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sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 09, 2011, 08:18:06 PM
Code:
 Actual Low     High   2011-08-02                                                               Date 
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |========== |           |           |           |           |           | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 |           | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 |           | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 | 08-08
08-09 |  7.7    12.1  |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== | 08-09
08-10 |               |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 | 08-10
08-11 |               |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 | 08-11
08-12 |               | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 | 08-12
08-13 |               |  12.748-  |           |           |           |           | 7.78-8.75 | 08-13
08-14 |               |   13.228- |           |           |           |           |           | 08-14
08-15 |               |    13.383 |           |           |           |           |           | 08-15
08-16 |               |    "      |           |           |           |           |           | 08-16
legendary
Activity: 2408
Merit: 1121
August 09, 2011, 11:32:03 AM
Now that Scenarios 1 and 2 have been blown out of the water  Tongue...

I am now looking at Scenario 3. It still seems to be dependent on where we end up on the day. Generally, the prices that I would expect going forward will be higher if we end up higher, and lower if we end up lower. As I see it right now, if we do not test new highs or new lows for the day the threshold for the 24 hour price looks like $8.22 to avoid a dip below $7.00 over the next four days. For what it is worth, I place a 75% confidence level on that outcome. If it looks like things have changed I will post an update. But I will still post the four day targets after 12am GMT.


Don't sweat it, my model looks like a sheet hung out in a hurricane. You're doing better than that, by a long shot. I'm interested as well to see if we maintain a 10 dollar support level in the next 24 hours.
legendary
Activity: 1106
Merit: 1001
August 09, 2011, 09:11:46 AM
Monkey, meet ouija board... Ouija board, meet monkey  Grin
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
August 09, 2011, 06:46:48 AM
Hi, Chod, I have been reading this and it gives me quite a bit help, so I'll give my two cents, which migh actullay be worthless, but anyway, here it goes.

I actually somehow found out about the rally beforehand because in one of the markets I trade, Britcoin, the highest bidding price for BTC is constantly and suspiciously higher than that of Mt.Gox by a large margin, during the whole weekend, as you can see from this graph from http://fnoose.com/bitcoin/arbitrage/, the arbitrage profit margin skyrocketd in the last few days, when Mt.Gox price was taking a dip:

  


then I assume that someone may be buying in large quantites to prepare for a big uptrend attack yet don't want to move the Mt.Gox price yet, I might be totally wrong, but all I want to say is: maybe the ride in price between markets is some useful information you could include in your model.(Or if you have alreaady done that, just ignore me)
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 100
August 08, 2011, 11:31:59 PM
Yeah sorry Chod. I used to be a believer, but it's starting to look like you're pulling things out of your @!!. Mostly based on the movement in the past week or so...
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 08, 2011, 11:29:52 PM
Seriously? You say that after the $150K push to $9 within the past hour? (I added your predictive histories above Cheesy)
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 08, 2011, 09:38:53 PM
So, the market is either going up, otherwise it will go down. Smiley Looks like better rewards betting on Scenario 1.

Code:
 Actual Low     High   2011-07-06  2011-07-10                                                                                                 |
Date    =====   ====   ==========  ==========                                                                                                 | Date
07-06 | 13      16.5  | 10.735-   | 11.763-   |                                                                                               | 07-06
07-07 | 14.5    15.9  |  14.267-  |  13.615-  |                                                                                               | 07-07
07-08 | 13.9    15.6  |   18.370- |   15.604- |                                                                                               | 07-08
07-09 | 14.04   14.7  |    22.269 |    16.535 |            day 11..14                                                                         | 07-09
07-10 | 14.35   15.7  |    "      |    "      |            ==========                                                                         | 07-10
07-11 | 13.8    15.2  |    "      |    "      |2011-07-13 | 14.0-14.5 |                                                                       | 07-11
07-12 | 13.9    14.65 |    "      |    "      |========== | 13.9-14.6 |                                                                       | 07-12
07-13 | 13.9    14.15 |    "      |    "      | 11.833-   | 13.6-15.8 |                                                                       | 07-13
07-14 | 13.7    14.07 |    "      |    "      |  14.339-  | 13.6-14.2 |                                                                       | 07-14
07-15 | 13.5    14.07 |    "      |    "      |   16.863- |           |                                                                       | 07-15
07-16 | 13.5    13.8  |    "      |    "      |    18.028 |           |                                                                       | 07-16
07-17 | 13      13.75 |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |                                                                       | 07-17
07-18 | 12.5    14.6  |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |                                                                       | 07-18
07-19 | 13.5    14.7  | 10.047-   | 10.852-   | 12.738-   |           |                                                                       | 07-19
07-20 | 13.4    14    |  13.352-  |  13.870-  |   15.244- |           |2011-07-21                                                             | 07-20
07-21 | 13.4    13.8  |   17.193- |   15.325- |   17.228- |           |========== |2011-07-22 |2011-07-23                                     | 07-21
07-22 | 13.45   13.8  |    20.842 |    16.834 |    19.142 |           | 13.5-14.0 |========== |==========                                     | 07-22
07-23 | 13.51   13.76 |    "      |    "      |    "      |2011-07-25 | 13.3-14.3 | 13.2-14.1 | 13.4-14.1 |2011-07-24                         | 07-23
07-24 | 13.63   14.1  |    "      |    "      |    "      |========== | 13.4-14.8 | 13.2-14.6 | 13.2-14.3 |==========  2011-07-25             | 07-24
07-25 | 13.75   14.7  |    "      |    "      |    "      | 12.895-   | 13.4-15.0 | 13.2-14.6 | 12.9-14.0 | 13.5-14.4 |==========             | 07-25
07-26 | 13.77   14.05 |    "      |    "      |    "      |  13.448-  |           | 14.0-15.5 | 12.8-13.6 | 13.3-14.2 | 13.6-14.6 |           | 07-26
07-27 | 13.68   14.13 |    "      |    "      |    "      |   14.239- |           |           |           | 13.2-13.8 | 13.5-14.3 |           | 07-27
07-28 | 13.3    13.95 |    "      |    "      |    "      |    15.462 |           |           |           | 13.1-13.8 | 13.5-14.2 |2011-07-29 | 07-28
07-29 | 13.33   13.7  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 13.1-14.0 |========== | 07-29
07-30 | 13.45   13.63 |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |2011-07-31 |           |           |           |           | 13.4-13.9 | 07-30
07-31 | 12.8    14.9  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |========== |2011-08-02 |           |           |           | 13.4-13.8 | 07-31
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 | 10.085-   | 12.775-   |    "      |    "      | 13.1-13.5 |========== |           |           |           | 13.4-13.8 | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  |  13.403-  |  14.569-  | 16.775-   | 12.145-   | 13.0-13.5 | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           | 13.2-13.8 | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  |   17.257- |   18.232- |  17.402-  |  14.534-  | 13.0-13.4 | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 |    20.920 |    20.361 |   20.325- |   16.426- | 13.0-13.3 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    |    "      |    "      |    20.952 |    18.251 | 12.966-   | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |  13.238-  | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |   13.883- |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.468 |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== | 08-08
08-09 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 | 08-09
08-10 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 08-10
08-11 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 08-11
08-12 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 08-12
08-13 |               |    "      |    "      | 20.117-   | 15.995-   |    "      |  12.748-  |           |           |           |           | 08-13
08-14 |               | 20.573-   | 19.498-   |  20.830-  |  16.592-  |    "      |   13.228- |           |           |           |           | 08-14
08-15 |               |  27.342-  |  20.464-  |   22.692- |   19.379- | 12.834-   |    13.383 |           |           |           |           | 08-15
08-16 |               |   35.206- |   28.627- |    31.324 |    19.977 |  13.253-  |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-16
08-17 |               |    42.678 |    53.838 |    "      |    "      |   14.176- |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-17
08-18 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    14.871 |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-18
08-19 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-19
08-20 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-20
08-21 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-21
08-22 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-22
08-23 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-23
08-24 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-24
08-25 |               |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-25
08-26 |               |           |    "      |           |           |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-26
08-27 |               |           |           |           |           |    "      |    "      |           |           |           |           | 08-27
08-28 |               |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-28
full member
Activity: 210
Merit: 106
August 08, 2011, 08:08:54 PM
Following this...
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 08, 2011, 06:19:08 PM
That makes sense. G Trends seemed to be predictive on the way up to $32 but was meaningless on the way down.

Chodpaba out of curiousity, if it's not too much trouble, could you apply crude, silver, and gold to the DJI. Oil (and bitcoin!) seems to follow the stock market perfectly (NASDAQ, S&P) gold is a mirror inverse and silver is drunk walking. Brent crude, bitcoin, silver, gold:
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 08, 2011, 05:39:55 PM
(Google trend)

This one worries me. Google trend is the number of queries, not the awareness (which would be more cumulative). Does that mean that if/when bitcoin is mainstream and no longer query/news worthy then the price will be $0?
hero member
Activity: 784
Merit: 1000
August 08, 2011, 09:17:57 AM
member
Activity: 163
Merit: 10
August 08, 2011, 12:59:56 AM
u should make a website and post updates, and then put that description somewhere there too
If you want to digest the posts somewhere—knock yourself out...

Is that permission to make a website out of it?
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 07, 2011, 10:41:41 PM
If it makes any sense, I'd still appreciate side comments on those 'low value' correlations. For example, in a recent post you saw $2 in the crystal ball and then retracted it yesterday to $6. Both of those data are interesting.
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 07, 2011, 08:43:42 PM
I've updated the previous chart with most (all?) of Chodpaba's text predictions including today's. I have not tried to extract numbers from his graphic charts. Below is a simplified table.

On the left we have dates MM-DD followed by the actually daily high and low at Mt. Gox. In the right most columns are Chodpaba's predictions for each day below the date of the prediction. Chodpaba provided two types of predictions: explicit high low for each day (I've rounded and ignored the variance), and ~weekly ranges.

For example, under 2011-07-21 Chodpaba made four predictions for the 22, 23, 24, and 25 July. We can see the actual low for 22 July was $13.45, high 13.8, but Chodpaba predicted $13.5-14 the day before. For the 25th, Chodpaba made five predictions on that and the previous days from 2011-07-21 to 2011-07-25. The actual day's price range was $13.75-14.7; Chodpaba predicted $13.4-15 four days earlier, and skipping across $13.5-14.4 the day before. On the day of the 25th he also made a range prediction (the last column) with 13.448-14.239 inner range and 12.895-15.462 outer range over the week from 25 July to 1 August.

In order to compress the table, I've moved many of the of the later predictions under earlier predictions. So, for example Chodpaba's predictions made on 2011-07-29 share the same column as 2011-07-21. I hope that doesn't confuse too much. Maybe I'll be so motivated to put this in HTML and update it frequently. Though I only put it together as a reaction to negative posts. Franky I think Chodpaba's been solidly on, although his earlier month-in-advance were way off and he failed to predict the drop on 4 August. But on balance, I think Chodpaba'a predictions have been disturbingly accurate.

Code:
Actual  Low     High    2011-07-21
        =====   ====  | ========== | 2011-07-22 | 2011-07-23 |
07-22 | 13.45   13.8  |  13.5-14.0 | ========== | ========== |
07-23 | 13.51   13.76 |  13.3-14.3 |  13.2-14.1 |  13.4-14.1 | 2011-07-24 |            | 2011-07-25 |
07-24 | 13.63   14.1  |  13.4-14.8 |  13.2-14.6 |  13.2-14.3 | ========== | 2011-07-25 | ========== |
07-25 | 13.75   14.7  |  13.4-15.0 |  13.2-14.6 |  12.9-14.0 |  13.5-14.4 | ========== |  12.895-   |
07-26 | 13.77   14.05 |            |  14.0-15.5 |  12.8-13.6 |  13.3-14.2 |  13.6-14.6 |   13.448-  |
07-27 | 13.68   14.13 |            |            |            |  13.2-13.8 |  13.5-14.3 |    14.239- |
07-28 | 13.3    13.95 | 2011-07-29 |            |            |  13.1-13.8 |  13.5-14.2 |     15.462 |
07-29 | 13.33   13.7  | ========== |            |            |            |  13.1-14.0 |     "      |
07-30 | 13.45   13.63 |  13.4-13.9 | 2011-07-31 |            |            |            |     "      |
07-31 | 12.8    14.9  |  13.4-13.8 | ========== | 2011-08-02 |            |            |     "      |
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |  13.4-13.8 |  13.1-13.5 | ========== |            |            |     "      |
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  |  13.2-13.8 |  13.0-13.5 |  13.0-13.5 |            |            |  12.145-   |
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  |            |  13.0-13.4 |  13.3-13.8 |            |            |   14.534-  |
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 |            |  13.0-13.3 |  13.6-14.1 | 2011-08-06 |            |    16.426- |
08-05 |  9.5    11    |            |  12.966-   |  13.1-14.1 | ========== |            |     18.251 |
08-06 |  5.75   10    |            |   13.238-  |  12.258-   |  5.26-     | 2011-08-07 |     "      |
08-07 |  6       9.5  |            |    13.883- |   12.734-  |  6.32-8.65 | ========== |     "      |
08-08 |               |            |     14.468 |    13.554- |  6.35-6.56 |  6.76-8.08 |     "      |
08-09 |               |            |     "      |     14.079 |  6.37-6.52 |  5.93-7.55 |     "      |
08-10 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  4.61-6.44 |  5.93-6.28 |     "      |
08-11 |               |            |     "      |     "      |  2.329-    |  6.02-6.75 |     "      |
08-12 |               |            |     "      |  12.550-   |            |            |     "      |
08-13 |               |            |     "      |   12.748-  |            |            |  15.995-   |
08-14 |               |            |     "      |    13.228- |            |            |   16.592-  |
08-15 |               |            |  12.834-   |     13.383 |            |            |    19.379- |
08-16 |               |            |   13.253-  |     "      |            |            |     19.977 |
08-17 |               |            |    14.176- |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-18 |               |            |     14.871 |     "      |            |            |     "      |
08-19 |               |            |     "      |     "      |            |            |     "      |
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 07, 2011, 07:02:04 PM
Code:
Actual  Low   High   2011-07-06 2011-07-10
        ===== ====   ========== ==========
07-06 | 13    16.5  | 10.735-  | 11.763-  |
07-07 | 14.5  15.9  |  14.267- |  13.615- |
07-08 | 13.9  15.6  |   18.370-|   15.604-|
07-09 | 14.04 14.7  |    22.269|    16.535|day 11..14
07-10 | 14.35 15.7  |    "     |    "     |==========
07-11 | 13.8  15.2  |    "     |    "     | 14.0-14.5|2011-07-13
07-12 | 13.9  14.65 |    "     |    "     | 13.9-14.6|==========
07-13 | 13.9  14.15 |    "     |    "     | 13.6-15.8| 11.833-  |
07-14 | 13.7  14.07 |    "     |    "     | 13.6-14.2|  14.339- |
07-15 | 13.5  14.07 |    "     |    "     |----------|   16.863-|
07-16 | 13.5  13.8  |    "     |    "     |----------|    18.028|
07-17 | 13    13.75 |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |
07-18 | 12.5  14.6  |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |
07-19 | 13.5  14.7  | 10.047-  | 10.852-  |          | 12.738-  |
07-20 | 13.4  14    |  13.352- |  13.870- |2011-07-21|  15.244- |
07-21 | 13.4  13.8  |   17.193-|   15.325-|==========|   17.228-|2011-07-22|2011-07-23
07-22 | 13.45 13.8  |    20.842|    16.834| 13.5-14.0|    19.142|==========|==========
07-23 | 13.51 13.76 |    "     |    "     | 13.3-14.3|    "     | 13.2-14.1| 13.4-14.1|2011-07-24            2011-07-25
07-24 | 13.63 14.1  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-14.8|    "     | 13.2-14.6| 13.2-14.3|==========|2011-07-25|==========
07-25 | 13.75 14.7  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-15.0|    "     | 13.2-14.6| 12.9-14.0| 13.5-14.4|==========| 12.895-  |
07-26 | 13.77 14.05 |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     | 14.0-15.5| 12.8-13.6| 13.3-14.2| 13.6-14.6|  13.448- |
07-27 | 13.68 14.13 |    "     |    "     |          |    "     |----------|----------| 13.2-13.8| 13.5-14.3|   14.239-|
07-28 | 13.3  13.95 |    "     |    "     |2011-07-29|    "     |----------|----------| 13.1-13.8| 13.5-14.2|    15.462|
07-29 | 13.33 13.7  |    "     |    "     |==========|    "     |          |----------|----------| 13.1-14.0|    "     |
07-30 | 13.45 13.63 |    "     |    "     | 13.4-13.9|    "     |2011-07-31|          |----------|----------|    "     |
07-31 | 12.8  14.9  |    "     |    "     | 13.4-13.8|    "     |==========|2011-08-02|----------|----------|    "     |
08-01 | 12.85 13.55 | 10.085-  | 12.775-  | 13.4-13.8|    "     | 13.1-13.5|==========|----------|----------|    "     |
08-02 | 11.5  13.1  |  13.403- |  14.569- | 13.2-13.8| 16.775-  | 13.0-13.5| 13.0-13.5|----------|----------| 12.145-  |
08-03 |  8.7  12.2  |   17.257-|   18.232-|----------|  17.402- | 13.0-13.4| 13.3-13.8|          |----------|  14.534- |
08-04 |  9.75 11.75 |    20.920|    20.361|----------|   20.325-| 13.0-13.3| 13.6-14.1|2011-08-06|----------|   16.426-|
08-05 |  9.5  11    |    "     |    "     |----------|    20.952| 12.966-  | 13.1-14.1|==========|          |    18.251|
08-06 |  5.75 10    |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |  13.238- | 12.258-  | 5.26-    |2011-08-07|    "     |
08-07 |  6     9.5  |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |   13.883-|  12.734- | 6.32-8.65|==========|    "     |
08-08 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    14.468|   13.554-| 6.35-6.56| 6.76-8.08|    "     |
08-09 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    14.079| 6.37-6.52| 5.93-7.55|    "     |
08-10 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     | 4.61-6.44| 5.93-6.28|    "     |
08-11 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     | 2.329-   | 6.02-6.75|    "     |
08-12 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     | 12.550-  |----------|----------|    "     |
08-13 |             |    "     |    "     |----------| 20.117-  |    "     |  12.748- |----------|----------| 15.995-  |
08-14 |             | 20.573-  | 19.498-  |----------|  20.830- |    "     |   13.228-|----------|----------|  16.592- |
08-15 |             |  27.342- |  20.464- |----------|   22.692-| 12.834-  |    13.383|----------|----------|   19.379-|
08-16 |             |   35.206-|   28.627-|----------|    31.324|  13.253- |    "     |----------|----------|    19.977|
08-17 |             |    42.678|    53.838|----------|    "     |   14.176-|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-18 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    14.871|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-19 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-20 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-21 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-22 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-23 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-24 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-25 |             |    "     |    "     |----------|    "     |    "     |    "     |----------|----------|    "     |
08-26 |             |----------|    "     |----------|----------|    "     |    "     |----------|----------|----------|
08-27 |             |----------|----------|----------|----------|    "     |    "     |----------|----------|----------|
08-28 |             |----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|----------|
member
Activity: 163
Merit: 10
August 07, 2011, 03:57:20 AM
u should make a website and post updates, and then put that description somewhere there too
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1015
August 07, 2011, 02:52:17 AM
No offense Chod but your daily targets have been WAY OFF. Now obviously there has been a ton of bad news, but still even before the bad news your targets were off. Is technical analysis on something like Bitcoin even possible at this point in time? I mean literally any second this market can go off like the Apollo mission or sink like the Titanic. It just takes someone with money, so my question is how can any of your programs/information/experience predict this in such a volatile and small market?

Essentially, it will take a lot more data. As I have stated, I expect it will take least two years' data in order to produce reliable results. We just don't have enough experience with this market IMO.

You might not be able to expect Titanic-like disasters, although—with modeling that works good enough you can run Titanic-like scenarios and use the outputs as a basis for contingency planning.

As it stands, and as I have already stated, I don't recommend that these results be used for guidance at this point. I post here for those that are interested in my research and its applications. I don't make any claims as to the reliability for the price projections. And, whenever reliable results can be demonstrated I won't have to make any claims. I will be free with my opinions in any case...
Don't get me wrong I appreciate your contributions, and of course you are not responsible for anyone here loosing money. However, I am starting to agree with you, this market is VERY hard to predict, and anyone who thinks they got it "all figured out" is DEAD WRONG.
hero member
Activity: 616
Merit: 500
Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)
August 06, 2011, 11:42:46 PM
Does your system also outputs how certain/uncertain it's predictions are?
legendary
Activity: 1764
Merit: 1015
August 06, 2011, 11:29:59 PM
No offense Chod but your daily targets have been WAY OFF. Now obviously there has been a ton of bad news, but still even before the bad news your targets were off. Is technical analysis on something like Bitcoin even possible at this point in time? I mean literally any second this market can go off like the Apollo mission or sink like the Titanic. It just takes someone with money, so my question is how can any of your programs/information/experience predict this in such a volatile and small market?
sr. member
Activity: 322
Merit: 251
FirstBits: 168Bc
August 06, 2011, 11:21:04 PM
I don't understand the methodology but have been impressed with your results. Do you have a web link for weekend education?
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