Just wanted to show you guys some math about what are the dynamics when XMR overtakes LTC as the second marketcap coin. As usual, the post is many points and they contain math but that's what I do.
Currently:
LTC's supply 31.1M, price $4.85, mktcap with current # of coins $151M.
XMR's supply 2.8M, price $1.72, mktcap with current # of coins $4.8M.
- Using 3 methods of calculating XMR internal growth rate (difference between estd number of users - calculated in both cases with 2 methods), price attractor (aminorex) and growth of the subscriptions of missives, the growth currently seems to be 2.2-2.5% per day.
- This growth is long-term unsustainable because it would lead to 30 million users in a year, which does not seem possible in cryptospace given BTC's slow progress and the fact that others are behind.
- So we must make a much toned-down assumption that the growth is only 1.2% per day during the time until LTC is conquered. Even this would lead to 1 million users in one year so albeit less than the current rate, it is still long-term unachievable so far.
- LTC price is continuously dropping, and this trend is expected to continue at the rate of -1.1% per day as it has been since December. The dropping price does not really let so many people exit LTC totally, so we expect that it retains the userbase of 100,000 (this may be quite off - I don't have much data to research the subject that does not interest me).
- XMR inflation must be taken into account. In the near term, it is going from 0.8% per day to 0.4%. We use the average, 0.6%.
- There is a coefficient related to Metcalfe law, which means basically that when the coin grows bigger, the average value stored
per user grows bigger also. This leads to the observation that price grows faster than userbase. In BTC, the effect is seemingly small, 0.1% per day, so let's add it here also.
Result: XMR is raking internal growth at 1.2%, minus inflation -0.6%, plus network effects 0.1%, total +0.7% per diem.
LTC is losing -1.1% per diem. Difference is 1.8%-points.
LTC starts with a head start of 31 times bigger market cap.
After making the calculations, it seems that
it takes 192 days for XMR to overtake LTC. Yes, much, in a way, but it is only
2015-2-22.
Furthermore, above we were actually comparing prices, and not marketcaps. XMR marketcap would actually be higher because of its higher inflation during this time. That would be a bit extra work and likely tilt the result to January.
I smell a bet here.... 
