Most people know the GUI is coming. I can only see this drop being due to bitcoin going up, people panicking and thinking that they can buy XMR later as the GUI is coming in 1-2 weeks.
In my case I will be buying some in this turmoil
The perception that the GUI will make the price go higher is only true in the short and long term pictures.
Initial spike makes sense, but what really matters is the longer term adoption that allows monero's price to grow.
In the medium term, who knows what will happen.
And also who knows how much of the "GUI" has been priced in to the price already since it is common knowledge ahead of time much like bitcoin block halving is known ahead of time.
Yes, it is as you said. Here is my speculation:
- Short term: Release of GUI will spike the price, not sure by how much but my guess is to 12-14$ or a bit above ATH which will be followed by a correction to around 11$.
I believe the spike will occur because I think lots of people have been waiting for the GUI, entry barrier lowered (When I first found monero, I did not want to deal with the CLI and it put me off big time) and people seeing that Monero is still in active development with great devs which will increase trust on the project.
The DNM adoption will probably increase by a lot as well since a GUI+RingCT.... there's not much reason on using BTC over XMR. They will most likely want to feel secure in their transactions and protect their privacy.
- Medium term: I think it will be a slow adoption rate with some upspikes along the way (RingCT in January, KOVRI development, rich people buying XMR) for a year or so. More and more people will find out that Monero is not a scam but the real deal. It is very difficult to see what will happen medium term but I personally remain quite optimistic!
