We aren't in a bubble. This is the price discovery phase for the 6th Generation of money (post plastic), true crypto has been recognised for it's disruptive power.
Do you really think that such a technology as I've described will stay long with a market cap 1/100th the size of metals? I don't.
Yes. I would add: Bubble is subjective. It's made of bubbles. Bubbles all the way down. When the panic comes, everyone will say, oh that was a bubble. In fact the panic is equally a mispricing, but the doomsayers will consider it their (fleeting) vindication. There is a well understood fundamental attractor for price (Fisher's law), but it is only partially observable in the market, and there are quasicyclical factors as well (technically, "quasiperiodic on time scales", some of which may be predictable given sufficient observation, and a low model error - but that is an awful lot of hard work).
Whenever the price moves there are winners and losers, support and resistance. The price will have to move a LOT in order to achieve fundamental value over the coming years. So there will be BIG winners and losers. So there will be a LOT of resistance and support. It will be painful for everyone. Too much drama for my taste, certainly. But, the holders will be the winners after the smoke clears. That's where I want to be sitting.
Suppose the "end point" (your investment horizon) has XMR denominating 1% of JUST the global black markets. (Although in reality it is more likely to be 10%, and another 2% of the "regulated" market besides.). You all know the numbers by now. In order to reach even 20kUSD it has to go through all the levels between here and there. That's a vast battlefield. It will not be crossed without much blood. Call me a coward but I do not want to bleed. I will mostly just sit on the side, and hold. Maybe pick a dead man's pocket or two when the action is far away, or the blood is deep in the streets.
The brute, incontestible fact is that Monero has a growing share of a growing sector (crypto). It is going to do fantastically well over the long haul. It has already done so, when the future was relatively dark. Now that it has enough cap to make technical development much easier to support, the future is brilliant, and one day the market will suddenly price that in. I want to be holding on that day. And indeed, to pass my (unknowable, inalienable) wealth to my heirs, if I can't find a better use for it in my lifetime. BTC on the other hand, has a declining share of that growing sector. It may do very well, but not so well as XMR.
Whenever someone tries to pry your fingers apart with FUD, remember the facts, remember the logic, remember that markets rise by climbing a "wall of worry", and hold. It is a scary rip tide, but it is a rising tide. Stay in the fracking boat!