Yet another analyst - page 15. | Bitcointalksearch.org

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

The Fear & Greed index is finally registering "greed" for the first time in a long time. Bitfinex longs are also up almost 18% over the last week. As a contrarian, this supports my feeling that we're nearing a local top.

Quote from: GuyFromBarcelona on January 31, 2020, 05:12:44 AM

I also wait a pullback in the 10k area. The question is how big do you think will be. I think it could be just a small one and going fast to 10500-10600 or a moderate one to 9k-9,2k or 8,8k at much. There are a fucking lot of buying orders at 9,2 and 9, and in case going lower which I doubt, 8,8k is very strong again.

An strong pullback to like 8k or so seems very unlikely to me.

$8K would just be a 50% pullback from here. Very normal in the early stages of a bull market. Look at the corrections in June-August 2016, January 2017, March 2017. These were deep 62%+ retracements of the previous wave. And that was in the throws of a bull market, so it wouldn't be out of the ordinary.

I think the low $8,000s where the 20-week MA is may end up being a great target zone. This is one scenario I'm preparing for:

Quote from: exstasie on January 30, 2020, 04:51:24 PM

A 50-62% retracement would be typical, although it doesn't need to go that deep.

This is just one idea. You may be right. The pullback may just go sideways and we may get no lower than the upper $8,000s.

It's just too early to say; we need to see how the price action unfolds. If we see strong impulsive downside off the top, then a deep zig-zag shaped pullback to the lower $8,000s or upper $7,000s becomes more likely.

GuyFromBarcelona

newbie

Activity: 25

Merit: 4

Quote from: exstasie on January 30, 2020, 04:15:51 PM

Our Wave 5 is developing nicely. Quickly recovered wicks like this indicate lots of panic buying and very strong bullish momentum:

https://i.imgur.com/ekdraqK.png

I do want to stress some caution here, though. Like David, I am expecting a pullback off the $10K+ area. I suspect bears will attempt a selloff from below the October 2019 pivot ($10,540 Coinbase or $10,350 Bitstamp) since it's such an important technical level.

https://i.imgur.com/lutU0sF.png

We've already met all minimum expectations for this wave, so it's time to start thinking about profit taking.

Although this wave could further subdivide (like that crazy (v) of 3 that went from $7,667 to $9,188) I am conservatively planning to close longs in the $10K area. This does not mean you should necessarily enter shorts. Wink

Just a profit taking level.

I also wait a pullback in the 10k area. The question is how big do you think will be. I think it could be just a small one and going fast to 10500-10600 or a moderate one to 9k-9,2k or 8,8k at much. There are a fucking lot of buying orders at 9,2 and 9, and in case going lower which I doubt, 8,8k is very strong again.

An strong pullback to like 8k or so seems very unlikely to me.

And for me an strong one would be a good thing because I just receive some money I can invest and could make a better entry. But I don't think I will be able to buy lower than 9075, where I currently have the order ready. In fact I think I should maybe put it higher.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Our Wave 5 is developing nicely. Quickly recovered wicks like this indicate lots of panic buying and very strong bullish momentum:

I do want to stress some caution here, though. Like David, I am expecting a pullback off the $10K+ area. I suspect bears will attempt a selloff from below the October 2019 pivot ($10,540 Coinbase or $10,350 Bitstamp) since it's such an important technical level.

We've already met all minimum expectations for this wave, so it's time to start thinking about profit taking.

Although this wave could further subdivide (like that crazy (v) of 3 that went from $7,667 to $9,188) I am conservatively planning to close longs in the $10K area. This does not mean you should necessarily enter shorts. Wink

Just a profit taking level.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Buyers are looking really strong. All stair stepping, no pullbacks allowed so far. The 200-day MA was broken with a pretty authoritative candle close, a major long term victory for bulls:

You can also see a confirmed three white soldiers pattern, which is a very bullish candlestick formation. More on that:

Quote

Three white soldiers is a bullish candlestick pattern that is used to predict the reversal of the current downtrend in a pricing chart. The pattern consists of three consecutive long-bodied candlesticks that open within the previous candle's real body and a close that exceeds the previous candle's high.

The three white soldiers candlestick pattern suggests a strong change in market sentiment in terms of the stock, commodity or pair making up the price action on the chart. When a candle is closing with small or no shadows, it suggests that the bulls have managed to keep the price at the top of the range for the session. Basically, the bulls take over the rally all session and close near the high of the day for three consecutive sessions.

A typical example:

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Another test of the 200-day MA! Almost time to break above it for good? I think so:

See how the market wicked below the downtrend line but strongly recovered? This is a textbook example of how "resistance becomes support":

Fellow analyst dragonvslinux points out a similar bullish dynamic based on volume support in his thread: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/chart-vpvr-part-2-volume-point-of-control-8188-now-turned-support-5221059

It really looks like Wave 5 is now commencing. Here's what a typical impulse might look like, with final targets in the $9,900-$10,350 range:

Bitcoin may be anything but typical, but I still have a hard time believing we can break through the $10K area without a significant pullback.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Nice bullish engulfing on the daily chart! We broke above this downtrend line and 20-MA resistance:

This overlap into the previous range shows the market is not in a new impulsive downtrend. It also supports my belief that we are in a temporary sideways consolidation.

I'm not totally convinced this Wave 4 is complete yet (there could be more sideways chop or a tag of the 0.382 before any notable move up) but the short term price action looks promising for bullish continuation past last week's high:

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Updated primary count:

I don't like the internal (lower degree) count, but I think the overall wave proportions really support this idea. The deep pullback in Wave 2 and the > 1.618 extension in Wave 3 definitely looks like impulsive behavior to me. This is the general idea:

The 20-day MA doesn't seem to be providing support. I consider bears to be in control until the market breaks back above ~$8,670, the top of that failure candle two days ago. Looking at daily Chande levels and considering the overall structure, I would expect a few more days of consolidation in this general area.

We prefer to hold $8,000+ and ideally at/above the 0.382 to maintain good impulsive channel form. A sustained drop back into that yellow channel will suggest we are actually in a larger correction, in which case I offer xxxx123abcxxxx's alternative:

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

I'm about ready to chuck that local EW count in the trash. It was always a bit too ambitious, aiming for the 2.618 extension. I have an alternative in mind which I'll post sometime after the daily close.

Quote from: JL0 on January 22, 2020, 06:06:49 PM

Many have become bearish and are already talking about 5K-6K. What do you think ? Is the bottom in or not ?

I believe the bottom is already in. Here's a look at where I think we are in the larger cycle:

Quote from: exstasie on January 17, 2020, 05:56:27 PM

Quote from: Wexlike on January 23, 2020, 08:33:59 AM

I don't want to go back again to that doomed channel...

Me neither. I figured we might go back to test the upper channel line as support, but was hoping we could keep stair stepping up instead, as that would be more reliable bull market behavior.

We don't want to fall back into the channel for long, that's for sure. That would indicate failure to break the downtrend. A wick on the weekly chart or even one candle close below the channel top might be okay, but beyond that..... Lips sealed

Quote from: ft73 on January 23, 2020, 02:29:42 PM

Well, MA20/W is running at about 8270$.
It's also middle of weekly BB.

Let's see.

Yes, we have the 20-week MA, 20-day MA, and broken channel top all in this same area. The market may find support here for that reason.

ft73

hero member

Activity: 564

Merit: 508

Well, MA20/W is running at about 8270$.
It's also middle of weekly BB.

Let's see.

Wexlike

legendary

Activity: 1473

Merit: 1086

Quote from: exstasie on January 23, 2020, 05:49:42 AM

Based on Tim West's TAM model, the daily just made a downward range expansion candle. A spring back above the daily high (~$8,670) would indicate a bullish reversal and would be a reasonable long entry.

I want to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before saying much else.

I don't want to go back again to that doomed channel...

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: exstasie on January 22, 2020, 05:26:41 PM

Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:

Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.

Well, the $8,600s faltered. It didn't take long for the market to make new lows after that. Undecided

If the daily wicks up and closes > $8,463 then my bullish count is still alive. Closing in the $8,300s or lower will kill it for good. We've got 13 hours until the candle closes.

It's possible the market confirms the broken long term downtrend channel and/or 20-day MA as support:

Based on Tim West's TAM model, the daily just made a downward range expansion candle. A spring back above the daily high (~$8,670) would indicate a bullish reversal and would be a reasonable long entry.

I want to wait and see what happens over the next 24 hours before saying much else.

JL0

full member

Activity: 817

Merit: 158

Bitcoin the Digital Gold

Quote from: exstasie on January 22, 2020, 05:26:41 PM

Chop city continues. Roll Eyes

We have a sign of strength, a potential double bottom printed on the daily chart off $8,465. The rally to $8,775 looks impulsive which is a good sign for bulls. Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:

Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.

I hope so. Many have become bearish and are already talking about 5K-6K. What do you think ? Is the bottom in or not ?

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Chop city continues. Roll Eyes

We have a sign of strength, a potential double bottom printed on the daily chart off $8,465. The rally to $8,775 looks impulsive which is a good sign for bulls. Returning back to the previous 4-day mode in the mid-$8,600s is normal, but it's pretty crucial this area holds as support now and we resume an upward slope:

Otherwise it'll be a decent sign that the market doesn't want to move up.

El duderino_

legendary

Activity: 2688

Merit: 13334

BTC + Crossfit, living life.

^
Thx for the nice updates, wanna merit but max = 50 in 30 days .... Undecided

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Annoying price action. My buddy's characterization might be best: "WTF is this shit?" Cheesy

Classical TA would probably consider this a variant of bear flag, some kind of bearish consolidation. Trend-sideways-continuation is the expected progression.

On the other hand, it's taking so long to drop (and OBV is looking healthy enough) that it begins to look like an accumulation range where bulls are absorbing supply and bears are not following through on the January 19th dump.

It's definitely not a bearish H&S formation and it doesn't look like a typical bear flag. It looks like a shakeout to me.

For now, I still maintain:

This dump doesn't look like it has legs.
Continuing to trade above $8,463 (Bitstamp) is bullish.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: buwaytress on January 20, 2020, 09:27:17 AM

That sustained stay above the 200MA though!

Can't wait! Breaking above the 200-day MA and then testing/holding it as support will be an epic reversal sign.

All in due time though. We saw what happens when the market breaks out too quickly. The October run to the $10,300s flew above the 200-day MA but since we never built up any support on the way up, the chart ended up an Eiffel Tower anyway. Traders call this phenomenon "too far, too fast."

This slow and steady stair stepping price action where bears sell every resistance and bulls buy every consolidation is much healthier.

I like to see things in terms of baby steps. As an example, for months bear analysts have been clinging to the 20-week MA (now hovering ~$8,300) as a bearish indicator. "As long as the market is below the 20MA, we're still in a downtrend." Well, the market just closed its first weekly candle above it! Another baby step complete!

Next, we set our sights on the 200-day.

buwaytress

legendary

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Merit: 3684

Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!

Quote from: exstasie on January 20, 2020, 01:46:59 AM

There's a more rational explanation. Longs were piling on for days heading into the last breakout. There were big expectations for a rally above the 200-day MA. When that rally never materialized, supply came back in and longs began to unwind. Then stops were triggered.

This is all normal price action, bouncing off expected resistance. The 200-day MA was obviously going to be sold. The question was/is whether it would be just a temporary, local top.

For the rational-minded like me (who have at best a weak grasp of economic logic and a keen sense of nonsense TA) 9k was always going to be the selloff point. Who among speculators would want to ignore a quick chance at 15% profits (from those who bought in below 8k)?

And the fact that this slip only went as far as 8.6 will be good news for all them profit takers since it only means another repeat of 9k is possible and not too far away.

That sustained stay above the 200MA though!

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: fabiorem on January 19, 2020, 09:59:41 AM

This abrupt failure is just a single whale shorting bitcoin and manipulating the price.

There's a more rational explanation. Longs were piling on for days heading into the last breakout. There were big expectations for a rally above the 200-day MA. When that rally never materialized, supply came back in and longs began to unwind. Then stops were triggered.

This is all normal price action, bouncing off expected resistance. The 200-day MA was obviously going to be sold. The question was/is whether it would be just a temporary, local top.

The vast majority of sell volume occurred below $8,600 so "the manipulators" (if they exist) will only make money if price actually downtrends from here. If bulls can hold onto this range and eventually return to the highs, the market will just have trapped more bears.

That's how whales get harpooned:

Quote from: exstasie on January 13, 2020, 05:42:15 AM

Yes, but the mistake people make is assuming whales are always successful when they try to push the market around like that. I've seen many whales attempt large spot dumps that were instantly swallowed by the market before a move up. Those whales lost a shitload of coins. Some of them likely ceased to be whales altogether because of it.

Consider the Bitstamp bear whale. He dumped 30,000 BTC at $300 when the rest of the market was trading ~$50 higher. The market bought all his BTC then rallied to $450. He returned in 2017 as a bull, signing messages to prove it. So he dumped everything at $300 and bought back during the 2017 bubble.

He's not the only whale to make mistakes like that. They are not infallible!

fabiorem

sr. member

Activity: 1400

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This abrupt failure is just a single whale shorting bitcoin and manipulating the price.

exstasie

legendary

Activity: 1806

Merit: 1521

Quote from: exstasie on January 18, 2020, 05:24:08 PM

Well, it's another bull pennant until proven otherwise. Not much else to say:

I'm still looking for a thrust above the 200-day MA which is currently at $9,056.

There's the expected thrust above the 200-day MA!

.....followed by an abrupt failure. This is the trouble with triangles. The thrust is powerful but often very short-lived:

We may have just seen the first extreme of a larger sideways consolidation. As long as we are trading above the January 8th high ($8,463 Bitstamp) then this count is still in play, which puts us in Wave (iv) of 3:

Quote from: exstasie on January 15, 2020, 07:18:45 PM

Topic: Yet another analyst - page 15. (Read 10498 times)