Topic: : - page 24. (Read 70881 times)
Glad I was wrong, but now I have to go back to the drawing board.
I see on some of my charts that we are setting up for another thrust up. I can't tell you the exact timing, just the pressure is there. Back to scrutinizing the daily charts...
I see on some of my charts that we are setting up for another thrust up. I can't tell you the exact timing, just the pressure is there. Back to scrutinizing the daily charts...
Are you using oscillators by any chance? Because I have found them to be particularly unreliable in such a non-linear market...
Not directly, but there is an influence on my model that is of the SIN(x) variety. That would account for the large variation projecting forward. Think I'll stick with my indicators on the charts though, been getting better results with that, even though I can't say *when* something will happen, just what side to be on.
Too bad there is not an actual Linux version.
They do indicate you can run it under WINE, with subsequent 'listening' servers running natively in linux if you're using multiple machines.
Not sure if the python API wrapper could help, but it's there. I am a bit surprised it isn't a native linux application.
Also, interesting notes - based on some of the models I've built using this process, it indicated the prior daily bar close of 13.16 would result in a daily close for 07/18 in the 14.23 area. I was a bit skeptical seeing how that would be over a dollar to the upside, but wouldn't you know it, we're in the 14.00 area now - which puts it in the confidence band of the projection.
Interesting stuff...
That analogy is schlock. The great difference is the week of frozen trading (Jun 19-25) whereby no data is comparable, it just bears a passing resemblance to thin trading. Frankly the time series analysis seems to change substantially every few days and so is useless. (No offense to OP, I understand what you are doing. Laypersons beware.)
You mean, doubters beware. I almost lost my shirt doubting the correlation today.
ah but the great difference is that it's curving down...
That analogy is schlock. The great difference is the week of frozen trading (Jun 19-25) whereby no data is comparable, it just bears a passing resemblance to thin trading. Frankly the time series analysis seems to change substantially every few days and so is useless. (No offense to OP, I understand what you are doing. Laypersons beware.)
It is easy enough to collect the daily data from BitcoinCharts. Just click on a chart, set the Time Period to '1 day', set the check box for Custom Time and then you can just scan through each day to collect open, high, low, close, and volume...
Ah, thanks! I'll update my charts and see what is brewing. Also, I've been messing with genetic algorithms using this tool:
http://creativemachines.cornell.edu/eureqa
Allows for multiple inputs which are cut-and-pasted into an excel like spreadsheet, label the columns and assign variables - then unleash it to find mathematical relationships in the data. I've got a few models already from this, but I'm keeping a close eye on it before I publish anything. I encourage anyone working with difficulty/price to give it a go.
Which is how I came up with this completely unscientific wishful (helps me sleep at night) chart based on (check out the 's' and 'e' parameters) http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&c=1&t=S&s=2010-10-25&e=2011-01-15 :
http://genaud.net/bitcoin/201106combo.png
I'd say it's a smart point of view, IMO, i see our short-term similar to this(but not so fast and not now,patience is the key) if trend continues...
...August will be key in proving whether bitcoin will get beyond the perceived 'bubble' symmetry in the earlier run-up. Personally, I think it will.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
It is easy enough to collect the daily data from BitcoinCharts. Just click on a chart, set the Time Period to '1 day', set the check box for Custom Time and then you can just scan through each day to collect open, high, low, close, and volume...
Which is how I came up with this completely unscientific wishful (helps me sleep at night) chart based on (check out the 's' and 'e' parameters) http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/chart.png?m=mtgoxUSD&c=1&t=S&s=2010-10-25&e=2011-01-15 :
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
It isn't hard to cook. PM me, it's off topic here.
Edit: hmm, I haven't used a proper wording here. What I have is a CSV file with daily data, not a source or a way to get daily data from somewhere. I currently download tick-by-tick data and group it by days with a small Perl script.
Interesting, chodpaba.
I really have to get my charts updated. Been scrounging for daily data (already parsed from the firehose of tick-data available), but it looks like I'll have to write my own methods to do that.
As you know, I think August will be key in proving whether bitcoin will get beyond the perceived 'bubble' symmetry in the earlier run-up. Personally, I think it will.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
I really have to get my charts updated. Been scrounging for daily data (already parsed from the firehose of tick-data available), but it looks like I'll have to write my own methods to do that.
As you know, I think August will be key in proving whether bitcoin will get beyond the perceived 'bubble' symmetry in the earlier run-up. Personally, I think it will.
I keep asking various people, but if anyone knows of a tabular daily historical source where I don't have to convert UTC timestamps and filter through a bazillion ticks, I'd be very thankful. And no, as far as I know bitcoincharts doesn't offer any kind of Open/High/Low/Close 'browsing' on their charts historically.
Wow. Just wow 
. Keep up the good work!
A daily snapshot can become a neat animation after 2 or 3 months...
. Keep up the good work!I will update this chart periodically, it will be interesting to see how it changes over time.
A daily snapshot can become a neat animation after 2 or 3 months...
There are high peaks below $1 because trading was at these levels for such a long time.
Wouldn't it make more sense to use log scale for the price groupings? There was still plenty of volatility when the price was below $1.
(Offtopic: Thanks a lot chodpaba (and Enky1974), your reports and analyses are really interesting and by far the most professional in this forum !
I would really like to call them the most reliable and accurate price predictions as well, but at this moment, nobody can really tell what's going to happen next week....
Anyway, keep doing your great analyses !)
I would really like to call them the most reliable and accurate price predictions as well, but at this moment, nobody can really tell what's going to happen next week....
Anyway, keep doing your great analyses !)
In baby terms, you're looking at (daily period) things like this?:
...to predict what will happen after this?:
...and maybe take a weighted average against periods of time that look similar (weighted by how similar they are)? Do you scale time (for example can a slow 2 month pattern match a fast volatile 2 week pattern) or volatility (100% variance matching 1% variance)? Do you hand pick similar periods, or does every conceivable period get weighted in (maybe x day durations, iterated every day)?
...to predict what will happen after this?:
...and maybe take a weighted average against periods of time that look similar (weighted by how similar they are)? Do you scale time (for example can a slow 2 month pattern match a fast volatile 2 week pattern) or volatility (100% variance matching 1% variance)? Do you hand pick similar periods, or does every conceivable period get weighted in (maybe x day durations, iterated every day)?
Enjoy your analysis greatly Chodpaba as well as your difficulty analysis. Just wanted to let you know I regard yours as the best by far.
The market awaits Chodpada's new targets before departing from $14.
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