Topic: : - page 22. (Read 70881 times)
It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see.
True, there is no natural correlation.
It is completely the result of the systematic strategy of a trading contingent that has been in effect since about June 16, 2011. The data doesn't lie...
The data doesn't lie because you will always find correlation between what ever you want to find a correlation for, for a shorter period of time. Once again you will not find a clear correlation between bitcoins and DJI for longer period of time, that we in finance call, a "real" correlation. Don't even bother following it. Bitcoins have a fundamental ground that have other parameters that you should look for. One clear correlation is cost of mining and price, start looking there.
It appears that a contingent of traders has decided that $/BTC should track the DJI or some indicator very similar to DJI. For instance, this is something that could be driving a bot trading strategy, and such a bot will have to periodically re-balance in order to continue with the strategy without going illiquid.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
Based on this observation I would expect $/BTC to seek an equilibrium approaching a scaled multiple of DJI. To arrive at that multiple I would use price averages from about June 16, 2011 to present, as this seems to be the point at which $/BTC started tracking pretty closely with the DJI. But I am pretty certain that this strategy has a shelf-life, as attempting to hold a peg like that is ultimately unsustainable.
You don't know what you are talking about, there is no correlation between DJI and Bitcoins, you are just seeing what you want to see.
With 7200 new coins generated every day with a matching trade volume, we can only hope miners are patient. While prices rising, miners would be right to hold, but their confidence is heavily tested on the way down. Casual day traders are afraid of the market and recent chaos is hardly attractive to first time buyers. It's up to extant holders to buy more at these bargain prices.
So much for "difficulty follows price... with a lag" 
It does, although it may not be the way you wish. As long as it is profitable to mine the difficulty will continue to increase, even if the price is falling.
So much for "difficulty follows price... with a lag"
It does, although it may not be the way you wish. As long as it is profitable to mine the difficulty will continue to increase, even if the price is falling. 
This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!
I can't compete with bots.
It is fun to learn new skills.
True. However, I don't even have a clue where to begin. Any suggestions?
Well, I have been eyeballing Aricie lately, and will probably be giving them a go once they have had a chance to shake things out a bit.
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/aricie-announcing-a-new-trading-bots-platform-32484
Interesting, thanks. Though, I have to say, with all the stuff going on with exchanges and cloud wallets, I'm seriously considering pulling all my BTCs into my own securely backed up wallets.
This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!
I can't compete with bots.
It is fun to learn new skills.
True. However, I don't even have a clue where to begin. Any suggestions?
This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!
I can't compete with bots.
This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
Don't know how to run a bot? Be a bot!
Hmm. Interesting. Perhaps I should cancel my sell order and just hold on to my BTC for the time being.
I don't know. I have done some more testing and right now it looks like it could be this way for a while. I have been holding, but now I am thinking that it could actually be more productive to join the bots and systematically take advantage of the small daily fluctuations.
This sucks for people who don't know how to run a bot...like me.
Case in point:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyzvztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Even with large(ish) volume spikes the bots just snap the price right back to where it was before.
The bots rule...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyzvztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Even with large(ish) volume spikes the bots just snap the price right back to where it was before.
The bots rule...
Sorry to deliver FUD but at the moment its not clear that the spike to $14.8999 was genuine, because that happened during the attempted upgrade (correct me if I'm wrong). So also not clear if the volume today is accurate. Waiting on a second update from support.mtgox.com "*** Initial announcement - more details will be made available within the next hours. ***"
Case in point:
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyzvztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Even with large(ish) volume spikes the bots just snap the price right back to where it was before.
The bots rule...
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1zigHourlyzvztgSzm1g10zm2g25
Even with large(ish) volume spikes the bots just snap the price right back to where it was before.
The bots rule...
Yep, nice little 'sawtooth' wave. Saw that one early this morning. Aaaaand we're back in the 13.50 range again. I'm not complaining really, if it removes the casual players due to boredom - I won't be crying. Also sure beats "CRASH CRASH CRASH" threads every couple of days in the forums.
interesting to see the analysis, my take on the relative stability over the last few weeks:
having a stable price between 13-14 should give merchants more confidence to begin accepting bitcoins.
that's my dream, to be able to walk into a subway and buy my lunch for 0.5 BTC...
or how about filling the cart at walmart for a whopping 7 BTC?
if the major retailers get on board, we might see some movement, but for now, it's still just "fringe economics"
having a stable price between 13-14 should give merchants more confidence to begin accepting bitcoins.
that's my dream, to be able to walk into a subway and buy my lunch for 0.5 BTC...
or how about filling the cart at walmart for a whopping 7 BTC?
if the major retailers get on board, we might see some movement, but for now, it's still just "fringe economics"
It looks like customers are fleeing from Mt Gox with the reduced trade rates ending. I say so because Mt Gox volume has dropped by a factor of 3, but the other exchanges are holding up.
I think some of the slow trading action has been due to people transferring out of Gox.
I think some of the slow trading action has been due to people transferring out of Gox.
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