Topic: [XMR] Monero Speculation - page 973. (Read 3314350 times)

I'm good for the bet. I'm just not sure you'll pay me if you lose My word is good, I will pay you 100XMR if AB isn't online due to an exit scam, LE raid, etc, 6 months from now. Say April 22nd 2017.. And you owe me 100XMR if it is still operating on April 22nd 2017. Just for fun.. Hopefully the price will go parabolic and we both forget the bet ;P

Wow. Damn. You are completely right. Growth in transaction demand would be a mostly liner function indeed and even if the increase in transaction capacity does not follow moore's law it would be some form of compounding function. Perhaps it would be significantly more modest than moore's law but any compounding function will over take any liner function given enough time. It is only a question of when. And I think we can reasonably postulate that it will be a value less than a particular value, i.e. probably not 100 years, because we do have historical data that we can examine for relevant trends and project forward while allowing generous margin for error.

Yes, but it gets better. In the above scenario the blockchain would continue to grow at a linear rate, but there is no requirement for Moore's law to stop. So one would have an exponentially falling cost with a linea growth in blockchain size. This is what happened with credit / debit / payment cards. There was fall in the cost of "keeping the ledger" by many orders of magnitude between the tabulating machines of the 1940's and the mainframe computers of the 1970's. The cost of keeping the ledger kept falling even after market saturation.

The beauty of the Monero approach to the blocksize / scaling issue is that the market actually ends up setting the size of the blocks and the price of the blocks in response to the actual real cost of keeping the ledger. This is because the cost in terms of Monero of each block is actually set by the emission. So the market will end up setting the size of the blocks in terms of MB (or GB, TB etc) and cost of the blocks in terms of the purchasing power of a fixed amount, the tail emission, of XMR.

Edit: The above is accomplished without a pre determined blocksize limit (Bitcoin and Bitcoin type crypto currencies) or a fixed cost per MB (Ethereum and similar fixed fee models). In both of the Bitcoin or Ethereum cases changing the blocksize or the fees requires a hard fork.

Always reload the page before you buy/sell on Polo.  /pro tip

Shit, 0.01015000 24 hour low.

My buy was just below that.

Hm well lets do a little math. For the sake of simplicity lets say monero transactions are the same size as bitcoin transactions. And that bitcoins 1mb blocks are what are necissary to keep sifficient decentralization at this time. Lets scale it at moores law over 20 years. In 20 years that is 13 doublings. Lets say half the people on earth use monero for day to day transactions. Lets say the average person makes about 5 transactions per day.

We would need (3.5billion*5/86400) ~200,000 transactions per second. Bitcoin does about 7tx/s. 13 doublings would put it at ~60,000tx/s. I mean it's in the same realm. Throw 2 more doublings in there and you would be > 200,000. IF moors law holds. Sooo maybe. Maybe it scales well enough in 20 years without some scaling breakthrough.

I mentioned Open Bazar out of decentralized markets just because it is the  only name that is familiar to me.

I am sure there are many important attributes that make one dark market successful. But i think that this part is really important and it will show on long term.
Decentralized markets > Multi signature markets > Centralized markets

The problem with that bet is he would actually be wagering that the authorities don't use blockchain analysis on the BTC to find AB and and shut it down.

So you suggest a bet and than you chicken out? 

He isnt the only one ,i am still adding to my XMR stack but its pointless to argue with the tards like NRG and all his alt accounts ........let them keep droping cheap XMR and il keep picking it up .........

I'll happily wager this if you're keen? No need for escrow person.. I'd feel bad taking your money actually fuck it

Alpha and Dream are probably the biggest right now, by a long shot. They operate in the same way.

I don't think people sell drugs on Open Bazar..  It's discouraged I think.

Yikes, that's the truth right there. They should just legalize/decriminalize and regulate most of that stuff, like ah Portugal is it? The country that legalized pretty much everything with great results.

Still, it doesn't matter a great deal because funds don't stay on the site long these days. Money goes in and immediately gets spent, if it's a medium/high value item between repeat transactors, there's a good chance there's no Escrow anymore so the seller gets the coins before even shipping. This is how the bulk of transactions now occur. It isn't a huge problem but more of an inconvenience when they do decide to shut and run.

I spend some time today to learn more about dark markets and found this:  https://psychonautwiki.org/wiki/comparison_of_darknet_markets

So there are 3 kinds of markets.
Centralized like Dream Market
Multi signature markets like Alpha Bay
Decentralized markets like Open Bazar

Will centralized markets actually want to have untraceable currencies?


Also from first sight i think only Decentralized markets have future. So nor Alpha Bay or Dream Market. But i really have no ideas how they work really.

Monero is more like a 2.x or even 3.0 crypto-currency rather than a 2.0 crypto-currency. Cryptonote / Bytecoin should be considered the 2.0 crypto-currency here. Some of the key technical differences are:

1) Monero introduced a tail emission which makes Cryptonote / Bytecoin adaptive blocksize limit actually viable. This is a radical departure not only from Bitcoin with its fixed maximum number of coins but also from Bytecoin that also has a fixed maximum number of coins. Yes I recognize the that the tail emission was previously introduced in Dogecoin making Dogecoin a 1.x or even an, orthogonal to Cryptonote / Bytecoin, 2.0 coin.
2) Monero introduced in the last fork RingCT. It is in the code already and will be activated in the next fork. This is a fundamental departure from the base Cryptonote implementation that apart form enabling Ring Confidential Transactions also enables RingCT mixing of multi signature transactions.


20 years is not an eternity in software engineering and much less in business models; however it is an eternity in hardware engineering. It is this critical difference between the lack of change in business models and the drastic change in hardware engineering that explains why Diner's Club and American Express are not the leaders in credit / debit / payment card payments today. Diner's Club's business model was based upon the technology of the late 1940's namely punched cards, tabulating machines and telegraph lines. By the early 1970's the widespread replacement of the tabulating machine with the mainframe computer, while still keeping the punched card and telegraph lines, had already made the Diner's Club business model obsolete. VISA (Chargex, BankAmericard and Barclaycard) and MasterCard were already taking over the market.

The adaptive blocksize combined with the tail emission is what will make the Monero business model still relevant should the real cost of "keeping the ledger" fall by several orders of magnitude due to changes in hardware, networking etc. In this scenario Bitcoin could very well end up being the Dinrer's Club of crypto-currency while Monero could be the VISA crypto-currency. Instead of simply dismissing fiat banking and credit / debit / payment cards it is important to learn from them the lessons of history. Those who ignore history are bound to repeat it.

Edit: Database optimizations and pruning are at best a linear improvement in the size of the blockchain. The real exponential issue is the exponential growth in the market during the initial stages. The latter will likely be addressed in the case of Monero by improvements in hardware networking, etc leading to a drastic drop in the real cost of "keeping the ledger".

Just to add something to this DNM discussion: Do you really think, that if some of this markets would decide to add XMR as payment option, they would announce it now or first load and buy some coins?
It is delusional to think that long term those markets can exist without XMR. I think other will follow, probably some of them already load their bags with XMR now it has bottomed out.

We can do it. But not about 31 days. I said 6 month. 100 XMR are fine for me, but we can do more if you want.  I like that type of bets

"It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). T"

"DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. "

I guess that isn't a surprise, since they were likely always planning to steal the house money. Maybe they even opened dozens of fake vendor accounts offering amazing deals in DASH, just to make it easier to steal. I don't think they got away with much however did they? Not in DASH anyway because as i recall, it wasn't used at all pretty much mate. I tend to remember these things.

It is a shitty move, but I guess "exit scam" does kind of beat jail for these dudes, so you have a point there. Still, AB could have exit scammed so much by now a long long time ago - they have built trust, they likely won't disappear with everyones coin.. They might close shop one day, but unless something major changes they are the type who'd give back the money.
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Your information is not fundamental. AB is in a critial time frame. That's why i come up with the comparision of NucleusMarket



Introducing fake vendors is for sure a smart idea by you. Could be so in the end. But I doubt because nucleus was too long active with DASH support and after 2 weeks too much customers wouldn't complain about scams. Mhm, but maybe they placed some price killers to the end that as many people as possible pay there. But anyway, the naked number of acceptance was better there. But I think you are the first one here who got my point. I just consider the quite common exit scam as a factor. If AB is still there after 6 month you truly deserve the 100 XMR

Do you want to bet on this?

"It is 100% safe that AB will somewhen disappear (by no later than 6 month). T"

Put your money where your mouth is, we each send 100XRM (or whatever) to a trusted 3rd party escrow, winner gets all.

You are betting AB "disappears" in 31 days, let's say. I am betting it will still be open, ha ha ha.

"DASH was ~45% accepted in Nucleus Market. "

I guess that isn't a surprise, since they were likely always planning to steal the house money. Maybe they even opened dozens of fake vendor accounts offering amazing deals in DASH, just to make it easier to steal. I don't think they got away with much however did they? Not in DASH anyway because as i recall, it wasn't used at all pretty much mate. I tend to remember these things.

It is a shitty move, but I guess "exit scam" does kind of beat jail for these dudes, so you have a point there. Still, AB could have exit scammed so much by now a long long time ago - they have built trust, they likely won't disappear with everyones coin.. They might close shop one day, but unless something major changes they are the type who'd give back the money.

And remember, they can actually mine some small amounts of Monero with there cpu fairly easily, where-as it's pretty much impossible to mine BTC unless you have some high end equipment.  So, if they started mining now with the expectation of the price rising, they may have enough to buy a bunch of stuff in the not too distant future!

Way more than just 'funny'... profitable as hell, too. LOL

I'd expect IF it was ever confirmed that CryptoNote/Monero is *REALLY* also Satoshi's work, and hence truly "Bitcoin 2.0" then THAT -- all by itself -- would probably be enough to cause the entire crypto-world to shift over from BTC to XMR almost overnight.

Yes it's prolly gonna happen "organically" anyway, over a longer time period... but imagine the impact if Satoshi himself re-emerged and just said via a signed authenticated message, "Oh, hey guys... yeah it's me and hey by the way? I did CryptoNote as "2.0" too... go check out Monero, I think you'll like it"