[XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 15.

rpietila

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Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 02:32:01 PM

The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before. The same is true of BTC. If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.

This is exactly so.

Let's be realistic in that we are only about 8000 monerists. But let's be clever that we can still develop the economy Wink

aminorex

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The only part that was relevant to economics got ignored:

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist.

This may seem obvious to others, but I hadn't realized it so clearly before. The same is true of BTC. If you really want to build the coin, you have to bill in Monero.

saddambitcoin

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Quote from: r0ach on August 04, 2014, 11:11:09 AM

Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 10:55:01 AM

Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

haha, I wonder if "that guy" that's all in on Monero with leverage actually exists.

could be someone leveraged in BTC and bought XMR with the BTC.

if anything, Monero is making me buy more BTC these days (with fiat) because i am overweight in XMR. i am tempted to buy more but i will never sell XMR at these prices.

rpietila

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Quote from: statdude on August 04, 2014, 11:53:14 AM

So, price is low, even factoring in for 10-20% botnets with lower marginal cost.

What's the fuss about botnets?

Economically they matter if and only if XMR is providing them a significantly better return than any other venture.

Is it really so?

If not, the gain is not attributable to XMR but is inherent to the botnet.

statdude

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Quote from: aminorex on August 03, 2014, 07:33:41 PM

Quote from: statdude on August 03, 2014, 03:45:48 PM

Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine.

Only true for amortized kit. With diff growing 1.7% daily I assume that about half of the kit is new r290x cards, about $50k worth daily. Gotta be paid for. Takes about 4 months minimum to do that.

As we just mentioned in the Trollbox...

Current breakeven for new GPU miners is 45+ months.

So, price is low, even factoring in for 10-20% botnets with lower marginal cost.

r0ach

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Quote from: aminorex on August 04, 2014, 10:55:01 AM

Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

haha, I wonder if "that guy" that's all in on Monero with leverage actually exists.

aminorex

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As long as my credit is good, I am a buyer long past the point of despair. When I start to feel the fear and depression, I cheer myself up by buying more. I take some amphetamine and a shot of whiskey, if that's what it takes.

Until people have obligations which can only be discharged in monero, there are no forced buyers, and volatility extremes will persist. Just about the only thing that can give you a permanent loss is selling - especially forced sales from leverage.

rpietila

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Quote from: shitaifan2013 on August 04, 2014, 05:34:39 AM

Quote from: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 04:44:00 AM

Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today Undecided

yeah, cheap coins right now

atm 0.00371 is hodling, but sell side is at an ath while buy side looks like an atl or close to that. fun times ahead!

Boredom reigns, the market just cannot handle stable price. Either it goes up, or it goes down. And both moves go parabolic in the end. If we break 0.0035 today, then the parabolic downside move (capitulation) is what is happening, and the likely reaction to such is that we go up next, towards the atvwa in 0.00426.

If 0.0035 is not broken, then the downtrend is still in force, but the channel is something like 0.0035-0.0043 anyway (or maybe 0.00345-0.0042 since it is constantly sloping down).

There is also the 0.00365 level, which could mark the 2nd Fib retracement from the July highs, and going back up from this level would indicate that the uptrend is holding, despite a very long retracement.

Anyway, since this is an Economics, and not a TA thread, what matters is how many coins you have, not so much at what price you bought them. Since the long-term XMR price has been relatively stable and distributed around the avg at 0.00426, buying at 10-20% discount is probably not a bad deal at all. Going overextended in an altcoin, (or Bitcoin, or anything) is not a wise strategy. Selling is warranted at this price only if you are overextended and cannot take it.

shitaifan2013

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monero

Quote from: Yololintian on August 04, 2014, 04:44:00 AM

Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today Undecided

yeah, cheap coins right now

atm 0.00371 is hodling, but sell side is at an ath while buy side looks like an atl or close to that. fun times ahead!

Yololintian

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Those walls on poloniex are really taking a hit today Undecided

From Above

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monero to the stars and the milkway

~CfA~

aminorex

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Quote from: statdude on August 03, 2014, 03:45:48 PM

Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine.

Only true for amortized kit. With diff growing 1.7% daily I assume that about half of the kit is new r290x cards, about $50k worth daily. Gotta be paid for. Takes about 4 months minimum to do that.

dewdeded

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Quote from: digicoin on August 03, 2014, 02:01:20 PM

Is there any plan to promote XMR to darknet.

Forcing Darknet adoption, requires implementation of Multi-Sig-Escrow into Monero.

(Major) Dark Markets won't introduce/accept any coin without Multi-Sig-Escrow, as they all use MS-Escrow solutions for customer fund protection, against hacking, scamming, busts by LE, ...

It's not widely discussed on forums (for obv reasons) or advertised as important project goal, but I think its consensus in the XMR community, that XMR will be "Dark Market"-compatible (safe, easy handling/escrow/payment, trusted, ...).
So XMR will participate in the upcoming battle of the existing anon coins, to become the leading, dominant Dark Market coin.

To answer your question, when Monero (with all the needed features & ecosystem around) is ready and tested, in maybe 12 months. There will be an solid attempt to get XMR accepted and implemented at the leading major 3 till 4 Dark Markets (including informing DarkMarket community about XMR, ...), in the hope of becoming the leading DarkNet trading coin.

statdude

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Fact is, Monero is currently profitable to mine. Very profitable (IF your power is 10 cents or under)
That will end in 6 weeks with current trends.

But that leaves 6 weeks of strong buying pressure to hold the price above .00003.

We will see. I'm holding, personally.

binaryFate

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Still wild and free

Quote from: Yololintian on August 03, 2014, 03:37:32 PM

Lots of selling on poloniex today. I'm wondering, how many monero are mined each day?

Look at the white table at the top of this page, third column. About ~21K/day currently.

Yololintian

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Lots of selling on poloniex today. I'm wondering, how many monero are mined each day?

digicoin

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I do believe that XMR price is driven by real demand, not speculators, in the medium term (12 months). Is there any plan to promote XMR to darknet. Some carders I talk accept Litecoin or Bitcoin only

rpietila

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Moderator comment: The idea of this thread is that I could express my findings of Monero economics to interested readers, free of empty talk. So I will delete the offtopic comments if needed.

smooth

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Quote from: Wexlike on August 01, 2014, 10:18:15 AM

Just an interesting fact that a few people might have forgotten

Daily new coin generation for litecoin:
28800

Daily new coin generation for monero:
21916

Monero has more sustainable value than Litecoin in my opinion.

rpietila

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With Monero, because of its high inflation relative to existing # of coins, the market is quick to decide what is sustainable and what is not. Hence a very stable price that's oscillated only inside 1 order of magnitude, and centered around 0.00426, which is the price even as we speak.

Topic: [XMR] rpietila Monero Economics thread - page 15. (Read 70088 times)