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legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 29, 2013, 07:21:20 PM
#93

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

I did a quick analysis earlier today, comparing the late May situation (that ended in the month long downtrend)  to now. Using the indicators and tools that I usually find reliable, I can't see a fundamental difference between now and then.

Which doesn't mean that we're heading for a reversal, just that, with one difference(*) perhaps, May and August look similar, and the former situation saw to a drastic, rather unexpected, reversal.

(*) the one difference I can see and that I would say is perhaps relevant is the duration of the uptrend until the reversal: when price started to fall in May, we only had a two week run-up behind us. Today, we're in a solid uptrend for almost two months.

To my experience, I would not expect to see the longer sustained uptrend that adamstgBit seems to be expecting unless it starts out much slower, for much longer.

Yes, I am expecting the current trend to continue to 180 and maybe even to a new ATH.

The news surrounding bitcoin is unprecedented, and the fact that most speculators are not speculating on these new developments, and instead pretending that everyone will suddenly lose confidence and sell it down to new lows, is kinda weird...

I understand that 2011's bubble deflated much futured down, but thats because everyone lost confidence and sold, this is clearly not going to happen today, the only thing that can save you bears is if some retarded whale starts dumping coins in a panic as another country declares bitcoin legal tender.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
August 29, 2013, 05:21:36 PM
#92

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...

I did a quick analysis earlier today, comparing the late May situation (that ended in the month long downtrend)  to now. Using the indicators and tools that I usually find reliable, I can't see a fundamental difference between now and then.

Which doesn't mean that we're heading for a reversal, just that, with one difference(*) perhaps, May and August look similar, and the former situation saw to a drastic, rather unexpected, reversal.

(*) the one difference I can see and that I would say is perhaps relevant is the duration of the uptrend until the reversal: when price started to fall in May, we only had a two week run-up behind us. Today, we're in a solid uptrend for almost two months.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 29, 2013, 04:24:14 PM
#91
Markets stay irrational longer than the contents of your MtGox USD stash.....

ya

and IMO this market hasn't hit the irrational stage yet...

Its perfectly rational to think 1BTC will soon be worth 200-500$ given the bitcoins relentless growth, and peoples ever increasing confidence in it, due to a worldwide phenomenon know as, getting butt fucked by your bank.

hehehehe  Grin
legendary
Activity: 3108
Merit: 1531
yes
August 29, 2013, 04:13:51 PM
#90
Markets stay irrational longer than the contents of your MtGox USD stash.....
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 29, 2013, 03:54:34 PM
#89
$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it Smiley

this thread is going to cost a lot of people a lot of bitcoin...

there's nothing to indicate a reversal is coming...
sr. member
Activity: 516
Merit: 283
August 29, 2013, 03:42:01 PM
#88
$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.

No. I feel even less confident about going out more than one reversal.

And I don't think we have seen the first one yet.

Thanks... I feel a reversal coming as well, just can't put a value on it Smiley
sr. member
Activity: 516
Merit: 283
August 29, 2013, 02:24:03 PM
#87
$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

does this low peak estimate still stand? I understand it may not take place on that day, however, I'm curious value wise.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
August 29, 2013, 02:17:15 PM
#86
At the rate things are going I'd have to extend the target another week.

$137 Thursday, September 05, 2013

I should have stayed with the original methodology, which still seems to be holding for indicating reversal from intermediate peaks. But reading an indicator after the fact and projecting where it will converge in the future are two different things. Mostly, there just wasn't enough information to do the projection. But basically, the closer to the convergence we get the easier it is to see where it will happen. But I can not really predict how fast it will happen.

Ok, thanks for posting the new prediction.
However, it does not fit with my EW sub-sub-wave recognition. I expect the peak no later than tomorrow the 30th August, although I can't see any sign in market indicators yet.
The 30th fits from a temporal perspective, but not from money flow or MACD. And the peak could be quickly followed by a whale dump including the 127$ buy wall.
That's what happened in May, with a 25k+ BTC buy wall, also at 127$ IIRC. It could happen again.
Also, the 137$ peak value: it's too high IMO, it would require a buy of 1.8 M$ plus resistance. Do you see that much money available for the push?
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
August 29, 2013, 03:57:14 AM
#85
Chodpaba, would you like to share with us an updated prediction for today's peak?
Yesterday I expected a rather large buy, not whale but large enough to move the price up a bit.
Very short term market indicators were improving and several times small players tried to start
a mini-rally, but seller pressure was too high and kept pushing them back. Considering the
high seller pressure ( as I write this ), is the 137$ peak still in the cards?

And if you investigated and found some reasons for the error to predict the last big rise?
I tried to find the error in my EW recognition, and beside the obvious mistake of counting the
rebound as the first sub-wave, I found that the noise in the price is too high to accurately
recognize EW (actually, sub-sub-waves). From the 20th to the 23rd August there were too many
ups and downs, courtesy of the panic buyers, and the sub-sub-waves got distorted badly.
I do however see promise in counting sub-sub-waves in market indicators, other than price.
full member
Activity: 232
Merit: 100
August 27, 2013, 03:03:25 PM
#84
another way to look at this, which would also filter for specific sized events, is to do an event-triggered average.

the event could be a price movement of X% (e.g +/- 5) with a volume requirement of Y std dev (e.g. 3) away from the mean for the exchange over some time Z (eg. 4hr). this would then filter for only the largest events on the respective exchanges.

then take those timestamps (t=0) and select the data from the other exchange from say t +/- 4 hrs. make 2 event-triggered averages, bitstamp-triggered Gox average, and Gox-triggered bitstamp average.

alter the variables x,y,z to increase or decrease sensitivity.


legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
August 27, 2013, 02:28:07 PM
#83
for clarity, that's a 30 min fixed offset over the entire history you test on, right?

(by the way, how do you run those tests? something custom made or matlab+mtgox data?)
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
August 27, 2013, 01:59:41 PM
#82
This goes completely against my intuition on this, and my (non testable, I admit) observations. Like I already said, I never expected a one-way influence of one on the other with a constant lead time, but I expect there to be some consistent effect. I have no idea of showing it though, so I have to come back to it when I can think of a way.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
August 27, 2013, 01:03:19 PM
#81
Or the effect isn't picked up because that way of looking at it is too coarse, and the leading time might not be constant either, for example could depend on volume or volatility, in which case your global offset wouldn't be the right tool either.
legendary
Activity: 1470
Merit: 1007
August 27, 2013, 11:16:29 AM
#80
Had planned to say this for a while now, but I really appreciate that you post on here, chodpaba. The level of mathematical sophistication of your methods is way above what others write on here, myself included. Plus, you have the integrity to admit when your methods missed their target.

That said, one of your basic assumptions, that you've mentioned in a discussion before, is not adequate anymore: that a price model can be built on mtgox data alone. (Disclosure: I trade on bitstamp)

The argument for that assumption usually goes like: price on mtgox and all other exchanges are almost perfectly correllated (plus/minus some near constant price difference perhaps), and trends start on mtgox, so the price on other exchanges is largely a function of mtgox price.

I simply don't think that's the case anymore. For example, yesterday:





During most of the day, both exchanges were in a weak downtrend. A few large buy orders (in the range of 400k USD) turned the trend around on bitstamp Monday night. 6 or so hours later, mtgox really kicked off the current trend, with a buy volume of almost 4M USD. I'm sure on a bigger scale, it will look again like they're neatly correlated, but it's not at all clear to me that the big positive trend on mtgox is unrelated to the previous positive trend on bitstamp.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think mtgox and bitstamp are equally important in determining the price. Bitstamp has about half the total volume of mtgox now, but probably its influence on the price is an even smaller fraction. Doesn't really matter though, even if bitstamp only accounts for, say, 15% of the price development, that's a pretty big chunk to ignore IMO.

Interested in your opinion on this. (you could argue of course that since they're so strongly correlated, any influence other exchanges have on the price will eventually show up on the mtgox price itself, but for a serious predicitive model, that's kind of sloppy.)
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 27, 2013, 09:35:54 AM
#79
If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

Now what did you do?


found your answer in another thread:

I know I'm not buying anything at this price.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
August 27, 2013, 08:30:52 AM
#78
Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013

OK, thanks. It's believable, but I have serious doubts that the 135 resistance level will be broken.
Many got stuck there 3 months ago. If however the 135 is broken, I wouldn't be surprised to see 150.
Currently there are about 1.5M$ not deployed, which money if used to buy could set things rolling upwards.

PS. Important memo to myself: don't count the rebound as the first Elliot sub-wave!
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 27, 2013, 06:09:31 AM
#77
If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

Now what did you do?
legendary
Activity: 1437
Merit: 1002
https://bitmynt.no
August 27, 2013, 05:55:55 AM
#76
Gox is seriously starting to run out of BTC, its down to 55K, that's 2 weeks of mining.
55K isn't that bad.  It was lower in April.
sr. member
Activity: 826
Merit: 250
CryptoTalk.Org - Get Paid for every Post!
August 27, 2013, 05:44:10 AM
#75
Gox is seriously starting to run out of BTC, its down to 55K, that's 2 weeks of mining.  Clearly the flow of coins onto Gox has largely ceased and people their are essentially trading a limited pool back and forth.  When supply dropped to these levels in early January it was the beginning of the bubble which saw supply shrink to around 25K just prior to the crash.  Could we be re-entering that kind of bubble market?  I'm doubtful, the 2013 bubble had much much higher volume all through the run up then we can sustain now, if not for these whale-buys their would literally be no activity at all.   Clearly these prices are not bringing in vast numbers of speculators that we saw earlier this year, only established players are playing this market and their funds are limited.  
legendary
Activity: 1316
Merit: 1000
Varanida : Fair & Transparent Digital Ecosystem
August 27, 2013, 03:42:28 AM
#74
Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?

Um... $137 Thursday, August 29, 2013
Grin
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