that reminds me of what I came here to ask:
aside from bots, who is accumulating? I would like to know because I want to be more aware of their motivations. My position size in XMR is adequate but I may be interested in acquiring more
I am accumulating because I actually seriously believe that XMR is the single best candidate for a global instant liquidity vehicle - world-wide cash. That is a very extreme position, but it only requires a very small probability of accuracy over the very long run to make a substantial position compulsory. Liquidity is a natural monopoly. Network effects favor Bitcoin's continued dominance of the market for transparent liquidity, but the dark ledger niche remains to be filled. XMR has a balance of features, technical and usability, which make it a better candidate than any other coin.
Other reasonable candidates include DRK, zerocash/zerocoin implementations yet to be released, and alternate cryptonote species:
- DRK was pre-mine, is controlled by one person, and suffers from centralization, as well as lacking useful proofs of security.
- ZC will always fail usability. The cryptography is believed to be excellent, but is immature, untested. The size of the chain, the cost of the proofs, will prevent it from acting like cash. It is not very liquid for a liquidity vehicle. It also has no working implementation.
- Other cryptonotes lack the community, the social capital, as well as the liquidity leadership possessed by XMR, limited though that liquidity may be at the moment (a problem likely to be fixed in the usual way, by price).
By elimination, XMR, embryonic though it admittedly is, appears to be the most fit to rescue the human liberty to transact, and potentially the liberty to retain one's earnings indefinitely, without being subject to dilution, extortion or theft.
Even if we completely discount the extreme end-state as absurdly unlikely, the failure modes are very favorable to holders. When the three critical elements are in place technically - namely, DB, UI, and multisig - it is hard to see why the bulk of vulnerable transactions currently conducted on the open ledger would not move to the private ledger, starting with those most vulnerable ones which are suited to the prevailing liquidity levels at the time. On the basis of the history of bitcoin alone, a minimum upside target 200x the current trading price seems compelling, on the basis of dark net markets alone (when amplified by the inevitable speculative excess which will accompany such uptake).
The real threats to XMRs future prosperity are unknown unknowns. Any suggestions as to vulnerabilities to technical, economic, political risks which mitigate the brilliance of XMRs future prospects are enthusiastically solicited.
Similarly to BTC, I consider the core team to be the greatest single vulnerability, as its subversion or corruption by forces inimical to the interests of XMR holders would be devastating, but as core teams go, it is much more diverse, dispersed, and network-connected to the broader XMR community than are the overwhelming majority of cryptocurrency development groups. As XMR accumulates market cap, and entrepreneurs find niches for building enterprises which fill out the XMR economy, enhanced funding prospects should make it more feasible to expand and enhance these confidence-encouraging features of the team.