: - page 17. | Bitcointalksearch.org

dree12

legendary

Activity: 1246

Merit: 1077

I place the IQR for Thursday at $7.79 to $8.55. I am not yet convinced that the $8.00-$8.10 support level is ready to be broken, although the trend for the next few days seems to be down.

*image*

Price fell below $8, and is still dropping. It definately looks like it's tending down. When do you expect it to return?

Flappy

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

I am still not seeing much reason to keep price from testing the $6.30 range although it could take a couple more days to get there. Saturday I expect to see lows in the mid $7's and highs not higher than the mid $8's, then languishing in the mid $7's Sunday...

A scenario like this one would put the price near $9.30 Saturday.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2zczsg2011-08-02zeg2011-08-05zvzlztgSzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g50zx

Which, following the Aug 3rd scenario, could lead to lower lows as we saw Aug 6.

Flappy

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Flappy on August 26, 2011, 02:02:19 PM

Quote from: chodpaba

Is this chart volume weighted?

The methodology was explained here: https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/--22685

Do you see value in adding volume weighting?

Flappy

member

Activity: 99

Merit: 10

Quote from: chodpaba

Is this chart volume weighted?

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: ?? on ??

Beeeeep...

We're backing up.

coined

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Beeeeep...

eh...

S3052

legendary

Activity: 2100

Merit: 1000

I like your time scaling.

Indeed, price pattern tend to repeat themselves very often, and the only thing to adjust is time.

This is also one element in Elliott Wave analysis, and some of that we use in addition to out bitcoin price forecast in the Technical Analysis reports very successfully.

netrin

sr. member

Activity: 322

Merit: 251

FirstBits: 168Bc

August Target Performance
(actual daily prices in left columns followed by each of chodpaba's ~four targets under the date of prediction)

Code:

 Actual Low     High   2011-08-02                                                                                                   Date
08-01 | 12.85   13.55 |========== |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-01
08-02 | 11.5    13.1  | 13.0-13.5 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-02
08-03 |  8.7    12.2  | 13.3-13.8 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-03
08-04 |  9.75   11.75 | 13.6-14.1 |2011-08-06 |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-04
08-05 |  9.5    11    | 13.1-14.1 |========== |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-05
08-06 |  5.75   10    | 12.258-   | 5.26-     |2011-08-07 |     08-08 |     08-08 |           |           |           |           | 08-06
08-07 |  6       9.5  |  12.734-  | 6.32-8.65 |========== |Scenario 1 |Scenario 2 |           |           |           |           | 08-07
08-08 |  7.05    8.1  |   13.554- | 6.35-6.56 | 6.76-8.08 |========== |========== |2011-08-09 |           |           |           | 08-08
08-09 |  7.7    12.1  |    14.079 | 6.37-6.52 | 5.93-7.55 | 5.09-7.99 | 7.95-9.33 |========== |           |           |           | 08-09
08-10 |  9.5    10.4  |    "      | 4.61-6.44 | 5.93-6.28 | 4.29-5.74 | 8.06-8.95 | 7.90-10.2 |           |           |           | 08-10
08-11 |  8.45   10.5  |    "      | 2.329-    | 6.02-6.75 | 4.91-6.12 | 8.27-8.48 | 7.90-8.41 |2011-08-12 |           |           | 08-11
08-12 |  8.91    9.80 | 12.550-   |           |           | 5.10-5.67 | 8.14-8.71 | 7.78-8.31 |========== |2011-08-13 |2011-08-14 | 08-12
08-13 |  9.28   10.25 |  12.748-  |2011-08-15 | IRQ 08-15 |           |           | 7.78-8.75 | 9.13-9.60 |========== |========== | 08-13
08-14 |  9.62   11.24 |   13.228- |========== |========== |           |           |           | 7.44-9.17 | 9.21-10.1 | 9.95-10.6 | 08-14
08-15 | 10.72   11.89 |    13.383 | 10.4-11.0 | 9.84-11.6 |           |           |           | 7.62-10.4 | 8.81-9.49 | 9.57-10.5 | 08-15
08-16 | 10.81   11.32 |    "      | 8.81-11.1 | 7.97-12.1 |           |           |           | 7.07-9.02 | 8.84-9.13 | 9.68-11.3 | 08-16
08-17 | 10.66   11.10 |    "      | 8.17-10.1 | 7.29-11.7 |           |           |           |           | 8.78-9.30 | 11.1-12.7 | 08-17
08-18 | 10.81   11.05 |    "      | 8.03-9.59 | 7.02-12.0 |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-18
08-19 | 10.83   11.81 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-19
08-20 | 11.40   11.69 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-20
08-21 | 11.31   11.51 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-21
08-22 | 10.51   11.50 |    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-22
08-23 |(10.81 ? 11.30)|    "      |           |           |           |           |           |           |           |           | 08-23

Still not convinced by time-scaling?

Quote from: netrin on August 06, 2011, 09:13:59 AM

cloon

sr. member

Activity: 387

Merit: 250

I really like your predictions much! it's like an aditional indicator!
but how do you calculate the prediction?
how do you get the horizontal lines?
thx 4 your answer!

DrYe5

sr. member

Activity: 490

Merit: 250

Quote from: ?? on ??

Ok, I am ready to call it.

Right now I am very happy with the new rule sets for selecting correlations. I am not yet ready to show the daily targets beyond the 29th but suffice it to say they line up nicely with re-target period model. I really like it when different methodologies give me similar results so here it is...

I'm assuming such a late August rally is totally implausible at this point. How long will it take to retest the lows when people realize this isn't coming?

Piper67

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1001

Yup, it definitely biases towards the low... which is why it's stupid to suggest this is an attempt at shoring up the market. If anything, it's a downward magnet.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Seems that the bots are pumping up the support as well......

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

While I am fairly certain that steadybot means well, by attempting to cultivate a stable market and all that, I do not think it's operator understands the unintended consequences of this strategy. By preventing price from floating up above $11.80 there is now redoubled resistance to the upside of $11.60 when it could have just as well have been a support level... Now I am seeing the upside potential unwind, leaving downside potential as the more likely proposition. If the hope is to attract investors/merchants by this strategy I would have to say at this point that it will be self-defeating. This kind of stickiness will virtually guarantee a gradual downward slide of the exchange rate over the long term... Now, if that is what steadybot intends all I have to say is "good job".

Well, in case of emergency, it would be quite easy for them to reverse the trend by removing the ask walls and buy all the 0.0* asks all the way up to somewhere like $15 anyway, unless there is a mighty short-seller working against them....

coined

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: coined on August 21, 2011, 07:12:07 PM

Quote from: fcmatt on August 21, 2011, 06:43:28 PM

Quote from: coined on August 21, 2011, 05:40:44 PM

Quote from: GeniuSxBoY on August 21, 2011, 05:10:42 PM

Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally, they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour Tongue

myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9? Grin

I am not seeing any fresh signs or reasons for a rally. All I am seeing/feeling is a flat line or a slight sloping downwards in price due to
a lack of worthwhile news coming from the convention. I would not be shocked at all to see 9-10 per BTC this week and that is how I played
it with that in mind. A lot of miners held off selling this week and without any movement they will unload not just a few days worth
of mining, but two weeks worth into this 11ish dollar price.

It could definitely go back down(looks likely), that's why I said they are holding cash and waiting(very sensible right now), I'm sure lots of people got money into the exchanges ahead of time for this conference, so they could move fast to buy if the market went that way, just that mentality and the ready cash is why I think It wouldn't take much upwards movement for everyone to just jump on, rather than let it get away from them, it could be now, or tuesday, or it could go down to 9.5/10 and from there a rally to 11 again and that could be the trigger, It's more psychological than technical analysis, and we could also just watch it slowly fall forever Grin

it's that rally trigger that's needed.

Technical analysis is psychology...

all technical analysis is psychology? Huh

I thought it was more complicated and likely beyond my current understanding Grin

I was telling him my theory was psychological rather than technical, because i didn't come up with it from the market charts, I am no expert at all, I don't know how to correctly read the indicators and signals Tongue

and would have reached the same conclusion with no charts, thats all I meant, how should I have worded it? Huh

also, do you think the bot held the market back here(stopping the slow steady rising that might have kicked off panic buying), or was it just the anti climactic conference?

coined

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: fcmatt on August 21, 2011, 06:43:28 PM

Quote from: coined on August 21, 2011, 05:40:44 PM

Quote from: GeniuSxBoY on August 21, 2011, 05:10:42 PM

Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally, they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour Tongue

myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9? Grin

I am not seeing any fresh signs or reasons for a rally. All I am seeing/feeling is a flat line or a slight sloping downwards in price due to
a lack of worthwhile news coming from the convention. I would not be shocked at all to see 9-10 per BTC this week and that is how I played
it with that in mind. A lot of miners held off selling this week and without any movement they will unload not just a few days worth
of mining, but two weeks worth into this 11ish dollar price.

It could definitely go back down(looks likely), that's why I said they are holding cash and waiting(very sensible right now), I'm sure lots of people got money into the exchanges ahead of time for this conference, so they could move fast to buy if the market went that way, just that mentality and the ready cash is why I think It wouldn't take much upwards movement for everyone to just jump on, rather than let it get away from them, it could be now, or tuesday, or it could go down to 9.5/10 and from there a rally to 11 again and that could be the trigger, It's more psychological than technical analysis, and we could also just watch it slowly fall forever Grin

it's that rally trigger that's needed.

fcmatt

legendary

Activity: 2072

Merit: 1001

Quote from: coined on August 21, 2011, 05:40:44 PM

Quote from: GeniuSxBoY on August 21, 2011, 05:10:42 PM

Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally, they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour Tongue

myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9? Grin

I am not seeing any fresh signs or reasons for a rally. All I am seeing/feeling is a flat line or a slight sloping downwards in price due to
a lack of worthwhile news coming from the convention. I would not be shocked at all to see 9-10 per BTC this week and that is how I played
it with that in mind. A lot of miners held off selling this week and without any movement they will unload not just a few days worth
of mining, but two weeks worth into this 11ish dollar price.

coined

full member

Activity: 174

Merit: 100

Quote from: GeniuSxBoY on August 21, 2011, 05:10:42 PM

Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

pretty much,

probably loads of people with cash at the ready right now, they see the signs for a rally, they are just waiting to see if it will go back down first, nothing wrong with that, it wouldn't take much upwards movement for us all to jump on thinking if we miss it, it could be $16 in an hour Tongue

myself included, how far would YOU let it go before you jumped on? 11.6 11.9? Grin

GeniuSxBoY

hero member

Activity: 616

Merit: 500

No body is even putting up bids or putting up asked Huh

Everyone is waiting for someone to break the cycle.

oakpacific

hero member

Activity: 784

Merit: 1000

Quote from: YoYa on August 21, 2011, 10:59:11 AM

Interesting......There are so many bot padding sell's in place, The market is essentially coiled in an upward direction:
1000 BTC to get to 11.56 as opposed to 1500 to get to 11.29

Hmmm, was thinking the bot was going to ratchet us down and was tempted to go short...might hold off for a while now instead....

Agree, or be a bit more bold and adventurous, BUY!

YoYa

hero member

Activity: 809

Merit: 501

Always verify deals with me through my public key!

Interesting......There are so many bot padding sell's in place, The market is essentially coiled in an upward direction:
1000 BTC to get to 11.56 as opposed to 1500 to get to 11.29

Hmmm, was thinking the bot was going to ratchet us down and was tempted to go short...might hold off for a while now instead....

Topic: : - page 17. (Read 70883 times)