Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 471. (Read 3314316 times)

Moonriders here!

What's going on with monero?

Moonriders here!

What's going on with monero?

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy. 

I don't take such talk very seriously.  No judgement - hey, I am pseudonymous because I like to talk smack sometimes myself.

There are ways to put a fundamental value on these things, but any time you start discounting a future expectation the degrees of freedom proliferate, and you can't really marginalize without a proper measure, so it is always a matter if judgement under bounded rationality.  When critical facts are unavailable the picture gets very fuzzy very fast.  For example, how do you pick your holding horizon?  What is the time evolution of the expectation distribution, and what is it's form?  What manner of discounting is rational given other assumptions, and what are the distributions on those assumptions?  Are there discrete or binary scenarios indicating distinct models?  It gets very complicated very fast when you try to account for second- and third-order effects, model switching, etc. - spaghetti plate diagrams, mixing times that go through the roof, computations that can consume millennia of cpu time.  Ugh.  If you can make complementary arguments for parameter bounds, that can clarify things quite surprisingly, sudoku-style, but usually I just go with my first intuition, then try to pull apart the assumptions, and attack or support them with ratiocination, known or inferred facts, and common sense - the sum of which is quite fallible in comparison with MCMC, but at least provides a timely answer, for the most part.  Fisher's law is sound, and creates a moving attractor, but markets are inefficient, mass-market discounting praxis is mostly a mystery, and event-driven jumps remain often unpredictable.

That said, my Fisher estimate for post-MS XMR is 250 USD in April, and 400 a year later, but even if those numbers (probably conservative) are sound attractors, pricing is volatile on speculative runs, accumulation/distribution events, and news, so that I would expect every price between (roughly) 300 and 1000 to be seen at some point in the 4q18-1q19 period.  Dramatic changes in the USD political economy seem likely to drive it higher.

Calmest ATH break I've seen in Cryptoland. People seriously aren't giving a fuck.
No moon rockets, no frenzy. 

Investor doesnt care if a coin is
- premined by dev such as Eth and alot of other ico
- instamined either by accident or not such as Dash
- mined for year by community  such as Btc

what investor buy is the potential for future value, investor will buy Btc at 8000 if they believe it will reach higher same thing with other coin,  the amount of coin owned by dev or community or instamined or premined is irrelevant.

so pls stop the saltiness, toward others success,  Dash is rival not enemy...  you guys should be ashamed for these OT  post hating Dash for their success.

Dash is rival not enemy...  you guys should be ashamed for these OT  post hating Dash for their success.

I cannot understand why dash has any traction.  Can someone ELI5 for me?  It makes me concerned that I may be fundamentally misunderstanding, well, everything.

Karken was savage on twitter

Anyone who uses dash for privacy is either ignorant or stupid. This is only proof that most speculators won't research beyond the announcement page and are more than happy to play fool in a game of greater fool. Sooner or later there will be a reckoning and the market will wise up faster than dashtards can pile their bs.

Safest time to buy is when a new ATH becomes a confirmed breakout, but a fairly tight stop is advisable - one wide enough to test support at the old ATH, but tight enough to keep the downside manageable, recoverable.

It seems that South Korean like Monero very much. Almost 32 % of trading volume came from Bithumb exchange.

The demand of anynomous and privacy coins are high now. Dash and Monero are going up in value at the same time. Both coins got a very strong belief among the community members.

Dash has been successful in only one sense: Understanding that what the masses actually want is horseshit wrapped in a logo. The argument could just as easily be applied to many manifestations of mainstream culture: McDonalds, iPhone, Coke, Budweiser, Hollywood remakes, Disney, etc.

People generally love shit.

If there is wisdom to be extrapolated it is that Monero needs to be aesthetically as advanced as any other piece of crap out there, and the gift of privacy/fungibility can be injected to an otherwise ignorance audience regardless. Brand and image requires as much attention from the Monero intelligentsia as cryptography, and much like the establishment of the Monero logo (99 designs) it will most likely require pushing to visual design experts.

I say this, because I've been spending the last week or so redesigning the Monero subreddit which I intend to push to the community in the next couple of weeks. To be frank, the current subreddit looks kinda shitty, and it has sparked inspiration in me at least to review Monero's collective capacity to compete with mainstream brands. (It's do-able with the right mindset.)

Dash is winning the popularity contest. Ethereum is similar. If cryptocurrencies are speculative ponzis, whichever project can attract the greatest number of greater fools will be the short-term winner.

If cryptocurrencies are the future of sound money and censorship resistant value transfer, then the weighing machine should strongly favor Monero. Either way - Dash dies. It's a guaranteed failure by either criteria. The verdict is out on Bitcoin and Monero.