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Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 750. (Read 3314330 times)

legendary
Activity: 2744
Merit: 1288
May 12, 2017, 08:32:05 AM
I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

There is just a lot of FUD going on of poloniex and ofcourse because of increased traffic on site they could no hire enough support and trained it on time.  Their response times prolonged greatly.

Because of this FUD i started puling my money out 3 days ago, first because i got scared, but latter realised,i keep way to much there, since i dont daytrade at all. I was to lazy and just keep my latest buys on Poloniex.  So sometimes even FUD is not so bad.


PS: I just withdrew some more BCY, an counterparty asset.
sr. member
Activity: 546
Merit: 250
May 12, 2017, 04:40:04 AM
I withdraw from poloneix, no problem at all.

And it looks like now its not a rally, but some coins goes up and down.
https://www.coingecko.com/en/price_charts/monero/usd seens to be stabalizing and having baseline
member
Activity: 81
Merit: 10
May 12, 2017, 04:26:43 AM
I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I just successfully withdrew about $650 worth of BTS a few minutes ago.

i withdrew btc and nem about 10 hours ago. no problems.
jr. member
Activity: 46
Merit: 1
May 11, 2017, 10:53:23 PM
I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.

I just successfully withdrew about $650 worth of BTS a few minutes ago.
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 11, 2017, 10:15:24 PM
I would be interested to know of anyone who has been able to withdraw any crypto from poloniex in the past 8 hours or so.
sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 252
May 11, 2017, 11:59:40 AM
Madisontrust.com is the web site of the custodian of record for Broad Financial.  I used them.  Constructing an operating agreement for the LLC is a bit...levered.  it is probably worth paying for advice on that, if you can.

If your crypto is in a Roth you can't use it, but you can borrow cash from the account, and pay yourself back with interest, potentially on a rather long-term plan. Again, the subtlet is suggest legal advice is warranted.  After age 59.5 there are no limits on withdrawals.  Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)


Thanks for the advice. Maybe I shall see you in the NYC meet up to thank you in person!
sr. member
Activity: 327
Merit: 252
May 11, 2017, 11:58:40 AM
I strongly advise owning your crypto in an after-tax retirement account, so that gains are tax-free.

Aminorex, can you advise how to do that? Specifically, if I have a Roth IRA at Fidelity, how do I use that to manage my Monero?

Many thanks.

Aminorex can probably give a much better answer to this since it sounds like he's already done it but in the meantime, here's what I found.

I've just started to look at this option for myself and it comes down to creating a Self Directed IRA (ROTH) with checkbook control.  I've seen it explained at https://www.broadfinancial.com/self-directed-ira/ where they set up an LLC explicitly to hold crypto and other assets and then your IRA invests in the LLC which you manage personally, allowing you to fully control your investments directly without having to pay someone fees for every transaction you want to make while waiting for days for it to actually happen.  It seems like a pretty good idea if you believe your investments will grow as much in the future as monero has in the past year or two. So, if your 10,000 Monero that you buy for $30 end up being $1200 each, your gain is completely tax free!

I mentioned Broad Financial but, I don't know how many others are out there that do the same thing maybe with better options, they were just the first firm that showed up in my search so don't take it as a recommendation.

Edit: If anybody has done this and can recommend a good company to work with, that would be  very helpful.

Thank you - I shall investigate further.
legendary
Activity: 1105
Merit: 1000
May 11, 2017, 11:42:22 AM
Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)

This is a good point. When XMR is one day worth $100, $500 or $1000 USD in the years to come. You gonna maybe want to let someone know how to access that juicy XMR wallet(s) just in case you die suddenly (car accident, heart attack etc).

Who to trust the keys to your wallet? I would prefer no one knows until I am actually dead.

Sorry, a bit off-topic I realised.

That is what estate lawyers are for. You can leave the keys to the wallet(s) to someone that do not get to see them until you are actually dead. The legal firm must be trustworthy and, beleive it or not, most are.

One thing you could do is:

1. Use https://xmr.llcoins.net/ to create an encrypted mnemonic seed.
2. Protect your seed as you normally do (safe place, multiple backups, cryptosteel, etc).
3. Give your passphrase to the lawyer (or give instructions on where it can be found), so they can provide this to your beneficiaries when you die.

That way, you control the mnemonic when you are alive, and nobody else has access to the actual seed but you.

edit:

4. Put luigi1111 in your will so that he gets some money when your family asks him how the heck to access the Monero.

Haha Cheesy

Zip of site on Github (plus signature) is finally updated with the more recent encryption method.
legendary
Activity: 1610
Merit: 1004
May 11, 2017, 08:45:44 AM
Madisontrust.com is the web site of the custodian of record for Broad Financial.  I used them.  Constructing an operating agreement for the LLC is a bit...levered.  it is probably worth paying for advice on that, if you can.

If your crypto is in a Roth you can't use it, but you can borrow cash from the account, and pay yourself back with interest, potentially on a rather long-term plan. Again, the subtlet is suggest legal advice is warranted.  After age 59.5 there are no limits on withdrawals.  Inheritance can be complicated, so consult a professional about that, too.  (Or at least give seed words to your inheritors or executors, so they can dominate any arguments.)


This sounds very interesting. It looks like it's not allowed to sell assets that you own directly to the IRA LLC. Otherwise you could just create one of these, sell your personal crypto to the LLC at the same price you bought it, then have zero capital gains taxes. Definitely seems good to set one up for future purchases though.
hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
May 11, 2017, 08:28:02 AM
Woke up this morning to see Bitcoin another $100 higher... new ATH yet again, $1850's (pushing to $2000?) Smiley

And Monero holding more-or-less strongly to "new floor" (?) about $30 Smiley

Seems like last few months XMR has been 'racheting up' about ten bucks at a time.

We were pretty stable holding around $7-$10 for a while there, last fall, then we got to $20 recently and stuck pretty strong there for about a month.

Now we just popped up quickly over $30 to (what was it?) about $34 or so?   And holding now to $30 as new floor...?

Seems to me that these "rachet ups" are coming faster however, not spending as much time at the ten-dollar increments maybe.  Anyone else see that or am I just overlaying patterns in my mind on data that don't really exist LOL
legendary
Activity: 2534
Merit: 1129
May 10, 2017, 06:25:45 PM
There hasn't been a serious altcoin bubble bursting since the rise of Monero the last year AFAIK. So we have no past data to learn from. I know I'm buying everything I can permit myself between 10-15 euros though in such an event.

This will only be the second serious bubble. It is already at a very late stage : there are many coins with dead blockchains trading huge volumes and price (exactly as before).

The burst of the first, in early 2014, was chaotic, and liquidity drained rapidly from every altcoin into BTC, the only 'safe haven' at the time... The best actively developed coins were hit hard, and recovered very slowly, the dead ones carried on down.

This time it will be instructive to see which of the really big coins are considered 'safe havens' , and which are not.


Hmm, interesting.  So that time when alts in a bubble popped, the value still remained mostly in crypto?  i.e. "drained" to BTC so that the dollar-value stayed mostly the same, if BTC went up about an equal amount as whatever was lost in the altcoin valuations?

Or did the dollar-value of all marketcap just disappear, i.e. crypto as a whole went DOWN at that time?

Just asking because IF this is the case, it seems to me that one would be reasonably well-protected from this situation if the overall crypto portfolio was balanced about 50% bitcoin and 50% "all other alts" (in whatever percentages you like best for those other alts, of course).

Or am I missing something here?  Hmm

I watched every twist and turn of price of virtually every coin at that time, from the rally to the peak, and down again. The total marketcap of BTC fell by around 50% in the first few months after the bust, but the alts got hit much worse, I guess an average of -80% wouldn't be far off. Remember also that BTC was 90% dominant at that time.

On that basis, nothing could protect you from loss in fiat terms, but BTC was the least bad option.

I expect it will be slightly different this time round : I believe its possible that one of the larger alts will be the least bad performer.
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
May 10, 2017, 04:45:45 PM
...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

Sure, the alts are driving the this general crypto rally/bubble, whatever you want to call it but you cant seriously think that if btc was down in double figures that we would be seeing $100 ETH, $20 ltc etc etc.

All the market share figures are showing is that the alts are outpacing btc in terms of % gains but the real world $ figures would be orders of magnitudes lower if btc wasn't so high. Imo thats undeniable.

Sanity + 1

But it can carry on being irrational for longer than you expect.  Just be prepared for when it stops?
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
May 10, 2017, 04:14:33 PM
...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

Sure, the alts are driving the this general crypto rally/bubble, whatever you want to call it but you cant seriously think that if btc was down in double figures that we would be seeing $100 ETH, $20 ltc etc etc.

All the market share figures are showing is that the alts are outpacing btc in terms of % gains but the real world $ figures would be orders of magnitudes lower if btc wasn't so high. Imo thats undeniable.
hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
May 10, 2017, 03:49:30 PM

You can take the flyer on usdt.


Tethers?  Ha... yeah... no... "unlimited supply, created by the dev team whenever they want, no blockchain? What could go wrong?"   Grin Cheesy Grin Cheesy

P.S. {Edit} For anyone unaware: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/tether-not-even-a-scam-1881199
legendary
Activity: 1596
Merit: 1030
Sine secretum non libertas
May 10, 2017, 03:40:41 PM
and the flow reverses there won't be any way to preserve the "purchasing power gains" that we are seeing now (on paper) except by flipping out of crypto and back into the fucking FedCoin dollars.

And I really don't want to do that... Sad
You can take the flyer on usdt.
hero member
Activity: 608
Merit: 509
May 10, 2017, 03:33:16 PM

...therefore it looks like an overall crypto market bubble...


Yeah that's what I was getting at, above, with this idea that any crypto project may be better than dollars if you were to look at it as if the dollar were a newly launched alt-coin (New!  "FedCoin"!!!  Unlimited supply, created by the dev team whenever they want, no blockchain? What could go wrong?)

Even shitcoins with major problems like Dash and ZCash may be able to 'hold value' in the future if it's coming from this worse "FedCoin" thing, LOL


If BTC drops badly and sentiment turns - all market caps will lose $ value.


Yeah that's the bad side, again what I was getting at above with the question about 50% Bitcoin & 50% Alts : if things go wrong and the flow reverses there won't be any way to preserve the "purchasing power gains" that we are seeing now (on paper) except by flipping out of crypto and back into the fucking FedCoin dollars.

And I really don't want to do that... Sad
legendary
Activity: 2604
Merit: 1748
May 10, 2017, 02:55:42 PM
>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

I think this may be true - but not with non-major moves in the price of BTC.  The alts seem to claw up soon after every BTC spike up - implying the orchestra keeps playing for alts while BTC rises or stays strong.  On WallObserver everyone keeps saying 'The end of alts will come with the ultimate rise of BTC' but this 'wipe out and return to BTC' is just NOT happening as they expect.

I don't disagree with ArcticMine but I think it's not one sided; BTC and alts are currently symbiotically linked - but therefore it looks like an overall crypto market bubble - the two parts of the market are ebbing and flowing and feeding each other.   

If BTC were to collapse steeply and go into a bear market, I don't think alts would keep up their current USD values at all - I don't see how they could when their 'cash out value' is basically linked to the worth (and expected worth) of BTC.

So your theory is correct in that the overall market is ultimately BTC-dependent, as is the value of alts - irrespective of the (agreed) differences and genuine alt growing partial autonomy from BTC this time.

If BTC does not (badly) crash but continues to rise, so will the alts and it could go far higher with all the new fuel entering the market.   

If BTC drops badly and sentiment turns - all market caps will lose $ value.



legendary
Activity: 3164
Merit: 1118
May 10, 2017, 11:41:16 AM
...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.

A large part of that is driven by ETH and XRP though (and to a lesser extent XEM and STR), where the majority of available supply is known or suspected to be controlled by a small number of folks. The rise in these coins seems more like a coordinated pump than money actually fleeing BTC imo. To be sure BTC dominance is eroding as more coins find users and speculators, but I suspect this recent drop in the dominance index will correct strongly in fairly short order.

If you look at the all time BTC dominance over time here http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/ you can see that each time there has been a sharp drop it's followed by some correction back up over the following weeks/months. The drop this time was especially steep, but I think the correction will be as well (especially if BTC itself starts to push above and beyond $2k USD).
legendary
Activity: 2282
Merit: 1050
Monero Core Team
May 10, 2017, 11:00:35 AM
...
Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally

Actually this crypto rally is driven by alts and not XBT. XBT market dominance is plunging http://coinmarketcap.com/charts/#btc-percentage This is very different from the past.
hero member
Activity: 798
Merit: 1000
May 10, 2017, 09:38:09 AM
>$100 USD does not sound that crazy for XMR anymore.

I remember fantasising that Monero may get to $10 one day, my fantasy was destroyed by reality, I'm going to move that outrageous dream to $400

Dreamers gotta dream

Why stop there. Though I find it difficult to rationalise a scenario where any of the current alts are worth their $values without this btc rally
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