, you have Coinbase monitoring your transactions and cancelling accounts if you spend BTC at a gambling site, buy cannabis seeds, or do whatever is deemed unacceptable by the gov.


Is this true? If it is, are they just monitoring transactions out of Coinbase (Coinbase->dice) or further (Coinbase->wallet->dice)?

I can confirm with 100% certainly they monitor what you are doing and ask questions not just transactions out but also transactions in.

I don't know specifically what blockchain analysis they are doing, how far down the chain it goes, etc.

There are reports (which I can't confirm) of false positives on allegedly suspicious BTC activity which suggest they are looking more than one hop.


Cool news
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