[XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2147.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

My intention (along with some that the others have already interpreted), has been to elucidate the asymmetry between the impact needed for price going down and price going up.

Currently, to force the price down 10%, one needs to sell 39,000 XMR. About ~9 people have this amount if they sell it all. Needless to say, it is unlikely that the price would go down unless many of them combine to sell large parts of their holdings.

To keep the price from going down 10%, one needs to absorb the 39,000 XMR by selling 100 BTC. There are 10,000 people in the world with 100 BTC, and if fiat holders are taken into account, the number rises to high 100s of millions(!).

Therefore, any 1 out of 100s of millions can keep the price up (or make it go up, which is analoguous), but it takes concerted (in)action of several out of ~9 to make it go down.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:56:12 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:19:03 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.

The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

"Believe" was a bad choice of words on my part. After all you can believe any number of things and not act on it for whatever reason (such as lack of funds). "Bid" would be a better word. As in: as long as two market participants are willing to bid X then the price will be at least X. I think you can infer that from Risto's statement at all. He said "everyone" but really it can only matter what market participants do, not "everyone."

But again, market participants may change what they do in response to the actions of others. If enough coins are being dumped, people who were willing to bid X might relent and stop bidding. What was correct about Risto's statement is that it only takes two participants being willing to bid at a given level to keep the price at a given level, but that says nothing about whether such people exist at any given time. I also don't agree with him about the asymmetry. The same thing could be said about sellers, except in that sellers are never required (due to mining) but buyers are always required.

freebud

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:56:12 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:19:03 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.

The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

wtf, I fail to see how any "believer" should be "forced" to buy all the coins and support the market alone.

only peep complaining about the price are trolls using to bash Monero once again (not saying you are one!)

Have you actually read the discussion? I was replying to smooth, who came up with that theory. I certainly don't think any "believer" should or would hold the price for the rest.
I can understand the "Troll" paranoia after what we have been through in the last couple of months, but please do make an effort to discern Trolling and honest discussion.

freebud

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:36:21 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:19:03 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.

The two "believers" should also have enough funds to absorb all the sold coins, which is (almost) not different from the "going up" case where someone decides to sell all available coins above a certain price. The only difference I see is that the number of coins available in the world is much smaller than the amount of fiat.
But, is this a theoretical discussion, or a discussion about the real world? Do you think that Risto's comment is true for the XMR market?

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:31:17 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:19:03 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..

I disagree for this reason. As long as the continuous auction is going on, it is a price setting process and other trading must agree with it, since you can't have more than one market price in the same market at the same time. What may happen is if that Risto decides he doesn't like Monero, that decision and actions he may subsequently take based on that decision may in turn convince everyone (or all but one person) that a lower price is more appropriate. But as long as two people steadfastly believe the price should be X, then the price will be at least X.

freebud

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Quote from: smooth on October 06, 2014, 01:19:03 PM

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

Most of the coins are not in the hands of miners, and I think the market mechanics are quite detached from what you are suggesting. Risto can decide alone that he doesn't like Monero anymore, and cash out. Good luck to all of us thinking the current price is fair..

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: DogeMajestic on October 06, 2014, 01:22:42 PM

@smooth

are you developer or support & PR manager of monero?

you seem to post here 10+ hours a day. when is time to code left in between all that support and pr?

I only sleep a few hours a day and I often multitask between doing other work (both Monero and non-Monero related). I have a large multimonitor setup so I can many windows open and switch between them frequently. Some of my posts are from mobile too.

Quote

any ETA on the Monero GUI? ty!

There should be an announcement on this fairly soon.

DogeMajestic

full member

Activity: 139

Merit: 107

@smooth

are you developer or support & PR manager of monero?

you seem to post here 10+ hours a day. when is time to code left in between all that support and pr?

any ETA on the Monero GUI? ty!

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: freebud on October 06, 2014, 01:03:46 PM

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

There is some truth to it given that the mechanism for mining set up something like a continuous auction where everyone (including the original miner) bids for each block. In that sense I would slightly disagree with the original comment. There need to be two people who agree with a price in order to sustain it, not just one, because otherwise the high bidder can bid less and still win.

freebud

newbie

Activity: 33

Merit: 0

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

I can't believe you really think that..
I perceive most of real XMR supporters as quite intelligent, and you being the executive of MEW should think a bit longer before writing nonsense.

robinwilliams

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: rpietila on October 06, 2014, 12:40:28 PM

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

Actually not sure this is quite the case. One sell of 35 bitcoins would bring us down significantly last time I saw.

Depending on one persons financial status & their confidence in bitcoin this could cause a significant discount to curernt prices.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Quote from: rangedriver on October 06, 2014, 12:30:13 PM

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

The mechanism for going down requires everybody to simultaneously decide that the current level is too high. If there is even one who thinks otherwise, it does not go down.

Going up is much different. A few, even just one, people deciding to buy, make it go up.

rangedriver

hero member

Activity: 714

Merit: 504

Quote from: robinwilliams on October 06, 2014, 10:37:27 AM

Quote

To be discredited to a clown troll like you is a honor, I would feel ashamed if you agreed with me, as it goes against your trollgenda.

now go give money jl777 his 2mm USD are not enough, he now needs to hide in Cambodia for the rest of his life.

I've seen you present no evidence about jl777. Unless you bring evidence to the table that someone is a thief when making an accusation (especially a high profile name) - you are simply a clown. I dislike Jl777 & supernet to the highest degree. But I don't baselessly accuse without any evidence.

Has anyone noticed that XMR seems poised to take a dramatic down or upturn? Any volume seems to move it alot. A 30btch buy or dump would significantly move the needle. I can't help but think it's poised to drop into the low 20's or back into the mid 30's.

It's Cryptsy's next project. New Exchange Syndrome could see it rise for an all time high, if not the high 0.0090s.

Unlikely to go down now. There would need to be a good reason for it to do so.

robinwilliams

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote

To be discredited to a clown troll like you is a honor, I would feel ashamed if you agreed with me, as it goes against your trollgenda.

now go give money jl777 his 2mm USD are not enough, he now needs to hide in Cambodia for the rest of his life.

I've seen you present no evidence about jl777. Unless you bring evidence to the table that someone is a thief when making an accusation (especially a high profile name) - you are simply a clown. I dislike Jl777 & supernet to the highest degree. But I don't baselessly accuse without any evidence.

Has anyone noticed that XMR seems poised to take a dramatic down or upturn? Any volume seems to move it alot. A 30btch buy or dump would significantly move the needle. I can't help but think it's poised to drop into the low 20's or back into the mid 30's.

rpietila

donator

Activity: 1722

Merit: 1036

Overall, I would keep the mentioning of coins that are and belong to further than TOP-30 at a minimum. Not only this is a Monero thread, but also any mention of shitcoins, scamcoins, copycoins, p&d-coins, and fly-by-night coins may make some people buy into them, even with a small amount, and thus perpetuate their existence.

PLEASE, I come to Monero threads to get to speak about Monero. Just that other coins exist is not a reason to let them be discussed here.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on October 05, 2014, 05:59:22 PM

Quote from: smooth on October 05, 2014, 04:32:57 PM

Let's keep the discussion of personalities and other coins to a minimum unless there is a direct tie-in to Monero speculation

XMR and BBR are substitute goods. Discussing one without the other is like discussing platinum while ignoring palladium:

That sort of analysis is relevant and fine as long a it doesn't get repetitive (support via evidence from the markets would make it even better). Accusations of some person somewhat associated with another coin being a criminal are too far afield, at least until and unless it becomes more than baseless speculation

iCEBREAKER

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1072

Crypto is the separation of Power and State.

Quote from: smooth on October 05, 2014, 04:32:57 PM

Let's keep the discussion of personalities and other coins to a minimum unless there is a direct tie-in to Monero speculation

XMR and BBR are substitute goods. Discussing one without the other is like discussing platinum while ignoring palladium:

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

Quote from: znaky on October 04, 2014, 04:12:25 AM

Hi,

Just wanted to let you know I have created a service for live monitoring of monero price: http://moneromarkets.com/

Its faster than the poloniex-site. Only supports poloniex today, but will add others if anyone requests it.

You could add HitBtc, since there is 30% of Moneros traded. I wonder if you could combine them together? That would cover 80-90% volume.

About price all says Sunday is best day for buying alts. And Monero always proved worse at beginning of month.

smooth

legendary

Activity: 2968

Merit: 1198

Let's keep the discussion of personalities and other coins to a minimum unless there is a direct tie-in to Monero speculation

robinwilliams

member

Activity: 112

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: oda.krell on October 05, 2014, 09:35:12 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: iCEBREAKER on October 05, 2014, 07:38:27 AM

Quote from: ?? on ??

down we go, where is the buy support, where are the walls ? Undecided

hard times for xmr holders, good time to buy i think if u have fiat

BBR Buy Orders: 230 BTC
XMR Buy Orders: 145 BTC

WTF. Has this ever happened before?

Because BBR is backed by the master scammer JL777 or whatever is his nick.

Don't, please.

I like to think of XMR and BBR as "brother" coins. Some amount of rivalry is fine, but slander isn't the way to go.

haha

where are these friendly words when Risto is attacked for backing XMR?

jl777 told me he used to own 1% of all xmr but dumped it all for bbr because he disliked the XMR community, he is now a man wanted by law for his fraudulent schemes

major BBR holder is an anonymous scammer.

no one knows who BBR dev is and 1% of coins goes to him, plus its marketing campaign and major supporters bash Monero on regular basis, its sickening

things do not look good for BBR.

there goes your brotherly coins.

Quote

he is now a man wanted by law

you're a liar and have lost credibility.

has anyone noticed 50btc down to 250 on the order books?

Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 2147. (Read 3313070 times)