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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 454. (Read 3313786 times)

sr. member
Activity: 696
Merit: 439
December 04, 2017, 11:13:17 AM
GloBee will be hosting the last Monero meetup of the year in South Africa on Dec 7, will they be announcing any new details about the project?


Also, on GloBee's twitter:

"Warning: Monero enthusiast alert. Come through for the #Monero meetup, Thurs 7 Dec 17, in South Africa, JoBurg. RSVP here http://meetu.ps/e/DvVQb/yJMhh/f"

https://twitter.com/GlobeeCom

sr. member
Activity: 504
Merit: 250
December 04, 2017, 10:49:57 AM
Quote
monthly predictions on XMR/USD through June 2018 based on returns to date and the road to $500 and $1,000

From April 2014 to now, XMR/USD has had a geometric return of approximately 0.3696% per day. Extrapolating that into the future gives us the following monthly prices:

$220 on Dec 31, 2017
$247 on Jan 31, 2018
$274 on Feb 28, 2018
$307 on Mar 31, 2018
$343 on Apr 30, 2018
$385 on May 31, 2018 and
$430 on Jun 30, 2018
...
...
I saw $209 yesterday.  Pretty confident it will be up more than $11 this month.
I’m guessing @EuSouBitcoin is taking into account that after pumps Monero seems to slowly lose it’s value on and off until it hits it’s next pump.

I’m going to guess that we’ll see 180$ going into Jan. as Monero slowly loses value coming off the pumps now, but then hits another pump sometime mid-January (at least that’s what I expect).
legendary
Activity: 2016
Merit: 1259
December 04, 2017, 04:26:45 AM
monthly predictions on XMR/USD through June 2018 based on returns to date and the road to $500 and $1,000

From April 2014 to now, XMR/USD has had a geometric return of approximately 0.3696% per day. Extrapolating that into the future gives us the following monthly prices:

$220 on Dec 31, 2017
$247 on Jan 31, 2018
$274 on Feb 28, 2018
$307 on Mar 31, 2018
$343 on Apr 30, 2018
$385 on May 31, 2018 and
$430 on Jun 30, 2018

If that pattern continues, $500 would be hit on Aug 10, 2018 and $1,000 would be reached on Feb 14, 2019! Talk about a sweet valentine!

What happens if you begin with January 2016 ?

I saw $209 yesterday.  Pretty confident it will be up more than $11 this month.
Block reward is under 6 XMR.  I recall when it was 16XMR... per minute.  That kept a lid on the price, but we all knew (well, many of us) that the dwindling supply would coincide with wider adoption for a considerable land race.  I think it's under way.  Development is progressing faster, and faster.  We move faster, and faster.  Awesome.
sr. member
Activity: 490
Merit: 251
December 04, 2017, 01:23:26 AM
monthly predictions on XMR/USD through June 2018 based on returns to date and the road to $500 and $1,000

From April 2014 to now, XMR/USD has had a geometric return of approximately 0.3696% per day. Extrapolating that into the future gives us the following monthly prices:

$220 on Dec 31, 2017
$247 on Jan 31, 2018
$274 on Feb 28, 2018
$307 on Mar 31, 2018
$343 on Apr 30, 2018
$385 on May 31, 2018 and
$430 on Jun 30, 2018

If that pattern continues, $500 would be hit on Aug 10, 2018 and $1,000 would be reached on Feb 14, 2019! Talk about a sweet valentine!
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 03, 2017, 09:21:29 PM
price to follow stairstep pattern


Cool, Wish I had that on one of my Acid trips!


Quote
Monero Standards. Right now, we don't have a comprehensive list of how Monero works, all the various primitives and how they all fit together. Sarang and I have begun working on some Monero Standards that are similar to the original Cryptonote Standards (see here for more information). For each standard, from our hash function on upward, we will describe the standard, provide a justification for Monero's choices in those standards (complete with references), as well as a list of possible replacement standards. For example, our Monero RingCT Standard should describe the RingCT scheme described by shen, which is essentially a ring signature with linear combinations of signing keys + amount commitments. Under the "possible replacements" section, we would describe both the RTRS RingCT scheme and the doubly efficient zk-snark technology as two separate options.

What about ZK-Starks?

Added:

Quote
In this case, however, it means that our choice of hash function is not likely to be supported in common, well-vetted libraries in the future. Moreover, since SHA-3 is an international standard, it shall be undergoing heavy stress testing over the coming decades, a benefit Keccak3 shall not enjoy.

I don't understand this, Monero itself is giving Keddak3 all the stress testing it needs with this market cap wouldn't you think?

Quote
December plan. I am going to finish multisig, and then finish the zk-lit review with Jeffrey Quesnelle, since these are both slam dunks. Any other time in December I have will be devoted to a) looking into the logistics of using the bulletproofs + RTRS RingCT set-up, b) reading the new zk-stark paper and assessing its importance for Monero, c) beginning work on Monero Standards, which includes addressing our hash function criticisms, our PRNG, etc.

OK, I see now why it was not included in the aforementioned.
full member
Activity: 149
Merit: 100
December 03, 2017, 07:23:03 PM

CoinHoarder, both of your suggestions have been talked about somewhat recently.

Suggestion 1) Changing PoW
https://forum.getmonero.org/9/work-in-progress/87822/continued-funding-for-postdoctoral-researcher-surae-noether-me  (also discusses multisig)

Snippit of the quote
Quote
POW-Difficulty Replacement Contest. Some time in December, I am going to formalize an FFS "idea" to open up a multiple-round contest for possible replacements for our proof of work game. The first round would have a 3- or 6-month deadline. Personally, I would love it if this FFS could have an unbounded reward amount. If the community is extremely generous, we could easily whip up a large enough reward to spur lots and lots of interest across the world.  *SNIP*

Suggestion 2) Adding Multisig, lightning Network and Atomic Swaps.

Multisig is in the works currently on GitHub and lightning/atomic swaps mentioned on twitter.
https://twitter.com/fluffypony/status/913667796025921536

Quote
Q.  Forgive me if I sound too noob, but would something like atomic swaps be viable between say. your project and monero?

A.  Yes - that’s why we’re both working to get Lightning 100% working on both Monero and Litecoin
sr. member
Activity: 807
Merit: 423
December 03, 2017, 06:40:39 PM
price to follow stairstep pattern
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
December 03, 2017, 06:17:48 PM
For those interested: https://www.decentralized.tech/blogs/evaluation-evaluating-monero

Comments, questions, concerns?

Retweet if you'd like to support what I do in the crypto space. Smiley

Thanks

https://twitter.com/DecentralizTech/status/937365829674569728

NON JS copy?

Im no techie analyst at all, but we will see upward moves in 2018. End 2018/19 will be bumper mega bucks year. The wallet has it made. Strap on your seatbelts, I have and we are going places at breakneck speeds soon.

Because of emission mid 2019 should be the boiling point.  But emission is just one part that is getting more and more irrelevant. Year and a half is quite some time so I cant even imagine how Monero will look then. All tings worked on right now will be done. Many things planed right now will be done. Some things not planed yet will be done and maybe few things we ant even dram today about them will be also done.


When will XMR hit 1Kusd for the first time.

I'm going to guess Jan 2019.

As things roll right now that is quite pessimistic.  I do high chance of 90% that $1000 Monero will happen in 2018.


The more I read about the monero, the more coins I want to buy) The guys you do not know the timing of the introduction of the Korvie update and the introduction of multi-signatures, at least approximate.

No one knows that. But multisig will be way earlier then kovri.


Guys, how can you plan price on more than half-year horizon? In crypto now much events in different fields. Banks, politics, government. Or XMR so stable that all this mean nothing for coin?

This is the speculation thread. Smiley

http://www.dictionary.com/browse/speculation

legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
December 03, 2017, 01:45:50 PM
Im no techie analyst at all, but we will see upward moves in 2018. End 2018/19 will be bumper mega bucks year. The wallet has it made. Strap on your seatbelts, I have and we are going places at breakneck speeds soon.

Because of emission mid 2019 should be the boiling point.  But emission is just one part that is getting more and more irrelevant. Year and a half is quite some time so I cant even imagine how Monero will look then. All tings worked on right now will be done. Many things planed right now will be done. Some things not planed yet will be done and maybe few things we ant even dram today about them will be also done.


When will XMR hit 1Kusd for the first time.

I'm going to guess Jan 2019.

As things roll right now that is quite pessimistic.  I do high chance of 90% that $1000 Monero will happen in 2018.


The more I read about the monero, the more coins I want to buy) The guys you do not know the timing of the introduction of the Korvie update and the introduction of multi-signatures, at least approximate.

No one knows that. But multisig will be way earlier then kovri.


Guys, how can you plan price on more than half-year horizon? In crypto now much events in different fields. Banks, politics, government. Or XMR so stable that all this mean nothing for coin?

I counted all in politics, markets, banks, governments. Everything. There is 90% chance Monero will go over $1000 in 2018.
sr. member
Activity: 896
Merit: 251
December 03, 2017, 12:24:25 PM
Im no techie analyst at all, but we will see upward moves in 2018. End 2018/19 will be bumper mega bucks year. The wallet has it made. Strap on your seatbelts, I have and we are going places at breakneck speeds soon.

Because of emission mid 2019 should be the boiling point.  But emission is just one part that is getting more and more irrelevant. Year and a half is quite some time so I cant even imagine how Monero will look then. All tings worked on right now will be done. Many things planed right now will be done. Some things not planed yet will be done and maybe few things we ant even dram today about them will be also done.


When will XMR hit 1Kusd for the first time.

I'm going to guess Jan 2019.

As things roll right now that is quite pessimistic.  I do high chance of 90% that $1000 Monero will happen in 2018.


The more I read about the monero, the more coins I want to buy) The guys you do not know the timing of the introduction of the Korvie update and the introduction of multi-signatures, at least approximate.

No one knows that. But multisig will be way earlier then kovri.


Guys, how can you plan price on more than half-year horizon? In crypto now much events in different fields. Banks, politics, government. Or XMR so stable that all this mean nothing for coin?
legendary
Activity: 1484
Merit: 1026
In Cryptocoins I Trust
December 03, 2017, 12:02:55 PM
For those interested: https://www.decentralized.tech/blogs/evaluation-evaluating-monero

Comments, questions, concerns?

Retweet if you'd like to support what I do in the crypto space. Smiley

Thanks

https://twitter.com/DecentralizTech/status/937365829674569728
legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
December 03, 2017, 11:01:50 AM
Im no techie analyst at all, but we will see upward moves in 2018. End 2018/19 will be bumper mega bucks year. The wallet has it made. Strap on your seatbelts, I have and we are going places at breakneck speeds soon.

Because of emission mid 2019 should be the boiling point.  But emission is just one part that is getting more and more irrelevant. Year and a half is quite some time so I cant even imagine how Monero will look then. All tings worked on right now will be done. Many things planed right now will be done. Some things not planed yet will be done and maybe few things we ant even dram today about them will be also done.


When will XMR hit 1Kusd for the first time.

I'm going to guess Jan 2019.

As things roll right now that is quite pessimistic.  I do high chance of 90% that $1000 Monero will happen in 2018.


The more I read about the monero, the more coins I want to buy) The guys you do not know the timing of the introduction of the Korvie update and the introduction of multi-signatures, at least approximate.

No one knows that. But multisig will be way earlier then kovri.


hero member
Activity: 2352
Merit: 953
Temporary forum vacation
December 03, 2017, 10:02:14 AM
When is the next hard fork scheduled? Or is it? Can't seem to find a good answer in the announcement thread or anywhere else.

Every 6 months, next one is in March.

Also, Monero's stack exchange is a usually the best place to look--rarely is there an answer that can't be found there.

Thanks for that, I was also wondering on the same question. If we look at the charts, we see a slight sell off before every hard fork, so I am really looking forward to my Monero gaining high ground on February, at which point I will probably sell a small position, and look to buy back in some time around the fork. Should give me a slight boost to my Monero holdings. Not much, I admit, but very happy with where it is going now. However, still a lot of time between now and then.
member
Activity: 200
Merit: 47
December 03, 2017, 09:44:23 AM
if its banned by the US government before that time then I can't see it ever hitting anywhere near those heights.

Not gonna happen.  Be realistic.  Much, much more risk from bugs (code or protocol) and even endogenous governance issues (cf. Bitcoin core).  

Typically there is a sell off before the fork, and buying gets serious again once it is clear that the network has cleanly upgraded.  This is pretty predictable, but the market is too small and too skittery to really smooth it out yet, I think, so it should be actionable.  

Given the new total crypto marketcap, which is now much higher than last time I took a guess about this, it seems conceivable, if unlikely, that a subsequent leap in adoption on DNMs could push us over 1k quite quickly, so I would say the earliest date for 1k is May.  Any delay past 2019 would seem to require some sort of disaster - which, I opine, would be more likely to come from BTC, ETH or the global economy than from endogenous issues.  A central estimate would require actual work.



Good point. Overall are you optimistic about Monero’s future?
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
December 03, 2017, 09:42:06 AM
When is the next hard fork scheduled? Or is it? Can't seem to find a good answer in the announcement thread or anywhere else.

Every 6 months, next one is in March.

Also, Monero's stack exchange is a usually the best place to look--rarely is there an answer that can't be found there.
full member
Activity: 142
Merit: 100
December 03, 2017, 09:26:41 AM
When is the next hard fork scheduled? Or is it? Can't seem to find a good answer in the announcement thread or anywhere else.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
December 03, 2017, 09:02:25 AM

Ha!  Great article, nice one to chuck at Dashheads when they crawl in due to their struggle with their congenital insecurities.
legendary
Activity: 1750
Merit: 1036
Facts are more efficient than fud
December 03, 2017, 08:46:59 AM
I have a theory. Monero will become the future currency of the darkweb and in the process hit 1-3k in value but it will be targeted by governments at the same time due to the anonymity. Thoughts?

Governments (politicians, military, intelligence, black-ops) have as much use for privacy as anyone, so I suspect that they will want it for themselves and make it difficult for the average citizen if they do go after it.
sr. member
Activity: 700
Merit: 252
December 03, 2017, 08:30:40 AM
I have a theory. Monero will become the future currency of the darkweb and in the process hit 1-3k in value but it will be targeted by governments at the same time due to the anonymity. Thoughts?
member
Activity: 100
Merit: 11
December 03, 2017, 07:55:15 AM
if its banned by the US government before that time then I can't see it ever hitting anywhere near those heights.

Not gonna happen.  Be realistic.  Much, much more risk from bugs (code or protocol) and even endogenous governance issues (cf. Bitcoin core).  

Typically there is a sell off before the fork, and buying gets serious again once it is clear that the network has cleanly upgraded.  This is pretty predictable, but the market is too small and too skittery to really smooth it out yet, I think, so it should be actionable.  

Given the new total crypto marketcap, which is now much higher than last time I took a guess about this, it seems conceivable, if unlikely, that a subsequent leap in adoption on DNMs could push us over 1k quite quickly, so I would say the earliest date for 1k is May.  Any delay past 2019 would seem to require some sort of disaster - which, I opine, would be more likely to come from BTC, ETH or the global economy than from endogenous issues.  A central estimate would require actual work.



I am being VERY realistic and Monero of all cryptos could very easily be the target of a ban.

I do agree though with the total crypto marketcap ballooning out, 2018 things could move very very quickly in a short period of time.

1k By May though? would require a massive leap in DNM adoption being honest thats where most of the value is going to come from in my opinion.

But hey I like that prediction better than some of the other silly ones in here before (0.07 by end of september and $425 in December)
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