All of the above, the conditions needed to falsify the prediction, the price movements under different scenarios, actually the meandering part is what I would hope to happen:the price would be stable enough for the business to develop and high enough to not be easily manipulated, I am not as eager to retire as many others here.
Allow me to add my BTC 0.02 from a fundamental perspective:
I think what will happen (in a large scale) is what always happens in short term scale: shoot up, correct down to about 60% of the move, then stabilize yet above that low at whatever fiboncacci says is a nice value between 60% and 100% of original move. This would currently (if this was the top) mean well above $100. Maybe $130.
I do not think this is the top at all, tough. Reason:
people are still flocking in like migratory birds. The bulk of the population still hasn't been tapped, they're standing on the sidelines waiting for things to cool off, which they will. Then they will buy, fuelling another mid-/short-term hop up. This will continue until all birds have returned to homeland for the time being. Then they will settle down, take a shit and start to eat berries and fruit. There is no indication this is already the case. Bitcoin spring has just started to cast the first rays of sun on the starved wildlife.
Will that top (for the next years) be 225, 450, 2789 or 9999? I don't know... I'm tending to think either 450 or 2789 makes the most sense.
