Topic: Yet another analyst :) - page 27. (Read 269579 times)

This seems an appropriate followup to my prediction.

Bitcoins need to be converted to fiat for real world economics.

I guess now a lot of fiat is going into semiconductor fabs for next generation of ASICs.

Fiat leaving Bitcoin. The situation in other exchanges is worse. Its a falling knife.

Two candles closed below BB in a row. Bear trend starting and accelerating.

When they lose money on their investment, they have a tendency to strongly believe that it was a bad investment. I have great hope for Bitcoin, I think it's really a revolutionary concept....but I'm still laughing at the guy who bought my coins at 180$ each. This dude is screwed though, he bought something that was overvalued and is stuck with it.

It's not hard to understand. There is some economic laws that exist, one of them is the phenomenon of an economic bubble. You guys pumped up a bubble, it crashed, the market got destroyed, confidence was affected and money was lost. The market has to recover from that, it's simple.

You are correct. And this has been a long term bull market since 2009.

I agree only in part with Brightanarchist. I also said "we are entering a multi-month (mid term) bear market" since April, 11th. Bitcoin will down. Thats what you get after a so obvious speculative bubble. I also agree on the general approach, "buy when everybody is crying and sell when everybody is cheering". Pretty basic stuff. Best time to buy BTC in 2011 was indeed after "The Rise and Fall of Bitcoin" Wired article. But this time much more things are happening, both bad (the feds seizing accounts is much worse than some hacks) and good (positive media exposure, VC's money, etc.).  Plus, I disagree on the following:

1) Brightanarchist, you are looking at this like it's a stock. And BTC is not a stock. His implications are much deeper than those of the commodities you are used to trade on markets. Its growth potential is orders of magnitude bigger than the assets we trade on other markets.

2) you expect a bear market worse than we had in 2011 (bottom was 1/16 compared to the top, November), as you say we will see the bottom in 2-3 years. No way. This is no 2011. IMO the bottom is around $50, and we already explored it. We may very well explore it again, but we won't go much deeper.

Again, BTC has deep implications. More people is understanding it. They fall in love with it. It will go viral sooner than you expect. Each cycle will ignite faster and will go much higher than you expect.

They may know it and truly believe it, but if there is no further money coming in from new investors, or they are not prepared to put more of their own money in there is only one way for prices to go. And when prices drop far enough and things don't play out quickly enough people start questioning their judgement ... slowly their self belief is eroded until they capitulate. Then it starts all over again ...
That, and exploitation of that by big players, is what drives markets

ok, that makes sense. But I guess part of my point is, is it not too late to go back to that mentality? Now the cats out the bag, people have invested in e.g. ASICMINER etc... people do view BTC as an investment. Maybe what needs to happen according to your statement is that people need to view BTC as a bad investment? Which inversely is the time it should be a good investment... A lot of people know that though, so how can people truly allow themselves to believe it's a bad investment when they know it to be good?!

Long term is years, not months.

plus it actually has lots of advantageous use as a payment option as opposed to fiat or any other share. its a useful thing to humans and it will bounce back up in the right direction - IMHO.

doubt its gonna keep going down too much longer. . . its still a strong bull market on the long term

true

When btc was $2, almost no-one was referring to it as an "investment". The investment talk occurs at market highs, not at lows (when, ironically, it actually would be a good investment).

I'm not going to pretend I know much about markets, but how can people stop viewing bitcoin as an investment when there are BTC denominated shares in mining companies and the like? or are you only referring to bitcoin itself, and the need for a complete lack of confidence in it as an investment to enable it to bottom out? or have I misunderstood something?

Reposting from another thread:

I think it's going to take over a year (or more) before it bottoms... So I'm in no rush

You're going to need a lot of popcorn as I have a feeling it's going to take some time.

Im waiting for this from 10 april and i have a lot of popcorn

It begins....