Multiply hash rate times transaction volume and divide by emission. Extrapolate linearly.
433,5MH/s*126tph/4xmr/block=13655,25what??? My intention was to describe a time series which should correlate with XMR USD over some local time window. the time window would have to be short enough so that the approximative use of a ratio spread instead of a subtracted spread did not lead to excessive distortion, and long enough for constant noise not too interfere too much with the correlation. The series would need to be scaled by some constant factor to have any utility for supply/demand price estimation. The use of a ratio spread was motivated by a desire to avoid calibrating a scaling parameter.
Ok, got your intention and i think i got your thinking on this matter. Hence the hashrate dropped pretty heavily since the last hard fork this calculation model can be estimated as an indicator.
Lets pretend we take the the scaling factor of 1.000.000 then MOnerO seemed to be heavily overpriced with the effect of the last hard fork. Now the price drops to the result of calculation model within somewhat of 4 months, so this can be seen as an indicator for this. The question is, will correlate also in the other direction?
I did some studies on historic charts and honestly i did not find a clear factor of time latency, where this could correlate, but let's watch and learn something from the next ATH
