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Topic: . - page 15. (Read 35852 times)

legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 27, 2013, 03:06:51 AM
#73
Just 1 - 2 days before the market dropping big, we have this large whale buy ( just the 125 wall ) that pushes the price
eventually beyond 130. Question: is this related to the news of the BF meeting or it's something else?
Anyway, this proved that one large whale buy ( or dump ) can't be predicted by TA.
Maybe he's trying to trigger a parabolic rise, but I still doubt he has the means.

Chodbapa, would you mind issuing another prediction, considering that the parameters have changed ( at least as I see )?
member
Activity: 110
Merit: 10
August 27, 2013, 01:43:40 AM
#72
Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

If it was shutting down Gox, i'm sure one of them would have the moral compass to tell us.

Lol
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
August 27, 2013, 01:40:18 AM
#71
Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)

If it was shutting down Gox, i'm sure one of them would have the moral compass to tell us.
member
Activity: 110
Merit: 10
August 27, 2013, 01:20:51 AM
#70
Or some insiders know some things after the meeting in Washington today.

Could be bad, they're shutting down gox (buy and transfer)
Could be good (just friggin buy!)
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
- - -Caveat Aleo- - -
August 27, 2013, 12:40:06 AM
#69
So where are the noteworthy peaks?

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 


So much for $124.94 being the peak...
legendary
Activity: 2097
Merit: 1070
August 26, 2013, 05:18:55 PM
#68
It looks like it's going to go down to me.

If we do break $125 convincingly any time soon with good bid support I might buy in but I find this outcome unlikely and I would be ready to dump it all in a heartbeat.

This is based merely on watching the charts since about January.
sr. member
Activity: 516
Merit: 283
August 26, 2013, 05:05:23 PM
#67
If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.

Lots of funds will be withdrawn, thats for sure. Ever been held hostage? When you were set free, did you leisurely stroll out of the place or run the f out? Smiley

Disclaimer: I have never been held hostage, unless you count stuck in awkward situations as being held hostage.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
August 25, 2013, 04:40:19 PM
#66
IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.


the base of what I hear
on board called speculation
is greed and naked fear
not sober calculation


 Grin
donator
Activity: 2772
Merit: 1019
August 24, 2013, 04:26:28 AM
#65
IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.


the base of what I hear
on board called speculation
is greed and naked fear
not sober calculation
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
August 23, 2013, 05:40:11 PM
#64
$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

$138
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
August 23, 2013, 05:19:32 PM
#63
So where are the noteworthy peaks?

After the original impulse from the run up to $266 on Wednesday, April 10, 2013 the unwinding of intermediate swings goes like this:

$50.01 Tuesday, April 16, 2013

$166.43 Wednesday, April 24, 2013
New net money actually came in for this, and after each swing is lower in volume than the last.

$79.00 Friday, May 03, 2013

$136.00 Sunday, May 26, 2013

$65.42 Friday, July 05, 2013

$124.94 Wednesday, August 21, 2013
Yes. I think It's done. If someone wants to do an EW fitting, or some such nonsense.


 


Great. Thanks.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 23, 2013, 04:33:31 PM
#62
$77 Saturday, September 14, 2013

Interesting. What's that supposed to be? The bottom most price after capitulation?
If so, I believe 14th September is too early, I expect that about 10 days later.
And the bottom depends a lot on the status of $ withdrawals from Gox, so IMO it's too early
to get a precise number. If lots of funds ($) get withdrawn, we could drop to the 50s.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
August 23, 2013, 01:06:30 PM
#61
IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.


Maybe, if you fixate on a single indicator it can fit any number of scenarios.

Can't ignore horizontal support and resistance, momentum.

+1

EW can be useful, but it should only be one piece of the puzzle.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
August 23, 2013, 11:08:36 AM
#60
IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.


Or just a 3 wave correction.  Sure, short - mid term bear, but I don't see any signs of a major, long term top.  5 waves up indicates the one larger trend is still up.  If we do get 5 waves down on the same timescale as the 5 up, then I'll have to reconsider.
legendary
Activity: 2156
Merit: 1094
August 23, 2013, 11:01:58 AM
#59
IMO the peaks before July are of little relevance to future price developments.
The important ones are 104 on July 11st, 111 on July 31st and this last one of 125 on August 21st.
I may be off with a day or two, just estimated the dates from the charts.
What's important is that those peaks belong to Elliot waves 1, 3 and 5.
Unless some miracle happens and the price rises again soon above 125, we're now in bear market.
sr. member
Activity: 280
Merit: 250
August 23, 2013, 06:14:56 AM
#58
So where are the noteworthy peaks?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
August 21, 2013, 10:01:23 PM
#57
Is this real life?

no.

this is bitcointalk.org, real life is outside N'stuff  Wink
full member
Activity: 238
Merit: 100
August 21, 2013, 09:36:40 PM
#56
Is this real life?
legendary
Activity: 966
Merit: 1000
- - -Caveat Aleo- - -
August 21, 2013, 09:35:58 PM
#55
We all like targets and time frames here—right?

So there's an experimental indicator I have been toying with. I'm going to see if it can get reasonably close to calling a mid-term peak. I'll update in the thread as new data comes in and there is any change to report on the target the indicator is calling.

Wednesday, August 21, 2013
$124

—Assume your own risk, blah blah...

Nailed it!
full member
Activity: 232
Merit: 100
August 21, 2013, 04:13:56 PM
#54
Yes it is hard to be right when trading markets.  The price could have went down.  Either way this would have been a winning trade, even if sold at 115.

Exactly.  At least Chodpaba uses some rigor and explains his methods.  I can't say that about a single other person on these boards.


yes i do appreciate his thought process and laying it out for all to see.

i also think he also came to the conclusion that prices on gox swing like an over-damped (and btw, very biologically tuned) oscillator. this has been true for at least a while and a very profitable piece of info.


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