Topic: Yet another analyst - page 10. (Read 10498 times)

What you say about this there?

Will be back in here shortly... had some very very busy RL days...

With today's big bullish engulfing candle, that triangle idea is looking promising now:



I'm a little wary given the ugliness in stock markets but price action takes precedence. A retest of $7K looks within reach now. Break $7K with authority and then low $8,000s are on the table. That's where I would cap my expectations. I would be amazed if the 200-day MA doesn't smack the market down into another weekly downtrend.

The stock market failed at the 20-day MA and 0.382 resistance zone:



Given the strong positive correlation with the stock market, it's not surprising BTC fell alongside it. We've now confirmed previous $6,500 support as resistance:



This situation is bearish unless bulls retake $6,500.

CarpeNoctom is seeing a bearish H&S pattern, and the target zone (lower $5,000s or upper $4,000s) lines up with mine. https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1245232217615466502/photo/1

I would pay close attention to what happens in the US stock market here. It is very tightly correlated with BTC right now. Stocks are at a potential inflection point at the 20-day MA, with bad coronavirus and unemployment news continuing to come out:


BTCUSD rallied with stocks and has now hit a major resistance zone. This may have been our OTE retrace before more downside, with targets in the low $5,000s or upper $4,000s:



It really depends what traditional markets do. We could also be building out a new sideways range like this:

That 4-hour breakout triggered and gave us a nice dump to $6K. Adam & Eve top it is:



The lower time frame downtrend looks impulsive to me. I see a local bottom here and wouldn't be surprised at a bull trap to the $6,500 area, but I expect continuation of the downtrend into the $5,000s:

Still no clear inflection point, but we have a possible head fake off the 4-hour upper Bollinger Band:



Head fakes often precede breakouts in the opposite direction.

Looking for a decisive candle close below $6,500 (or above $6,900) for a breakout. We may still be building out that Adam & Eve top on the daily chart. It's really difficult to say. The market is still in a chop zone. It may be waiting for a more decisive move in the stock markets.

Is this an Adam & Eve double top? http://thepatternsite.com/aedt.html

The potential is there, given the fading bullish momentum and the reaction to the 20-day MA:



New local highs above $6,968 (Bitfinex) would invalidate this idea.

How might this fit into the big picture? This is really speculative until we see a more obvious inflection point, but:



Congress reached a deal on the $2 trillion stimulus plan: https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-administration-senate-democrats-said-to-reach-stimulus-bill-deal-11585113371

Futures markets responded with a 3% gain and tested the last daily pivot high from last Friday. I honestly can't tell if this is the beginning of a considerable suckers rally in stocks (this would be bullish for BTCUSD) or a double top. I'm concerned the market already spent its momentum on yesterday's historic gains and we will now go back to ranging or testing the lows.

I may have framed my Bitmex emphasizing theory a bit too uni-causal, and likely my point was NOT very much about what had caused the rush down to $3,850, but instead that the $3,850 BTC price (talking bitstamp) seemed to have been a bit of an overkill of downward movement and unsustainable in any kind of meaningful way.

Accordingly, both you and I seem to tentatively conclude that it is likely NOT going to be easy to get BTC prices back down to $3,850 (even though not impossible), and likely neither of us really subscribe to any uni-causal kind of theory regarding why the BTC price went to those levels, yet in the end, each of us ends up assigning a certain kind of probability set regarding where we expect the price to go from here and how likely we expect it to go up, down or sideways.

Surely, I have increased my fiat allocation to the possibility of sub-$3,850 BTC prices in a kind of make myself feel better way, even though about two weeks ago I had assigned very low probabilities to the necessity to even make any kinds of additional preparations for sub-$3,850 levels...

Sure I was already somewhat prepared for shit hits the fan scenarios, but since the BTC price dropped so low and so fast, it largely used up a lot of my reserve fiat, so then I had to start considering, what if there is more down to come, and it is NOT like our current macro situation is actually resolved in any kind of unambiguous way, as I type this post.

Most likely, I am personally going to be fine even if my recent additional downward preparations end up being completely for naught, even though I feel a little better psychologically for having had made those additional down preparations.  It is also possible that in the future, I might find a way to recoupe some of my current extra down preparations in the event that they end up NOT being needed because some kind of opportunity might end up presenting itself in part because of my additional down preparations.

On the other hand, if BTC prices were to go shooting straight up to $20k (which seems unlikely but surely is not impossible) in spite of my recent additional down preparations, I might end up having 1% fewer bitcoins than I would have had if I had just stuck with my original and NOT employed the additional downward preparations. 

Having 1% less BTC in such a highly unlikely straight up from here scenario feels like a small price to pay for the amount of additional comfort that I feel for having had made such additional downward preparations.

I don't think it was Bitmex that caused the crash. The crash was caused by massively increasingly supply:


I definitely don't think reaching $3,850 is inevitable. My entire model assumes the bottom is already in. What I'm saying is, "markets don't move in straight lines." A 63% drop creates massive, massive resistance to any move up. I do believe we are headed back to $10K in the next several months but I also believe there will be significant pullbacks along the way.

Here is one guess based on price action in 2015:

Probably, we are NOT a long way apart in our assessment, even though your characterization seems to assign a bit more probability to the downside and sideways than mine, and mine seems to be more weighted towards the upside, and surely, I am NOT really arguing that anything has to even play out in a given timeframe, except for there is a bit of a design implication in bitcoin that ends up causing actual physical pressures upon the supply (new supply and existing supply) that takes place every 4 years, and sure in 2012 it only took a few months to experience upwards BTC price pressures after the halvening, but then arguably that upwards price pressure played out through the whole of 2013, and maybe was not even that different from 2016, except that in 2016, it seemed to take more than a year before the BTC price could not really be kept down any longer.

So, yeah, specific BTC price dynamics can play out in a variety of ways, including the fact that some macro factors or even internal issues within bitcoin can allow the BTC price to stay down for a longer period of time, and surely there can be some arguments, too, that the longer the BTC price is kept down beyond a kind of fair price level, the greater the upward explosion ends up playing out because of such seemingly non-sustainable price suppression. 

So, I am not exactly wedded to any specific time frame in which something has to happen, but I would give a decent amount of weight to bitcoin's design and the fact that there are going to be actual physical pressures based on such hard coded lessening of the new supply issuance rate that may or may not be sustainable if the price is pushed outside of the expected mean for too long of a period of time.. and sure of course, the mean could end up shifting down, but until there is enough solid evidence that the mean has shifted down, we cannot be assuming that it either has shifted down or that it will shift down.




Surely, this highlights a bit of our differing framing.  Sure, I might not subscribe to any kinds  of traditional measurements regarding what is a bear market versus a bull market, yet personally, I don't consider that the BTC market specifically to be bouncing back and forth from a bull market (let's say 2017) to a bear market (let's say 2018) to a bull market (lets say early 2019) and then back to a bear market (let's say late 2019), and yeah, you are NOT saying that either.. You are saying that we had never left the 2018 bear market, and I am saying that we did leave it, and we are merely experiencing various extended and deep corrections currently that have not taken us out of the bull market... not yet anyhow.





Probably, I don't like your word, "inevitably."  I doubt that we have to have down before up (or at least not necessarily a retesting of $3,850), even though I agree that getting an 81% bounce does create a lot of incentive for short term profit taking which surely could easily result in lower $5ks, but even that testing of support is not inevitable.. especially, if we might consider that the Bitmex pushing of the 3/12 drop may have been a bit more artificial than was really sustainable or even need to be testing $3,850 again.



Perhaps we are NOT too far apart on this assessment, and may be part of the reason that I bit the bullet today to 1) tweak my sell orders to be selling a bit more BTC and to 2a) both lessen the buy amounts and to 2b) cause the buy back spread to be greater (in other words having more cash to buy back lower, in the event that the BTC price goes lower than expected).  My tweaking was NOT really large, but it does make me feel a bit more comfortable because ultimately I am relatively convinced that preparing for a straight up price shooting scenario even though possible, is not really any kind of considerably probable event, especially when we already had in the ballpark of an 81% bounce from that $3,850 price, like you already mentioned. 

For me, I don't really ever bet on down, anyhow, but I just attempt to maintain a series of longs that I can tweak from time to time, and in this case, I tweaked my buy/sell orders in such a way that caused me to feel more comfortable in terms of having higher levels of cash in the event that larger than expected (from my perspective) corrections come.

El duderino_ was bringing this up too:


Something to keep an eye on, but we should also keep in mind BTC dropped something like 63% from its highs, way more than the stock market. There may be an element of mean reversion at play. Where BTC fell too far too fast and then snapped back, the stock market is still grinding out lows.

I just find it curious, BTC has pumped twice with stocks on Fed-related news recently, down to the minute charts.


I agree, but I also think those models allow for a flexible range regarding timing. Stock-to-flow doesn't imply BTC needs to see exponential gains pre-halving or directly after.

I think we are in still in the later stages of the post-2017 bear market. That doesn't necessarily imply lower lows like Masterluc and many others expect. I think it's a sideways bear market and that the main factor between BTC and the next bull market is time.


I don't think the market can drop 63% to new monthly lows and immediately spring back into a bull market. That just doesn't happen. Inevitably the market is going to test lower support levels and the resolve of holders. We've already seen an 81% bounce. We may see a spike up to R2 at the 20-day MA.

The short term is unpredictable (which is why short term trading requires well-placed stop losses) but in the mid-term I am confident we should avoid being greedy regarding expected gains. The weekly and monthly charts are in clear downtrends. Even if our long term bullish interpretations are correct, it should take some time for accumulators to retake control of the market.

Of course, I might be a bit off topic because I remain a longer term investor who does not really attempt to make short term bets, but frequently, I do like to consider where we are at in terms of considering whether I might need to tweak my buy/sell strategy a little bit, here or there.

So, sure, in the short-term bitcoin seems to be moved by news and have some short-term correlation with dominant factors, including a pretty BIG global phenomena that is currently unfolding before our very eyes.

Yet, for longer timelines, and I hardly would concede that bitcoin has been knocked out of its bull trend, merely because of short-term severe corrections that seems to have brought bitcoin below the various current BTC price prediction models of 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) s-curve exponential adoption based on networking and metcalfe principles. 

So, I guess what I am saying is that even if there might seem to be some ongoing short term attempts at tugging bitcoin downward based on macro uncertainties in getting the virus (and shut downs) under control, there is also the tugging up that want to put bitcoin back in line with the dominant and seemingly credible price prediction models.

I have had a kind of recent tendency, especially since May 2019-ish (when we seemed to have gotten back into the bull market), to stack my back and forth incrementalism swing trading in terms of bitcoin rather than dollars, so my idea/practice is that if the BTC price is seeming to be more likely to go up than down in the medium term (such as being in a bull market rather than a bear market), then I set my buy/sell orders in such a way that is inclined to stack profits in sats.  Of course, if I concede that we have entered into a bear rather than bull market, then I will be more accepting of stacking profits in dollars in order to prepare for more down.  I tend to not be very greedy in regards to these tweakings, it is just a practice of changing in relatively small amounts, rather than making BIG changes.

So, personally, in some recent days, I have been toying with whether I should tweak a bit more towards selling a bit more BTC when the price goes up and buying back less BTC when the price goes down in order to prepare for BIGGER possible price drops, even though I still have an overall inclination to believe that BTC's price models remain stronger than current macro happenings, and therefore, I am less inclined to believe that bitcoin is going to continue to correlate with dollar-based investments (such as stocks etc) in any kind of substantially meaningful way. 

Torn.. torn... should I tweak... should I tweak.. or just leave largely my orders as they are?  Those are the current questions/concerns bouncing around in my noggen.

Thought you might be interested in this chart as you've been making stock market comparisons. BTC/SP1 Monthly Chart.
This is the most bullish candle I've ever seen on a monthly chart in my life. The candle body is currently 70% up from the low of the wick, it's incredible.



Doesn't mean Bitcoin's going up against fiat, but closing around current "comparative price" range would suggest BTC outperforming S&P in coming months, imo.
Regardless, TA wise: Price found incredibly strong support from the 50 Month MA with the 21 Week MA now beginning to rise again, now seen since July 2019.
Bullish  

CME pre-market SPX futures dropped 4% on the open:



If the SPX opens here tomorrow (or lower) we will officially surpass the 1987 crash in magnitude, with a nearly 36% decline.

BTCUSD attempted to rally into the CME open but no surprise, it was abrubtly smacked down. The local top we just saw may have terminated wave ii of (C) of [ B ]:



Translation: more downside still expected, especially given the bearish state of world markets. Measured move = low $5,100s. Wicking near $5K is likely (we have pivots in that area from March 17-18) and lower is possible.

This count will be invalidated on a break above $6,420.

The Fed just announced unlimited QE: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/23/fed-announces-a-slew-of-new-programs-to-help-markets-including-open-ended-asset-purchases.html

And the market went nuts! I wonder if this is the start of a major relief rally. S&P 500 futures are up 7% in 30 minutes. BTC up 8% over the same period, just hit $6,350. Clearly there is some correlation with stocks right now as this Corona virus thing wears on.

This $500 candle is dangerous, but the downtrend since $7K is also now in question. My stops got run at that $6K hourly pivot. I'm on the sidelines and going back to bed. New alarms set, let's see how this chart looks in a few hours.

The market retraced to the 0.618 area at $6,470. The [c] of (B) looks like a failure. I think we can say with good probability the uptrend is over, and we have now formed a significant lower high.

This would be typical:



The Corona virus news continues to worsen, at least in the Western world. I'm not excited to see where CME pre-market futures open in a few hours. I suppose stocks and BTC will both decline into the last week of March, hopefully without too much more panic. I'm anticipating a significant relief rally in late March, early April as the prospects for a global recovery (hopefully) improve.

Well we got that sharp retracement:



Unfortunately it went all the way to the 0.5. That's our first warning that maybe we're no longer in an impulsive uptrend, and a bearish reversal already occurred. The market also didn't retain good channel form.

The uptrend from $5,657 does not look impulsive either, another warning the uptrend already terminated. This really doesn't look like a wave (v):



When I went to bed last night, I was feeling 60-40 bullish about trend continuation. Now I would say I'm 80-20 bearish. The 0.5-0.786 area outlined above is probably the ceiling before lower lows.

In the alternative case, if bulls can bust through that resistance area ($6,700s) with authority, then I would still look to R2 (low $7,000s) for a major bearish inflection point. It's been an awesome ride but shorts have already been punished hard (down 40% on Bitfinex) and I think the upside is limited. I believe the market wants to confirm last week's levels (lower $5,000s or maybe the $4,000s) as support before any sustainable move up.

Now that price has reacted to R1, I can share the EW count I've been operating off:



We're now looking for a dip to the $6K area, the 0.382 retracement. Since Wave (ii) was sideways, we should expect Wave (iv) to be sharp like a zig zag. I would like to see the 30-minute Elliott Wave Oscillator dip below the zero line to help confirm this interpretation:



My preferred count is another leg up to R2 ($7,350 area) which should be a significant mid-term top. Alternatively, we are already in Wave [ B ] and are headed back towards the 200-week MA.

Update on the triangle idea, looking good:



It's still premature to assign an EW count to this rally above $6K. I believe we are near the end of (iii) or the beginning (iv) in an impulse Wave C. That means based on the momentum I'm seeing, we can still expect more upside past this $6,441 local high.

As mentioned in the last post, the $6,850 area is a resistance zone. Let's call it R1. Our next resistance level, R2, would be the confluence of this failure candle and the 20-day MA in the $7,300s:



Bullish momentum still looks strong (no divergences) and volume seems to be confirming the short term uptrend. The 4-hour chart shows three white soldiers, which also suggests more upside to come after a brief pullback.

Watch for a reaction off R1. If we reach R2, it's a pretty clear sell. We are not going to the moon yet, gentlemen. Even in the most bullish of scenarios, the market will likely come back to test previous resistances in the $5K-$6K area.