Topic: [∞ YH] solo.ckpool.org 2% fee solo mining 256 blocks solved! - page 206. (Read 102489 times)

A 0.0055 play at nicehash could hit 1,2,3 even 4 blocks when played quickly at high hash rates

For instance I play 0.0055 btc at 50ph of hash for about 24 or 30 minutes.

so my shot at a single block is around

0.0055/6.25 or 1 in 1136 for that play

but with outstanding luck my shot at 2 blocks is 1136 x 1136 = 1,290,496 to 1.


and with god like luck my shot at 3 blocks is 1136 x 1136 x 1136= 1,466,003,456 to one.

Those numbers are at the start of the play.

As the rental dies out and no blocks are hit the odds worsen.

Nothing of what I said contradicts this, you are just using a different form of representation of probabltity, 1 in x chance every block is equal to 1/144 chance a day.


No, it's not the same, this can't be further from the truth.



This is also wrong, first of all, it's not guaranteed that a block is to be found every 10 mins it could take days, it can even take years, there is no law in the universe that forces a bitcoin block to be found in x amount of time, but then even if we were to agree to the 10 mins theory, it really doesn't matter, just because a block is guaranteed to be found it does not make your chances any better, also just because there is a possibility that nobody wins the lotto it doesn't make your chances any worse, the probability of any other event happening aside from you being lucky enough has absolutely ZERO impact on your own luck.

Think about it this way, imagine that nobody else but you is trying to solve the next Bitcoin block, does that increase/decrease your chances? the simple answer is 'No', and the same thing goes for the lotto, whether you are playing it alone or with a trillion other people/tickets your chances are ALWAYS the same.

It's a general misconception that many people think they are competing against other miners or other lotto players, no you are not, you are competing against your own luck and that's all about it, the lotto has an exception of the reward being divided between possible potential winners and that's a whole different scope.

https://solo.ckpool.org/users/146UJM5kgzLVUV23CXCf33KQKHckoX1gx3

Maybe I get lucky.

A Small play  0.0055 coins

Probability ...

1 in xxx chance for lotto is EVERY GAME played, not every week.

1 in xxx chance for BTC is EVERY BLOCK mined, not every day.

Mathematically, the probability is the same no matter which way you approach it. However, with BTC, the chances are (like Lotto) that the more hashrate you have (the more Games in Lotto), the larger the chance of winning simply due to the amount of different plays. It is still the same probability with each hash/games played, but the chances (ie - risk of loss) are different.

This is why any form of gambling (especially trading - which is a complex form of gambling) have their risk. The difference is, that with Lotto, a games may NOT win, whereas with BTC (or almost any other Crypto) a block WILL be hit at certain interval.

So a Lotto win is NEVER guaranteed regardless of it's probability, whereas a block to be hit is an ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY every 10minutes or thereabouts. It is just a matter of whether YOU hit the block. Lotto has no inbuilt certainty - EVER.

#crysx

I wish I could agree to that  , but unfortunately winning profitability isn't that simple, in his example, he showed how a 70GH gear has 1 in 14,000,000 chance a day, that chance of that very same miner per block would be 14,000,000*144 = 1 in 15,000,000,000, the chance per week would be 14,000,000 / 7= 1 in 2,000,000, the number of trails is irrelevant in this comparison IMO, it's a little bit more complicated than this, probability and statistics are as complicated as women are.

I would go a different calculation:
1 chance per ~10 min. or ~144 per day * 7 days = 1008 chances to win "~162500 €" at the moment
or in total 163800000 € and that has to be compared 

A great analysis but I have reasons to believe that it's a bit far from accurate, the 1 in 13m chance you have with the lotto is once every week, while the odds for hitting a block which you mentioned is based on a shot every day, so for this to be a bit more accurate you need to multiply the lotto ticket cost by 7, and then if we were to assume that the average lifespan for the miner is 2 years, then you will need to multiply that by 730, so if the ticket price is 2$, you will pay $1,460 to match the number of trials that a miner can have.

I am aware that there are other prize catogires of 3,4,5 matches but I think the prize is too small ot be considered, you also need to keep in mind that when you hit a bitcoin block you keep all the rewards and nobody can share them with you, where in the lotto, you are subject to share the prize with x amunt of people, on the othre hand, playing the lotto means you won't have to pay the power bill, no matiance, no cleaning no dead PSUs or a firmware glitch.

There are many more factors invovled to determine which would be econcmically better, I don't have the time, skills nor the desire to do that in-depth analysis (pehabs someone who does play the lotto and solo mine at the same time can do it) but I do tend to agree that perbaps and most likely playing the lotto is cheaper than solo mining.

With that being said, Solo mining is way more fun!!

I will write my first comment here. I've enjoyed reading this thread including a lot of its history and I've been completly silent but it made me wiser .

People most often get interested in cryptocurrencies when it gets a loud on this- so typically when the price is crazy pumped up. Some of them might think, why not mine, maybe I'll get lucky. And I can say it makes no sense .

My thought late autumn 2019 was the same (after reading a lot on forums). I wanted to buy one Antminer S9, with power of 14TH, and I've thought- maybe I'll get lucky. But quick calculation of expected energy bill - 140 EUR (a month) just for mining with probability of hitting a block after 70 years (on average) made me unsure about this

If I have done this, after 1,5y of mining I would end-up with electricity bills of 2500 EUR with no BTC at all. Solo chance says now it would take 207 years on average to hit a block with such hash rate (because difficulty still goes up, more hash power is put into the network). I don't want to imagine what chance I can expect in next year or two.

So I ended up with mining Monero just for fun, and one USB 2pac miner for bitcoin lottery in one PC. After 10 months of mining Monero with hash rate of about 15khash and a little extra Nicehash power (again just for fun , finally I've hit a block with a luck of about 250% (and that was not a day when I used Nicehash).

So now you can feel what kind of probability we are talking about.

The most known lottery in Poland: you cross 6 out of 49 numbers. 6 are drawn from pool.
The chance for hitting all 6 is 1:13 983 816
You can win 2,5mln EUR

Bitcoin, chance of hitting a block a day with 70 Gigahash (I mine for fun with) is 1:14 993 148
You can win about 180k EUR

Actually buying a lottery ticket every day to win 2,5mln EUR is wiser.

That's just small summary for all newbies thinking of mining with CPU

PS. thank you CK solo pool is here.
At least I could go through this, do some exercises, and read a lot of history to understand what the Bitcoin is really about (now).

If you just want to lottery mine you may want to look at sidehack's USB miners, you would be getting GH not MH with just one stick and you could use a super cheap and low power raspberry pi running headless to control it - much less power than running a laptop.  Also you could get one of his usb hubs and run a bunch of them if you wanted.

https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/announcing-gekkosciences-new-usb-stick-miner-the-aptly-named-newpac-5053711

hmm, forgot about the vardiff this pool uses so you could have accepted shares but then it'll be up to -ck to check what's going on and why your hashrate is not showng up.

If you view it like that than ok, just wanted to warn you.

Thx for quick response. GUIMiner says 536 shares were accepted so I would assume my stats would be visible?

Laptop is not so stressed according to task manager and it's just warm so I probably could optimise it a bit. Anyway, I treat it as a lottery that costs next to nothing so the chance of winning is next to nothing.

Your hash is so very very very very very (etc  ) low you haven't submitted a share yet that meets the minimum required and probably won't for a long time so there are no stats to show. You should ask yourself if it's worth it to stress your laptop in that way for an almost non existent chance of hitting a block. If you go to solochance.com and input 100 Mh/s than you're expected to find a block in 29,235,169 years  and that's only the average, it could be ten times longer and it doesn''t account for increasing difficulty.

Hi,
I'm trying my luck on my laptop which runs anyway when I work from home. I'm running the below:
poclbm.exe 3KB75QPHs58ZHxqc16ZCfHxfeoWxBLUzTx.0:@solo.ckpool.org:4334

via GUIMiner

It looks like it's hashing alright with incredible 100 Mhash/s (I know it's next to nothing)

For some reason the pool stats are not available for me:
https://solo.ckpool.org/users/3KB75QPHs58ZHxqc16ZCfHxfeoWxBLUzTx

Would anyone know the reason why?

What were you expecting? with 8ph for 24 hours (which you didn't even get fully) your chances were 1 in 140, it would be surprising if you hit a block but very normal and expected if you didn't, after all, you were going in for about 10% of the block reward which is about $27,000, sadly, it didn't work out.

not the best 300 dollars ive ever spent....

Yes, for some reason, one of the rentals, was fluctuating all the time, underperforming.
And the second one got cancelled.

So I decided to split those orders, into more smaller ones.
And was watching them yesterday before going to sleep, and all looked good.
But yet again, I see that it fluctuated anyway..

Im really not sure, why some orders are rock solid on NiceHash, and the others are so unstable.
And why does NiceHash even cancel orders, also makes me curious.

Ok, so I've recreated only the two 4ph orders, lets hope it will perform well.

Im leaving for a camping-hiking trip with my lads, but there is no internet...
ive asked my wife to check the website for new blocks, if we find it, she will call me, and I will return as fast, as a bullet.
Before the block matures.
If not, then ill only be back in days.

And yeah, Im sorry guys, I usually babysit those position, but i didn't exactly planned it this time.

This doesn't seem right

{
 "hashrate1m": "568T",
 "hashrate5m": "3.13P",
 "hashrate1hr": "7.15P",
 "hashrate1d": "3.59P",
 "hashrate7d": "667T",
 "lastshare": 1610172160,
 "workers": 0,
 "shares": 98431000000,
 "bestshare": 80356373899.33391,
 "bestever": 80356373899,
 "worker": [
  {
   "workername": "36hJi3UPXt1xCG6SEwUcpn9tcoxYMYkD87",
   "hashrate1m": "568T",
   "hashrate5m": "3.13P",
   "hashrate1hr": "7.15P",
   "hashrate1d": "3.59P",
   "hashrate7d": "667T",
   "lastshare": 1610172160,
   "shares": 98431000000,
   "bestshare": 80356373899.33391,
   "bestever": 80356373899
  }
 ]
}

I noticed that too when I was making my own fixed order. Weird since the address is being mined too and I don't think NH ever not shows orders.

In reality, all that matter is the number of hashes, so 8ph in 24 hours or 16ph in 12 hours or 32ph in 6 hours will all have the same odds, the only advantage of going with less hashrate for an extended period of time is demand affect on the nicehash market.

You should also know that nicehash renting is more of a pay-per-hash rather than pay-per-x time unit, so the fact that your hashrate has been less than 8ph for a couple of hours means that you have more balance to run beyond 24 hours (assuming prices stay constant and ignoring pool connectivity issues).

With the being said, the images of the orders show (fixed orders) which means that the hashrate should not fluctuate by much, when you use fixed order on Nicehash you essentially outbidding everyone else and you should always get the hashrate you asked for but I don't know what's going on with this particular case of yours.

I've been looking at our miner's stats for a few hours now and they are less than satisfactory and not consistent.
Maybe we should upgrade to more power via refund instead of consistently insisting on 24 hour runtime?