. - page 17. | Bitcointalksearch.org

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

Quote from: rampantparanoia on August 16, 2013, 08:56:30 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I don't know. It's hard to tell.

We might actually have a few up days in the cards before this turns around.

But as its sure to go down... How low will it go?

its not "sure to go down"

is it? Undecided

rampantparanoia

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Quote from: ?? on ??

I don't know. It's hard to tell.

We might actually have a few up days in the cards before this turns around.

But as its sure to go down... How low will it go?

AU

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^ That sounds really great but the price is declining lol

Adrian-x

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Quote from: ?? on ??

hysteresis loop

You keep expanding my vocabulary. Thanks
Do I understand the effect correctly?
The blue line represents trend up and the red trend motion down and a lot of coin is speculative recycling in the process.
I presume the annealing metaphor is appropriated in it is forging a ductile market.

Force = Price
Loading = Bid demand
Unloading = Ask demand
Extension = overall market demand (or time?)

Just out of curiosity, in your opinion is this process being manipulated, or is it forming directly as chaotic feedback form market forces?

Tzupy

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Double top should mean we go down from now, but something is not right:
There are about 20k BTC missing from the orders, during the last 3 days.
This could keep the upwards trend going (if more BTC leave Fort Gox).

PS. chodpaba, would you mind giving another prediction, considering that the 'missing' 20k BTC should influence the market.
Today's rally was mostly whale-driven (well, major buyer), while the last one on the 31st July was mostly market-driven (didn't result in missing BTC).

PS2. thank you for the answer below, I also suspect we will move a bit sideways and then 'have a ride'.
My concern is when to get out of this ride, before it crashes (I mean when to move my coins from Gox to Bitstamp).

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

proudhon isn't chodpaba.

Anyway can we call this 'done' since we have bounced off 115 two times now?

Adrian-x

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Quote from: proudhon on August 14, 2013, 10:44:06 AM

LOL'ed,

You in the wrong section, can't help but think you are Chodpaba

Pruden

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Spanish Bitcoin trader

Chodpaba, I admire the depth of your philosophical prose, but I can still remember when you introduced some indicator that would signal the bubble peak, even posting hourly with huge zooms into your chart as the market moved towards the sell signal and triggered it, only to then confess you had run the numbers again and got a completely different image. That, and this market-relevant event below, make it clear:

Quote from: proudhon on August 14, 2013, 10:44:06 AM

BUY BUY BUY Grin

Tzupy

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I bought only 22 at 112, so I have something to sell, and sold them at 114.95.
But I'm waiting for confirmations for 40 more from Bitstamp, so please don't drop below 114 during the next hours. Grin

PS. @chodpaba: does your indicator take into consideration the possibility of entering a positive feedback loop (if the BTC on Fort Gox are depleted)?

phoenix1

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Quote from: ?? on ??

If we don't reach $115 again by tomorrow this is done.

We just did ... now what ?

proudhon

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Tzupy

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115 just happened, so your prediction became true early!
It's unsustainable IMO, but weird things can happen...

TiagoTiago

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Firstbits.com/1fg4i :)

What is your prediction about the accuracy of your predictions about the price?

Impaler

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Were seeing the same pattern in these price rises that I identified earlier, it's due to falling coin depth on Gox, plummeting from 90K to 70K in just 2 days. Were also seeing the same 2:1 trade volume to depth decline, the two days have been about 20K in total volume each vs 10K in depth lose each, meaning that the market is continuing to be very illiquid and the Gox-bitstamp differential is growing, Gox has already shot past its late July peak while bit-stamp remains below its equivalent peak.

keystroke

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advocate of a cryptographic attack on the globe

Quote from: ?? on ??

Going to Monte Carlo. I'll be back soon after I figure out all the dependencies.

$110

Oracle, do we bet red or black? Wink

HeliKopterBen

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: HeliKopterBen on August 13, 2013, 07:27:34 AM

Here is how to make a successful prediction:

1) Write an lengthy article with the following statements spaced apart with a lot of mumbo jumbo in between:
"Based on solid fundamentals and a few technical indicators I am looking at, we should see a price increase in the next days/weeks/months."
"Recent government clamp-downs over the last few days could cause a price decline."
"With low volume and a general disinterest in the market place, the price could be stagnant."
2) Later point back to whichever statement was correct.
3) Nobody bothers to go back and look at what you actually wrote and you are declared a genius.

First of all, I don't believe any of those things. I have revised my opinion of the trajectory of Bitocin market development over time but these points have become fairly solidified.

There is no reason to expect that government clamp-downs, as you say, would cause price to decline. My position has been that this will introduce frictions which will cause exchange rate differentials, sometimes large differentials leading ultimately to a bifurcation of crypto-only, and crypto/native markets.

There is no reason to expect disinterest in market price to cause price to stagnate. In the short-mid term this is largely due to uncertainty. In the long term price will follow a similar pattern to what we have observed, with increasing volatility leading to a catastrophe which ultimately bifurcates the market. This behavior, I believe, can be described as a deterministic chaotic attractor. I am seeking to understand the mechanics of that system. In doing so I occasionally observe indicators that seem to provide useful information on an actionable time scale.

It is all experimental, very pre-alpha, use at your own risk.

Maybe I should have added

/sarc Wink

HeliKopterBen

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Here is how to make a successful prediction:

1) Write an lengthy article with the following statements spaced apart with a lot of mumbo jumbo in between:
"Based on solid fundamentals and a few technical indicators I am looking at, we should see a price increase in the next days/weeks/months."
"Recent government clamp-downs over the last few days could cause a price decline."
"With low volume and a general disinterest in the market place, the price could be stagnant."
2) Later point back to whichever statement was correct.
3) Nobody bothers to go back and look at what you actually wrote and you are declared a genius.

Tzupy

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I predict that chodpaba will revise the prediction to 120 -121, and I have a theory about how this can happen.
Normally we should be in wave C of the corrective trend, when $ are withdrawn from the market, and we should have
5 downwards sub-waves. But on Fort Gox it happens the other way: each BTC withdrawal moves the price up, so
maybe we are going to experience another 4 'downward' sub-waves, that actually move the price up by 3 - 4 $ each.

Impaler

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It seems the predicted rally is moving 1 day into the future every day. I understand that volume is at appallingly low levels but this rally is looking doubtful to me, coin depth on Gox has been on a slight upward trajectory but dollars seem hesitant, having briefly fallen to 11 million recently before coming back (seemingly in one instant transaction that looks like a whale).

Adrian-x

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Thanks

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