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Topic: . - page 16. (Read 35852 times)

legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 21, 2013, 03:57:37 PM
#53
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Unbelievable but proper.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
August 21, 2013, 03:56:03 PM
#52
Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

Exactly.  At least Chodpaba uses some rigor and explains his methods.  I can't say that about a single other person on these boards.
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
August 21, 2013, 03:52:48 PM
#51
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.
A
Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   Wink


from what i recall, chod's prediction was moved earlier in time and lower in price each day until prediction and price converged at ~115 last week when he picked a local top on the 4-Hr charts. during a continued uptrend, we will cross all predicted prices and since local tops come every few days, its hard not to be right Smiley but its entertaining to read nonetheless.




Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 21, 2013, 03:11:30 PM
#50
It's funny that nobody believed that 'fluke' except chodpaba himself at that time.
I expressed a strong disbelief in the 124 $ on August 21st prediction.
If I would have based my transactions on the 'fluke' I would have done much better...
full member
Activity: 232
Merit: 100
August 21, 2013, 03:01:06 PM
#49
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   Wink


from what i recall, chod's prediction was moved earlier in time and lower in price each day until prediction and price converged at ~115 last week when he picked a local top on the 4-Hr charts. during a continued uptrend, we will cross all predicted prices and since local tops come every few days, its hard not to be right Smiley but its entertaining to read nonetheless.


hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
August 21, 2013, 01:49:26 PM
#48
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.

I don't wish to mislead anyone. It's a fluke. Really.

Don't worry.  I'm wary of the broken clock scenario.   Wink
hero member
Activity: 622
Merit: 500
August 21, 2013, 01:21:38 PM
#47
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Very impressive.
AU
member
Activity: 98
Merit: 10
August 20, 2013, 04:39:04 PM
#46

That right there is the problem I have with EW. You can always go back and fit another set of waves that fit the rules according to new information.

Curve fitting.

Sorry, I missed it, I see now that you put the BTC.

im surprised ur prediction proved accurate thus far. if the price rebounds like u say you will have added another devout follower

/bow
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 20, 2013, 11:09:55 AM
#45
Yes, I know you meant 80k BTC, just wasn't clear in my reply, only put the BTC sign at the first sum.

After reading your estimation, I looked again at the Elliot waves, and realized that I didn't count the rebound
of August 9th as the first sub-wave. When counting that one too, we have hit the third and most powerful
sub-wave of wave 5. I expect a 4th sub-wave to happen, drop to about 114, then rise to about 120 again,
and then some erratic behavior for several days, followed by the 2 large drops with a rebound between them
and a larger rebound after the second drop. We'll see soon enough...
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 20, 2013, 10:31:43 AM
#44
Ok, thanks for the answer. I suspected that some 40k - 50k BTC missing from the order book would add
to the 19k till 130 we see in the order book. And there are also those who got stuck at the end of May. So the 80k estimate
of yours is plausible. But the up uP UP crowd claims that those coins missing from the order book are out of Gox.

I sold yesterday at 120 (not great, I know) and am waiting for the price to drop. After reading your evaluation, I'll just wait and see.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 20, 2013, 10:04:23 AM
#43
The erosion of momentum already pretty much guarantees a drop to $105...

It's already baked in.

Wow, that's a bold prediction, if I would make it I would get laughed at.
In fact, I have been laughed at because I complained that panic buyers don't let the price drop to 115.
I expected a third rally up to 130, then a drop to about 105, in 2 phases. Do you say there won't be any rally to 130?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
August 19, 2013, 06:00:20 PM
#42
This update does not really have anything to do with recent developments. I just did a little data scrubbing and it changed the projection somewhat.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013
$119

Not too shabby.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?

Timing has always been a problem. I can not really tell how long the process will take, particularly since we are not trending as strongly now. But I am expecting sideways to down for a while.


What if x-axis was volume instead of time?


We will see tomorrow? :-) ... ( August 21, 2013 $124 very good.)
member
Activity: 99
Merit: 10
August 19, 2013, 05:49:18 PM
#41
This update does not really have anything to do with recent developments. I just did a little data scrubbing and it changed the projection somewhat.

Tuesday, August 20, 2013
$119

Not too shabby.

We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?

Timing has always been a problem. I can not really tell how long the process will take, particularly since we are not trending as strongly now. But I am expecting sideways to down for a while.


What if x-axis was volume instead of time?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 19, 2013, 05:28:32 PM
#40
Most people don't believe the 'to da moon' slogan, so yes, a market reversal is expected soon.
But does your analysis show that this last peak was the 3rd sub-wave of wave 5, and not the 2nd?

In the meantime, while the market should slowly drop towards 114, it plays with itself at 118...
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 19, 2013, 02:07:22 AM
#39
Do you mean, after we broke 120, you still see sideways and down?
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
- - -Caveat Aleo- - -
August 18, 2013, 10:57:17 PM
#38
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Looking pretty good.  Where will we be in 2 weeks?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 18, 2013, 04:09:39 PM
#37
IMO the whale is the one who has removed about 40k - 50k BTC from the ask sum, and drove
the price to the current high. It's also the one with the fake buy orders from 105 to 110, that are
only a scaffold for the sheeple to place their orders and then to be fleeced.
I admit that there could be several whales acting together, not just one big whale.
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 18, 2013, 03:39:50 PM
#36
No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.


you keep talking about "the whale"... who the hell is "the whale"?

Is that some sort of personification of certain types of trading behaviour?
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 18, 2013, 02:39:34 PM
#35
No more peak predictions from chodpaba? The way I see the market, we seem to be stuck.
The whale isn't willing (as I write this) to buy at 115, and the rest of the market seems weak.
He is just herding the market into buying, but this isn't working well until now.
Is there still a chance that we hit 120, or 115 was the peak of this bubble period?
I mean, if the sideways continues for several days, this counts as local peaks in the
5th wave, and we know what happens at the end of wave 5: harvesting.
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
August 16, 2013, 11:10:10 PM
#34
chodpapa please us with the bitcoin version of the following:


R code:
Code:

############################
##LORENZ strange attractor##
############################
#Modified From:
#http://fractalswithr.blogspot.com/2007/04/lorenz-attractor.html


# install.packages("rgl") # Install if needed.
library(rgl)

#####Settings
add.noise=F  #Gaussian +/- noise.sd
noise.sd=.01
live.plot=T
##

####Parameters
a=15; r=28; b=8/3; dt=0.01

n=5000   #Iterations
##


####Initial Conditions
Xa=0.01; Ya=0.01; Za=0.01    #Initial Condition Blue
Xb=0.01+.0001; Yb=0.01; Zb=0.01    #Initial Condition Red (Slight Difference)
Xc=20; Yc=20; Zc=.01    #Initial Condition Black (Large Difference)
##


####Misc
XYZa=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZb=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZc=array(0,dim=c(n,3))

par3d(font=2, family="serif",
      bg3d(color=c("darkslategray3","Black"),
           fogtype="exp2", sphere=TRUE, back="fill")
)
##


####Run
for(i in 1:n)
{
X1a=Xa; Y1a=Ya; Z1a=Za

Xa=X1a+(-a*X1a+a*Y1a)*dt
Ya=Y1a+(-X1a*Z1a+r*X1a-Y1a)*dt
Za=Z1a+(X1a*Y1a-b*Z1a)*dt


X1b=Xb; Y1b=Yb; Z1b=Zb

Xb=X1b+(-a*X1b+a*Y1b)*dt
Yb=Y1b+(-X1b*Z1b+r*X1b-Y1b)*dt
Zb=Z1b+(X1b*Y1b-b*Z1b)*dt


X1c=Xc; Y1c=Yc; Z1c=Zc

Xc=X1c+(-a*X1c+a*Y1c)*dt
Yc=Y1c+(-X1c*Z1c+r*X1c-Y1c)*dt
Zc=Z1c+(X1c*Y1c-b*Z1c)*dt


if(add.noise==T){
Xa<-rnorm(1,Xa,noise.sd)
Xb<-rnorm(1,Xb,noise.sd)
Xc<-rnorm(1,Xc,noise.sd)

Ya<-rnorm(1,Ya,noise.sd)
Yb<-rnorm(1,Yb,noise.sd)
Yc<-rnorm(1,Yc,noise.sd)

Za<-rnorm(1,Za,noise.sd)
Zb<-rnorm(1,Zb,noise.sd)
Zc<-rnorm(1,Zc,noise.sd)
}

XYZa[i,]=c(Xa,Ya,Za)
XYZb[i,]=c(Xb,Yb,Zb)
XYZc[i,]=c(Xc,Yc,Zc)

if(live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=.7, add=T)

points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)

rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
}

}
##

if(!live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[,1],XYZa[,2],XYZa[,3], col="Blue", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[,1],XYZb[,2],XYZb[,3], col="Red", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[,1],XYZc[,2],XYZc[,3], col="Black", alpha=.5, add=T)
}



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