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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 238. (Read 3313084 times)

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

Quote from: elrippos friend on August 27, 2018, 10:49:28 AM

Network HasRate gained more than 30% in the last hours Roll Eyes

30% is not so little. Are you sure? To me it looks network hash rate is between 460 and 470 MH/s what is close to what it was last few months.

https://www.coinwarz.com/network-hashrate-charts/monero-network-hashrate-chart

Monero mining subredit is totally calm. So I am skeptical you are right.

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

Merit: 210

only hodl what you understand and love!

Network HasRate gained more than 30% in the last hours Roll Eyes

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: Cyrus on August 27, 2018, 09:34:31 AM

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Great! thanks for the quick action.

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

Merit: 210

only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: Cyrus on August 27, 2018, 09:34:31 AM

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Dear Cyrus,
did you already have the time to respond to my PM regarding my hacked account. Last year you did not respond, i hope you could do this now.

Kind regards,
elrippo

Cyrus

administrator

Activity: 3962

Merit: 3184

Banned him. If you notice copy pasters, report them and they'll be taken care of. Including the source in the report helps. Thanks.

Febo

legendary

Activity: 2730

Merit: 1288

I reported him. Strange that someone with 180 activity is doing this and was not banned yet. Maybe this that he changes few words helps him stay alive.

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: ?? on ??

I was waiting until 1800 for the market to open on Poloniex, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock. Saw on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price. Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

WTF, is this a bot account?

EDIT:

YUP, Bot.

Quote from: Cryptobro on September 05, 2014, 02:39:15 AM

Quote from: rpietila on September 05, 2014, 01:52:13 AM

Because I am slow to type, I could not participate in the initial whipsaw

There's a win for the little guys Wink

I was waiting until 3am for the market to open on Polo, when it finally happened it moved so fast I was in shock...saw 375 on the sell orders after about 2 seconds and I thought to myself, no way it got down here that fast, something clicked and I picked up 150 odd coins at that price...Obviously tiny in comparison to most but I'm happy about it. Especially after worrying all day I was going to lose all my XMR due to the hack, afterall it's been pretty much the only coin I hold that has done well.

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

Merit: 210

only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: Hueristic on August 26, 2018, 10:47:42 PM

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on August 26, 2018, 07:45:12 PM

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n... Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut.

Monero has it's own mindset and that's one reason i am full in this coin Grin

Hueristic

legendary

Activity: 3836

Merit: 4969

Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it

Quote from: cAPSLOCK on August 26, 2018, 07:45:12 PM

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n... Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

I'd comment but wouldn't want to be called a conspiracy nut.

cAPSLOCK

legendary

Activity: 3766

Merit: 5146

Note the unconventional cAPITALIZATION!

Quote from: elrippos friend on August 26, 2018, 04:44:54 PM

Quote from: Shnikes101 on August 26, 2018, 02:44:17 PM

Damn...
https://monerobase.com/article/monero_devmeeting_2018-08-26

Highlights
*The tentative date for the next fork is scheduled for October 18th, 2018.
*SChernykh Has posted the last of the CryptoNight-v2 changes.
-Will be merged soon
-This will be the new Proof of Work
*The last of the bulletproofs code will be merged soon.
-May or may not include some additional speedup code.
*Endogenic could use some help reviewing the LightWallet pull request
*ph4r05 has submitted some preliminary code to support Trezor devices
*Once the new BulletProofs and CryptoNight-v2 code has been merged, testnet will reorg and testers will be required.
-This is expected to happen next week. As early as Tuesday.
*There may still be an updated v0.12.4.0 GUI release prior to the fork.
*Work is ongoing to create reproducible builds for Monero. Additional help is requested.
*Next meeting is September 9th, 2018

Nice

Verry nice!

Anyone also notice that Montero is doing it's weird contrarian thing? Alts go UP!!! Monsanto goes ... d o w n... Alts go down! Mediterraneo sneakily starts rising...

elrippos friend

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only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: Shnikes101 on August 26, 2018, 02:44:17 PM

Nice

Shnikes101

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elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

Merit: 210

only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: aminorex on August 25, 2018, 05:23:41 PM

I would tend to apply it over the pre-asic era to calibrate a scaling factor, and over the post-asic era to make an estimation. It's just a price-of-electricity estimation of a support level. I should add a Bitcoin price factor to test correlation to historical price:

(H*(T - aR) * b + c)*B

a, b, c are the parameters to fit. Since I was going from a one parameter model to a multiparameter model, I thought I should remove the ratio hack as no longer useful, thus eliminating the time window stealth parameter.

Adding a hype factor: Use Google trends on "Monero" to obtain

(H*(T - aR + dG) * b + c)*B

OK, so for the legend

H=Hashrate
T=Transactionvolume
R=Reward/Block
B=Bitcoin price in $
a,b,c,d="random" scaling factor

(427mh/s*(100tph - 4XMR/block)* 0,000001)*6600$=270,5472$/XMR

Other inputs are welcome Grin

EDIT: Calculating the same with your first given calculation model would equal to

427mh/s*100tph/4xmr/block*0,000001=0,010675BTC/xmr

aminorex

legendary

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Sine secretum non libertas

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

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only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: aminorex on August 25, 2018, 02:40:46 PM

Quote from: elrippos friend on August 25, 2018, 04:49:49 AM

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2018, 07:27:09 AM

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.

Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?

I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH Grin

aminorex

legendary

Activity: 1596

Merit: 1030

Sine secretum non libertas

Quote from: elrippos friend on August 25, 2018, 04:49:49 AM

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2018, 07:27:09 AM

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.

elrippos friend

full member

Activity: 1179

Merit: 210

only hodl what you understand and love!

Quote from: aminorex on August 23, 2018, 07:27:09 AM

Quote from: rinus on August 14, 2018, 10:36:49 AM

1000 usd xmr looks so far away. Hopefully we get there eventually

Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.

433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what???

At the moment writing we have rate of 0,0137400BTC/XMR which equals in ~$92 so if you devide the result by 1.000.000 you get pretty near to the BTC/XMR rate.

Is that right or did i get anything wrong?

Dotto

legendary

Activity: 981

Merit: 1005

No maps for these territories

Quote from: ozkraut on August 24, 2018, 07:07:42 PM

Quote from: Dotto on August 24, 2018, 02:35:43 PM

Im 6 to 9 months out of the crypto loop. Hadnt read a single new.

I have a brand new ledger nano to move all the moneros in. If someone can tell me where is the more updated guide would be helpful.

It is safe to move all my moneros there?

This should get you started:

https://old.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/925q5m/gui_v01230_with_direct_ledger_support_released/

Thanks, Oz!

Johnny Mnemonic

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