Topic: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 256 blocks solved! - page 105. (Read 102344 times)

http://solo.ckpool.org
very niceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
With the power of 300th, I was able to open the block number752,868   it is completely real.
I never believed that I could open the block, but I did.

I've been flipping coins for years and still not had the joy of mining a block yet.

Gave up after a massive loss renting power and no win calculation on what I spent over a year on trying was around 22k.
Would of been better just not spending the coin and sitting on it rather than trying not to mention my own gear pointed for around a year+

I have given up on the hope of ever hitting a magical block I no longer keep any hashrate on the pool.

Looks like back to McDonalds for me.

absolutely correct

That is incorrect, shares are independent events, and none of the shares from the past or present can affect the shares of the future, not in any way or form, if you flip a coin statistically you will get 50% heads and 50% tails, but just because you got 100 consecutive heads it doesn't mean that 101 time your chances of getting tail will get better, it still is 50%. 

Thing is that it may be close but still the probability is not higher because in the past there was a relatively high share. Either a block is found or no block is found. So actually if you hit very low shares the probability will rise to hit a higher share and not vice versa.

How do you come to this conclusion? The overall rate is currently around 17 PH/s, so nothing spectacular.
The best share of 12,344,928,816,885 corresponds to 12.34 T, also nothing unusual. Unfortunately, less than half that would have been necessary to mine a block. But yes, a block hit can happen at any time, that much is clear.

Meanwhile,best share of the pool is amazing 12344928816885,14 digit jn length!Apparently soon some1 will hit a block

While there is nothing wrong with your explanation and all are valid points, context is key, when the statement you quote is read within its context, it provides the complete truth, not just half.


With "everything being equal" includes, no difficulty change, no aliens' invasion, and you mine into the current epoch, your chances of hitting a block with 50ph for 24 hours are exactly the same as 100ph for 12 hours.

From a calculation point of view, this may be true, but it is only half the truth. The most important and limiting factor is "time" and this is often neglected or completely ignored in the overall view. Thus the imagination is impaired and leads to blurred statements. The biggest limitation by far is our life time, which is limited. You probably won't be able to mine for longer than 60 years. Possible previous limitations would be serious changes in the Bitcoin protocol, or economic consequences that change the price/performance ratio, or even natural disasters or wars. There are countless possible limitations, but let's keep the best case scenario of our lifetime, because hopefully many decades will pass before this limitation arrives.

If one were to leave the above quoted sentence as it is, then one could think to mine with a CPU at 1 MKey/s in the long run. The CPU miner could hit a block in 4,822,698,348 years, yeah. But that doesn't matter, because before that all the limits mentioned above would be reached and you wouldn't live anymore. You will never be able to experience this block hit. You could also mine at 1 GH/s hashrate, that's not better either. It doesn't matter with which hashrate you mine, if you completely leave out the word "luck" in the overall consideration.

It is probably clear to everyone that the chances of hitting a block are immensely (!) greater for Antpool than for the home Solominer with 1 TH/s. When we talk about chances, the word luck has no place. Probabilities can be calculated mathematically, this is not rocket science and on each place on whole planet earth the result of such a calculation is the same. If someone wants to solve the puzzle, whether he is direct mining or solving a Bitcoin puzzle, then there are only two factors that matter: TIME and POWER (Hashrate in case when mining, or Keys/sec when brute-forcing). In both mining and Bitcoin puzzles, you try to be the fastest (TIME!). If you can't do that, you can't crack the block or the puzzle. This is the only reason why the chance also increases with increasing performance.

If the time would not matter, then yes, you could try to mine a block at 1 MKey/s on a CPU with a current difficulty of 36.95 T

Stuff like "luck" or "investment costs" have no place in such a consideration and have absolutely no bearing on the outcome. Everything is defined by time and power, including the probability/chance.

You are correct, it's usually better to rent less hashrate for longer periods, unless your rental would go into a new difficulty epoch and that could change everything, if the run starts in the next epoch which is likely going to be -10% below the current one, you will need to check the block finding pace and see if the average block time is below 10 mins, it means difficulty is likely going to spike, a 2% spike in difficulty is probably going to offset any money you saved in the rental unless you were buying a massive chunk of supply.

So really, it's not an easy pick, in some cases, going all in and renting the most you can for the shortest period is better, you can only make a calculated guess but are never guaranteed to take the right decision, which is probably why willi9974 doesn't want to decide on behalf of everyone, however, I think it's important to inform whoever is voting that the probability of finding is the same for 24 hours with 50ph and 12 hours with 100ph (with everything else being equal), when everyone understands that aspect, plus everything else mentioned in this post in regards to difficulty change, the group collectively will likely always vote for the "best".

Wish you all the best guys, by the way, what would be the lowest amount to join the run?

yes you are completely right. the more rented, the higher the price.
Therefore, the decision about the speed and runtime is a decision of the participants of the group and not my own directly.

Here is the discussion about the Mega Run --> https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/groupbuy-solo-mining-blockparty-2023-megarun-1-5423850

Best Regards
Willi

I will check out willis run. I've done a number of the smaller runs with willi but didn't participate in the last megarun. He always runs a very organized group.

I'm sorry I overlooked your message. I personally was leaning towards a slightly lower hash rate for a longer period. Maybe 100-150PH until the 2-2.5BTC are spent. I have done a number of rentals with Nicehash and find that when I grab too much of the hash rate, it tends to drive the overall rental rate up to keep up that speed. Last I checked, the fixed rentals are no longer available?

ok all Miner with hard balls jump into the Monster / MegaRun topic
We will rent 500 PHs or more

The topic is in the german local board, but it is also in english managed... so written mixed in german and english, but all important information are in DE and EN

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/groupbuy-solo-mining-blockparty-2023-megarun-1-5423850

Best regards
Willi

i'm in! just transferred my stake and will post in the thread right away

If you are interested in group based solo runs, you are welcome to join the BLOCK SOLVERS group



Stake is only 0.001 BTC, we rent hashpower 2-3 PH/s and send it to soloCK pool. The motto of this solo mining group is: participate cheaply and regularly with the hope of mining a block and collecting the reward.

All info can be found in the citb0in Solo-Mining Group - BLOCK SOLVERS thread. Join now, may the luck be with us 

I would also be interested, if you need another participant.

Depending on number of participants and potential buy in, I am very interested.

I think 3 or 4 maybe 5 are in.
So if someone interested here also, I make a new topic to talk about that.

@hiaxis, @verexi1513, are you in for a monster / mega run?

Best regards,
Willi

And do you have any takers yet?