Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 12. (Read 70064 times)

Less economics than speculation, but...

I am calling a bottom on Monero (BTC/XMR rate).

- I already predicted in a certain speculation group about 9 days ago that the bottom would be Sunday, Aug 17.

- Now I am not sure if it will be yesterday or tomorrow, since there is a compelling case for tomorrow also: in 2014-8-19 it will be 37 days from the last bottom, which also was 37 days from the previous one. The lowest prices are aligned at 175005 sat, 231500 sat, and (so far) 290000 sat. The difference between the first ones is 56495 sat and the last ones 58500 sat. There seems to be a cosmic tendency towards symmetry here, so a dip slightly below 290000 may happen tomorrow, but if so, it must be before the market participants start bidding the price up.

- During the dip to sub-3, only 14k moneros have so far been transacted sub-3 (Poloniex). Nobody seems to have much urge of selling them so cheap.

- Of course I know the market dynamics that are causing Monero (which fundamentally is a beneficiary of Bitcoin's troubles) to be double-hammered (in USD/BTC and BTC/XMR both tanking). I just believe that it is over and if not, then it might make sense to buy, if your position is so small that it is possible with the meager depth offered.

So did we finally broke the downtrend? Monero seems to be remarkably stable over the last few days, while almost every other crypto is tanking.

Using bogus assumptions, gross simplification, and fallacious reasoning i can turn your numbers into an estimate of when the bottom arrives:

2.787 mm float

May volume : 5027
June volume: 8669
July volume: 5982
August volume: 1222
21900 btc. est vwap 0051, 4.294mm xmr volume

The last 3 top to bottom volume: sum  16691 weighted .0051
 5432 (from 8 to 1,75)      1.113mm  .00488
 5178 (from 10 to 2,3)        .842mm  .00615
 6081 (from 5,8 to today) 1.382mm .00440
3.337 mm distributing
4.294 - 3.337 = 0.957mm accummulating
3.337 - 0.957 = 2.384mm net sold
2.787 - 2.384 = 0.403mm of all xmr untraded
1.382mm/31d = .045mm/d distribution rate→9 days supply remaining

so somewhere between 0 and 9 days of distribution are possible.  I say 0 as I would be shocked if strong hands did not already hold 400k xmr. I think the bottom is now behind us.

Time to load up the truck.

..numbers...

...
I think it's probably possible scenario. But we should take into account that LTC was quite artificially pumped by few concerned influential persons. LTC is loosing its momentum as well as some other quite strong alts. Monero in opposite is getting more and more attention. So it's easy to assume that probably some of the same figures will try to make use of Monero to achieve similar goals and will catalyze its internal ignition with much stronger long time potential based on its real benefits.

Thank you for your data mining. That pattern jibes with what I've seen in the gold part of the stock market: when gold's well down the bull track, the major producers go up, the juniors go up a lot, and the few exploration-level penny stocks that capture the punters' excitement explode.

Same on the downside, too. '11-'12 saw the majors getting whacked, the juniors getting whomped, and all-out carnage in the exploration-penny subsector.

I'm not kidding about the last. The pennies were hit so hard, the Venture Stock Exchange had to officially suspend a rule that prohibits secondary offerings by its listees whose stock price is below five cents. Yes, five cents.

Had the Venture board not done so, a lot of viable exploration micros would have had to hire bankruptcy lawyers. I'm quite serious about this.  

Has anyone attempted to estimate how many coins have been dumped (vs. mined) since distribution began?

Which begs the questions: How will XMR/XBT perform in the next XBT/USD boom when compared to the performance of LTC/XBT during the last XBT/USD boom in November 2013? Is using past LTC/XBT performance as a possible indicator of future XMR/XBT performance here possible or even relevant?

the comparison is marketcaps. ltc has 6.5 times the number of coins now.

My assertion:  there are more low-brows than not.  

A privacy-enabled crypto will displace bitcoin.

Litecoin & Monero are similar in that they both took a shitcoin idea (LTC- Tenebrix\XMR- Bytecoin), optimized the code and marketed a little better with a fair mining launch. LTC was "innovative" and new and has been a success for the past couple years and I think rpietila is on the right track with thinking that XMR can potentially fill that gap in the years to come

Seems very optimistic. But surely LTC has not offering nothing new, now just another altcoin. And XMR clearly has new stuff in the cryptos market. For me is a problem that the first CryptoNight coin had such an horrible launch (Bytecoin).

LTC
 4.85*(1-0.011)^192
=0.58

Monero
 1.72*(1+0.007)^192
=6.56
 

Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.

Currently:

LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.

XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.


- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.

- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.

- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.

- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).

- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.

- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.

Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.


LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.

After making the calculations, it seems that it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only 2015-2-22.

Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.

I smell a bet here....

have to think about it - if I only use xmr it is quite a win win

edit: maybe we can do it - give me 2-3 days. I do not have ltc but a few xmr. I am also an uberbull regarding xmr but I think this estimation is too optimistic