: - page 3. | Bitcointalksearch.org

Piper67

legendary

Activity: 1106

Merit: 1001

Quote from: cbeast on January 23, 2012, 01:27:45 AM

Market   Last   Volume (24h)   Bid   Ask   High   Low
mtgoxUSD    6.2513    42,762.84    6.25    6.29    6.45    6.10
thUSD    6.2781    3,135.08    6.29    6.34    6.45    6.11
virwoxSLL    1649.5000    1,393.00    1505.10    1648.40    1693.00    1500.00
mtgoxEUR    4.9406    1,329.47    4.93    4.94    5.04    4.85
intrsngGBP    4.1204    1,218.36    4.12    4.20    4.21    4.07
btcexUSD    5.8700    881.24    5.87    6.20    6.40    5.38
intrsngEUR    4.7501    796.61    4.76    5.00    5.00    4.74
cryptoxUSD    6.3900    700.53    5.06    6.39    10000000.00    5.04

lol

I knew BTC would be worth a lot some day :-)

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1006

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

Market   Last   Volume (24h)   Bid   Ask   High   Low
mtgoxUSD    6.2513    42,762.84    6.25    6.29    6.45    6.10
thUSD    6.2781    3,135.08    6.29    6.34    6.45    6.11
virwoxSLL    1649.5000    1,393.00    1505.10    1648.40    1693.00    1500.00
mtgoxEUR    4.9406    1,329.47    4.93    4.94    5.04    4.85
intrsngGBP    4.1204    1,218.36    4.12    4.20    4.21    4.07
btcexUSD    5.8700    881.24    5.87    6.20    6.40    5.38
intrsngEUR    4.7501    796.61    4.76    5.00    5.00    4.74
cryptoxUSD    6.3900    700.53    5.06    6.39    10000000.00    5.04

lol

cbeast

donator

Activity: 1736

Merit: 1006

Let's talk governance, lipstick, and pigs.

I think I've finally figured out what's going on here. Bitcoin is going up. In USD it follows normal patterns. In Canadian Dollars, you just double them and add 30, but then convert that in a cancellation wave. In Australia, the patterns are upside down, so you need to be contrarian. Every odd Saturday, the pattern changes, but Bitcoin still continues to go up. Mostly I'll just buy and hold, but sometimes I'll just hold.

cheat_2_win

full member

Activity: 215

Merit: 100

Can this thread be stickied?

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: notme on January 19, 2012, 09:51:05 PM

Thanks. Is there any particular reason you chose OBV over PVT for scaling? It seems like PVT is just a smoother view of the same data.

PVT is useful for spotting divergence in price and volume, so if you see price climbing and PVT staying flat you can cry "bullshit".

I'm not really doing that, all I am interested in is looking at a delta of volume over a sample time period that is either going up or going down to get an idea of average daily volume, it doesn't even matter what that number is, for the purposes of the chart it is just 'average daily volume'. The method is a lot more like how OBV is calculated so I call it OBV. The chart isn't in dollars, it isn't in days—it is just average volume days.

Also, it is not intended to be precisely quantitative, which I don't think would be meaningful to do given the wide range of volume fluctuations from day to day. I don't trade on this chart, and I pity the fool who does, but I do use it as a sanity check on the order book.

Volume is definitely unpredictable in this market. I would agree that trading on support/resistance alone can be dangerous.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Thanks. Is there any particular reason you chose OBV over PVT for scaling? It seems like PVT is just a smoother view of the same data.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

@Chodpaba
Can you explain the difference between OBV and PVT?

arepo

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

this statement is false

i'm astonished that $5.90 has that much support already.

proudhon

legendary

Activity: 2198

Merit: 1311

Quote from: ?? on ??

That was some crazy shit, and I will admit that it plays hell with my models...

This schizophrenic episode has fucked up a lot of data.

chsados

hero member

Activity: 662

Merit: 545

Quote from: notme on January 16, 2012, 06:12:09 AM

Quote from: chsados on January 16, 2012, 05:54:52 AM

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

would anyone mind helping me on my way to do just this? i dont want to poach or anything but i really want to learn how to start doing my own educated speculating. if someone wants to pm me just saying theyd like to take the time to chat in IRC at a future date would make me one happy guy!

Have you tried reading the thread? He goes into pretty high detail about his model.

yea doin that now, spoke too soon.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: chsados on January 16, 2012, 05:54:52 AM

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

would anyone mind helping me on my way to do just this? i dont want to poach or anything but i really want to learn how to start doing my own educated speculating. if someone wants to pm me just saying theyd like to take the time to chat in IRC at a future date would make me one happy guy!

Have you tried reading the thread? He goes into pretty high detail about his model.

chsados

hero member

Activity: 662

Merit: 545

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

would anyone mind helping me on my way to do just this? i dont want to poach or anything but i really want to learn how to start doing my own educated speculating. if someone wants to pm me just saying theyd like to take the time to chat in IRC at a future date would make me one happy guy!

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 04:48:45 AM

Quote from: notme on January 16, 2012, 03:08:18 AM

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

Yes, I agree he has been generous.

Historical data:
http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/

Everyone is generous in this thread. I plan to buy high and sell low for all of you.

Thanks a lot Wink

.

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: notme on January 16, 2012, 03:08:18 AM

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

Yes, I agree he has been generous.

Historical data:
http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/

Everyone is generous in this thread. I plan to buy high and sell low for all of you.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:55:46 AM

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

Yes, I agree he has been generous.

Historical data:
http://bitcoincharts.com/about/markets-api/

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Chodpapa's given me enough info to do roughly the same thing if I build up enough historical data... that is very generous in my mind. He could just as well be sitting back manipulating everyone.

notme

legendary

Activity: 1904

Merit: 1002

Quote from: bb113 on January 16, 2012, 02:40:35 AM

Godspeed then. You are doing an awesome thing, and I hope your algorithm works well enough that you will have the motivation/time to share it with the rest of us one day.

He used to share it... look back through the thread. He quit because forum leaches were cutting into his profits.

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Godspeed then. You are doing an awesome thing, and I hope your algorithm works well enough that you will have the motivation/time to share it with the rest of us one day.

bb113

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: bb113 on January 15, 2012, 08:51:35 PM

Can we get ghostlines on these? Like from 24 hours ago?

Nope, just the earlier posts.

To tell you the truth I am not even very interested in the earlier ones because the history gets incorporated into the latest graph.

After posting, I felt bad even asking you to do anything extra without contributing something myself. I have been reading this thread off and on for months and think it is an excellent experiment. My understanding is that currently you are calculating a lagging indicator... I think that including ghostlines would allow qualitative assessment of how well this could work as a leading indicator without requiring much effort. Unless I am wrong, what we see in your charts now is the probability of repeating price movements given the history. To predict the future we should look for the probability of various price histories given that a price movement occurs. Calculating this may require many simulations of price movements and thus be difficult and expensive. I have no idea.

Honestly, I know nothing about trading besides what I've observed in the bitcoin market and read on these forums. I am just applying Bayes' rule. I can't stress enough that I may not know what I am talking about; so please give me shit for it if it makes no sense. Or better, explain why I am wrong.

Mushoz

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Bitbuy

Quote from: bb113 on January 15, 2012, 08:51:35 PM

Can we get ghostlines on these? Like from 24 hours ago?

Ooooh, that would be interesting! Great idea!

Topic: : - page 3. (Read 70881 times)