Topic: Yet another analyst - page 13. (Read 10498 times)

Whoa, hadn't noticed! Thanks man, I know you played a big role.

Update after the daily close. The market tagged major support levels: the 20-week MA and 50% Fib retracement of the December-February uptrend. Bears have tried multiple times to induce further selloffs but the 200-day MA continues to hold strong. These long wicks show strong buying pressure:



The daily hammer candlestick the market just printed is a strong reversal sign. An engulfing candle back above $9K will help confirm. An example of what I mean:



In the sentiment department, Bitfinex continues to shed longs, down 28% in the past 2 weeks. Meanwhile, longs were completely annihilated on Bitmex. Open interest has plummeted, along with funding rates. That makes for lots of latent demand once a bullish reversal becomes more obvious.

Tl;dr
Not officially out of the woods yet, but things are playing out more or less as expected and my bias is still bullish.

Congrats exstasie, you're Legendary.... Very much deserved imo, your work is very nice and always on a good manner, just good explained as how you see it and always good in responses to other members.

Cheers, hope this thread staying alive for a long time!!!

So looks like we got a neutral looking doji with a 60-40 bullish bias (longer candle wick at the bottom than the top*). Not quite the hammer or dragonfly, but still held the 200 Day MA.
*2.85% wick at the bottom to candle body, 1.85% at the top down to the body, making it around 60% bullish (2.85:1.85 ratio).



I'd still be ok with prices re-testing $8.5K, but looking at yesterdays candle close, I wouldn't be surprised to see lower $8K levels tested while we're down there.
I'm still not shying away from my $8.2-$8.8K ladder, especially since everyone longing above $9K has more or less been liquidated now.
Any extra thoughts you have from yesterdays candle close? Critical times are directly ahead of us!

Agreed. Kind of hoping price has another retest of the $8.5K in order to properly fill the CME gap at $8495 $8505 and re-test the 0.5 fibs (without the margin or error):



Either today quickly, which seems totally possible, or even tomorrow after closing above the 200 Day MA today would be fine for me.

Fingers crossed. I would love for the daily to close this way, as a big fat hammer candle above support:



This nice intraday recovery in ETHBTC is also exciting:



Plenty of time left in the daily session though, so let's not get too ahead of ourselves. More fear and pain in the $8,000s is still possible.

Good call. With price reaching $8,520 so far, this is $60 from the 20/21 Week MA and $45 from the 50 Week MA, as I also anticipated from the confluence of fib retracements:


Price has now come down to my personal target of the 0.5 fib retracement confluence from the swing & macro within a margin of error:



Closing back above the 200 Day MA today, with the long wick of a doji reversal / dragonfly candle would be enough bullish confirmation for me short term.



This means I can start feeling a lot more bullish about price action shorter term BTFD.

Weak hands continue to be squeezed. Longs are down another 7% on Bitfinex.

The market held the 200-day MA for the daily close. I know the intraday price action looks dire (currently in the $8,600s) but based on history, there's still a good chance we'll bounce hard off this area:



If the equities markets collapse, that could change things. For now I think both the S&P 500 and BTC are in short term bearish corrections.

If these local lows fail to hold, the next downside support level of note is the 20-week MA ~ $8,460.

What BTCUSD does here is obviously consequential for ALT/BTC price structures. If this EW count is correct, ETHBTC should be forming its Wave (iv) low soon:

I agree. It would however be a warning sign that we're in a bigger correction than I anticipated, and that I may need to switch preferred counts and take some risk off. For me it's also more about holding below than a single candle close. We could dance around the 200-day MA for a few days then spring back above it.


That's what I'm getting at. If we do go for the 20-week MA or the 62% retracement in the upper $7Ks, then I'd prefer it be quick.

I previously felt the same, but now I don't see falling below 200 Day MA as ultimately bearish*. As long as we don't spend too long below it that is. This is based on moving above it with the "China pump" a few months ago, even spending a dozen days above this price. Hence, the opposite happening doesn't concern me, we could spend a dozen days below this MA (with a wick down up to 17% to $7.4K for example), or a range of upto 10% down to $7.9K, and swiftly recover. For example, the inverse to the parabolic move upwards in October would look like this:



This would only be my worst case scenario with less probability, as the confluence of the $8.5K level is enormously strong. 50 Week MA (rising, bullish), 0.5 fib retracement levels of both swing and marco moves, vpvr support zone, futuers gap.Ultimately I'm still macro bullish (not seeing lower lows than $6.5K) until we break below $7.2K, where the 100 Week MA that has flattened out as the neutral 2 year running price.



*Another argument for the break of 200 Day not being ultimately bearish is that the "other 200 Day MA" is currently at $9163 on CME, that in my opinion has been a more relevant 200 Day than BTC's now. Also, we'd just be filling the gap as all the "gap fillers" believe we will do:

Update on the "cup and handle" idea:



Good news for bulls, longs are down 22% from the highs. We're dancing on the green 50-day MA. I'd say there is still room down to that orange 200-day MA.

It's very possible the market sweeps these lows, squeezing out more longs and trapping more shorts before the rally continues:



To maintain my bullish bias, I would prefer to see no daily closes below the 200-day MA.

Not much new to say. 4-hour OBV is in the shitter, and there's nothing bullish to say about momentum. The current short term uptrend since the 20th appears corrective, not impulsive.

It's obvious we're experiencing a short term bout of downward pressure. Like David, I think the most likely scenario is a dip towards the upper $8,000s or $9K area:



The grey squiggle is the "time correction" scenario laid out here.

Those are the two most likely scenarios over the next week: nondescript sideways, or a dip to the 50/200-day MA area. My overall bias based on the weekly/monthly charts is still strongly bullish.

I saw this post earlier and it raises an important issue regarding sentiment analysis:


I strongly agree with the idea that the crowd is usually wrong. Markets tend to follow the maximum pain theory: they go where they will inflict the most pain on traders.

But it's easy to misinterpret what the prevailing sentiment is, or what it means. When Bossian says "the herd says we will see a new ATH" I think he's wrong. I know traders who, like Masterluc, think we are still stuck in a mid-term bear trend and headed towards the 200-week MA. I know traders who, like sgbett, think we are headed for sub-$3K. I've recently seen people complaining the stock-to-flow model is failing as we approach the halving. With the Fear & Greed Index at 43 (Fear), it's obviously hard to say everyone is bullish.

Markets can become intensely exuberant too. Consider 2011, 2013, 2017. These were markets characterized by exponential gains, where everyone expected higher prices for months on end. So we know sentiment can get much more bullish than it currently is before reversing.

I'd say sentiment actually breaks down like this:

• Majority = Neutral or bearish (not expecting a bubble)
• Minority = Bullish (expecting a bubble that will top at $60K-$100K)
• Tiny Minority = Hyper bullish (expecting a 2011-like bubble)

If the herd is wrong, it's possible the next bubble will wildly surpass all expectations. See marcus_of_augustus's forecast to see what I mean.

It's hard to say exactly what "mainstream adoption" will do to price, but my impression is most people around here are setting their sights very low.

On 4hr bars it still is putting in a good fight and looks like its held on and is ready to rise from here.   On daily or weekly bars I think it confirms we are bearish but I really cant say I'm certain.   If we are outside and left a previous bullish trend, that swings it to negative imo.   At times BTC will float but it does come down, years of avid cartoon watching Wile e. coyote vs roadrunner has taught me well.

It's possible this will turn out to be a shallower "time correction." However, we just overlapped into the previous range and are sort of in "no man's land." Based on the magnitude of the dump, the bigger picture on the daily, and our proximity to established S/R, I think he's right to expect one of the "white" scenarios and the lower target zone: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.53874138

The buddy I mentioned earlier (who predicted the cup and handle) said this regarding sentiment:


He's right, it's a great setup for an exponential rise next month. We want to build up that skepticism/disbelief about the new bull market, and trap shorts. Flushing out weak bulls and shorts into strong hands near the 50/200-day MAs almost sounds too perfect, but it's very possible right now.

Yes David was right and he said if we fall below $9600 it'd be possible to se $8959. $9600 is holding now lets wait and see what will happen in the next few hours.

Brutal intraday dump! Looks like David was right with this forecast.



This count served us really well. We got some nice upside off the $9,400s. The proportions are untenable now though, and we need to discard it.

The 50-day and 200-day MA area (upper $8,000s) looks like an attractive buy area.

A buddy of mine thinks we're looking at a cup and handle pattern. He expects a pullback off this horizontal resistance, with support at the rising 200-day (orange) and 50-day (green) MAs:



Not exactly what I have in mind, but a realistic possibility. I know David is still considering a decline to the 200-day MA too.

There's that dip to the 20-day MA:



Tough to say if we've seen the local bottom yet. The 4-hour OBV is still in the shitter, but the price action is sort of bottom-y. From a TAM perspective, this local downtrend is also running out of time. I don't really see a cliff dive from here. Overall bullish bias still intact.

The chart is proceeding as expected. The dip came within $50 of the 20-day MA ($9,689) but I suspect we will drift a bit lower.



I don't love the proportions anymore though. They are beginning to push the limit. I may end up giving preference to a count like this, depending how strong the next wave up is:

Due to the bullish structure on the higher time frames, yes. The more important question is, when will we retest the 20-week MA?

Let's take a look at the 2019 uptrend and its relationship to that moving average:



I'm using the 140-day MA for better chart granularity, but it's ~ the same as the 20-week MA. See what happened between March and June last year? Waiting for the 20-week MA would have meant missing the entire uptrend, and then you'd be buying into a mid-term downtrend.

The daily time frame is probably more ideal for buy entries. Buying at or below the 20-day MA provided many profitable opportunities to ride last year's bull market.