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Topic: . - page 9. (Read 35863 times)

legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1003
WePower.red
September 04, 2013, 03:38:23 PM
You saw support today? If yes I already saw it days ago in depth... There is no bid strength ATM.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
September 04, 2013, 03:35:48 PM
So the price movement has "passed the test", and will soon resume to climb upwards ?

I though that if a support is broken the price will then rest on the support below that, until the next rally where that support tends to function as resisitance.

But I feel a little bit like a kindergarten teacher talking to a Doctor in physics.


EDIT you ninja posted me, notme. Thanks for the explanation.

You are referring to specific price points.  These are usually called support/resistance levels.  Support/Resistance in general just describes impedance to movement either up (resistance) or down (support).
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 03:31:35 PM
So the price movement has "passed the test", and will soon resume to climb upwards ?

I though that if a support is broken the price will then rest on the support below that, until the next rally where that support tends to function as resisitance.

But I feel a little bit like a kindergarten teacher talking to a Doctor in physics.


EDIT you ninja posted me, notme. Thanks for the explanation.
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1002
September 04, 2013, 03:28:18 PM
these dumps are showing us that support is high.

Could you explain ?

Support holds the price up, resistance keeps it down.  10K sell volume in one hour with only a 4% drop indicates there are still people willing to buy significantly at these prices.  In contrast, on April 10th, right after the peak 7K sell volume dropped us 7.7% in an hour.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 03:23:39 PM
these dumps are showing us that support is high.

Could you explain ?
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 04, 2013, 03:18:26 PM
$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Hahah that seems so random. The recent drop in price has allowed it to move up higher ?

these dumps are showing us that support is high.

i am also considering pushing my target UP, but obviously i'm in no rush...
legendary
Activity: 840
Merit: 1000
September 04, 2013, 03:14:16 PM
$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Hahah that seems so random. The recent drop in price has allowed it to move up higher ?

Well this recent drop is pretty much a healthy correction and needed after such a striking climb over the last two months. So yeah it can very well just continue up afterwards.
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 03:09:54 PM
$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013

Hahah that seems so random. The recent drop in price has allowed it to move up higher ?
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 02:54:21 PM
Pretty big drop in price the last hour. Does the target stand ?
full member
Activity: 181
Merit: 100
September 04, 2013, 02:42:25 PM
What about this?

Quote
New verification requirements

Bitstamp’s verification procedures are in accordance with high standards already adopted in today's financial world and assure Bitstamp’s service providers as well as regulators. To be in line with financial standards, as of September 30th, 2013, bitcoin and bank transfers will only be available to verified customers.
https://www.bitstamp.net/article/bitstamp-new-verification-requirements/ wonder if also ripple will be included
member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Developer
September 04, 2013, 02:27:00 PM
Seeing a lot of red today.  Curious if your indicators will change by this afternoon.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
September 04, 2013, 02:13:52 PM
I'll try to translate what Chodpaba said in whale terms:
There is one big $ whale who wants to accumulate coins in preparation for a future ( possibly not near ) price ( major ) rise.
Beside the big $ whale there are other whales who panic bought just after the big whale, driving the price up.

But the rest of the market is barely able to sustain this price level. Only a few other smaller whales buying about 2.5k and 5k the last 2 days
are those responsible for keeping the price at this level, when the 'right price' would have been about 138, not 143 as now.
If the big $ whale will make a new move, we know what follows. But if he does not? How bad will the price drop?
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 02:12:54 PM
If the avarage volume of the last 5 days would be double, what would that do to the reversal date ? Push it away and raise the price ?
legendary
Activity: 1274
Merit: 1050
September 04, 2013, 01:57:51 PM

Very interesting, chodpa. thanks for sharing.

So If I follow your theory ; a sustained price development has to be supported with volume. I guess your indicators warn of a point where buying pressure no longer can maintain the current price level and a ( perhaps temporary ) drop in price has to occur. Is this correct ?
legendary
Activity: 1666
Merit: 1057
Marketing manager - GO MP
September 04, 2013, 06:30:51 AM
chaos theory ... fractals ... R script ... logistic function ... oscillate then bifurcate ... lorenz strange attractor ... probability distribution ... stochastic noise

Sounds bullish.

get out.
legendary
Activity: 2170
Merit: 1094
September 04, 2013, 05:10:11 AM
The smart whale is still missing in action. But I think I spotted a fragile trend reversal in the bid sum / ask sum ratio ( which until now was dropping ),
and in the money flow index. The market may be slowly moving up on its own. If Chodpaba is right meaning that the whale just wants to accumulate coins,
and he has still $ to spend, he might decide to buy soon. That's not how I would buy lots of coins if I were a $ whale, so I'm still suspicious on his intentions.
member
Activity: 68
Merit: 10
September 04, 2013, 04:59:14 AM
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 04, 2013, 04:45:37 AM
Bonus: Albert Barabasi is also a name to know for network theory. He has been pushing it for understanding social and biological systems for the last 10 years or so. There hasn't been much adoption but he does get his stuff published in nature rather regularly. I'm not sure whats out there about applying it to markets, but preferential attachment seems like it should be related to wealth distribution, adoption of novel technologies, etc.

Here is a nice documentary introduction:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RcCpEf6_Ofg
hero member
Activity: 728
Merit: 500
September 04, 2013, 04:29:28 AM
I've recently discovered chaos theory and have come to think it is probably relevant to most types of research although it is going largely ignored. Definitely more people should be made familiar with chaos theory and fractals.

The logistic map example helped me understand what they mean by "chaos".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_map

This R script will run the logistic function with different parameters (default A from 1 to 4 by .1) and different starting points. You can see that for A between 1 and 3 the function always converges on a certain value, then as A is made larger x will oscillate between two values, then bifurcate a second time to oscillate between 4 values, then 8, then it eventually becomes chaotic (no repeating pattern no matter how many iterations).

R code:
Code:


#### x.new<-A*x.old*(1-x.old) # Logistic Function

# Settings
iters<-200  # Number of iterations
step<-.1 # Increase A by this step size
burn.in.steps<-150 # Throw Away first n steps when plotting A vs x.new
sleep.time<-.0000001 # Control speed (in seconds)

x.old.init<-seq(0.1,.9,by=.9) # Initial x values
A.max<-4 # Max A value
A<- 1 # Initial value for A parameter



#Initialize Variables and Chart
x.old<-x.old.init[1] # Set initial x value to first value determined above
out=cbind(A,x.old.init[1],x.old) # Initialize output matrix

dev.new(); plot(0,0,type="n", ylim=c(0,1), xlim=c(1,iters))

#Run function for increasing A values until equal to A max
while(A<=A.max){
 
  # Set initial x value to next one in vector determined above
  for(j in x.old.init){
    x.old<-j
   
    # Run for number of iterations set by iters
    for(i in 1:iters){
     
      x.new<-A*x.old*(1-x.old) # Logistic Function (update x.new)
     
      out<-rbind(out,cbind(A,j,x.new)) # Update output
     
      # Plot current run
      plot(c(j,out[which(out[,1]==A & out[,2]==j),3]), type="n", lwd=2,
           col="White",
           ylim=c(0,1), xlim=c(0,iters), pch=16,
           xlab="Iteration", ylab="X.new",
           main=c("X.new = A*X.old*( 1 - X.old )",
                  paste("A=",A,  "   X.initial=",j),
                  paste("X.new=", round(x.new,3))))
      for(k in x.old.init){
        color<-rainbow(length(x.old.init))[which(x.old.init==k)]
        points(c(j,out[which(out[,1]==A & out[,2]==k),3]), type="b", lwd=2,
               col=color,
               ylim=c(0,1), xlim=c(0,iters), pch=16,
               xlab="Iteration", ylab="X.new",
               main=c("X.new = A*X.old*( 1 - X.old )",
                      paste("A=",A,  "   X.initial=",j),
                      paste("X.new=", round(x.new,3))))
      }
      ##
     
     
      x.old<-x.new # x.old becomes x.new
    }
    Sys.sleep(sleep.time)
   
  }
  A<-round(A+step,2) # update A parameter
 
}

#Plot "A" parameter vs Results
dev.new()
plot(out[,1],out[,3], type="n", ylab="X.new", xlab="A",
     main="X.new = X.old*( 1 - X.old )"
)
for(i in 1:length(unique(out[,1]))){
  points(out[which(out[,1]==unique(out[,1])[i])[-(1:burn.in.steps)],1],
         out[which(out[,1]==unique(out[,1])[i])[-(1:burn.in.steps)],3])
}






The lorenz strange attractor is also pretty cool to mess around with:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lorenz_system

This script will let you watch the system evolve over time from 3 different starting points. Even a tiny difference in initial state means you will not know what state the system will be in at any given point, but regardless of initial state you can know a probability distribution. You can also rotate the image as it runs and add stochastic noise to see what happens.

R code:
Code:
############################
##LORENZ strange attractor##
############################
#Modified From:
#http://fractalswithr.blogspot.com/2007/04/lorenz-attractor.html


# install.packages("rgl") # Install if needed.
library(rgl)

#####Settings
add.noise=F  #Gaussian +/- noise.sd
noise.sd=.01
live.plot=T
##

####Parameters
a=10; r=28; b=8/3; dt=0.01

n=5000   #Iterations
##


####Initial Conditions
Xa=0.01; Ya=0.01; Za=0.01    #Initial Condition Blue
Xb=0.01+.0001; Yb=0.01; Zb=0.01    #Initial Condition Red (Slight Difference)
Xc=20; Yc=20; Zc=.01    #Initial Condition Black (Large Difference)
##


####Misc
XYZa=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZb=array(0,dim=c(n,3))
XYZc=array(0,dim=c(n,3))

par3d(font=2, family="serif",
      bg3d(color=c("darkslategray3","Black"),
           fogtype="exp2", sphere=TRUE, back="fill")
)
##


####Run
for(i in 1:n)
{
X1a=Xa; Y1a=Ya; Z1a=Za

Xa=X1a+(-a*X1a+a*Y1a)*dt
Ya=Y1a+(-X1a*Z1a+r*X1a-Y1a)*dt
Za=Z1a+(X1a*Y1a-b*Z1a)*dt


X1b=Xb; Y1b=Yb; Z1b=Zb

Xb=X1b+(-a*X1b+a*Y1b)*dt
Yb=Y1b+(-X1b*Z1b+r*X1b-Y1b)*dt
Zb=Z1b+(X1b*Y1b-b*Z1b)*dt


X1c=Xc; Y1c=Yc; Z1c=Zc

Xc=X1c+(-a*X1c+a*Y1c)*dt
Yc=Y1c+(-X1c*Z1c+r*X1c-Y1c)*dt
Zc=Z1c+(X1c*Y1c-b*Z1c)*dt


if(add.noise==T){
Xa<-rnorm(1,Xa,noise.sd)
Xb<-rnorm(1,Xb,noise.sd)
Xc<-rnorm(1,Xc,noise.sd)

Ya<-rnorm(1,Ya,noise.sd)
Yb<-rnorm(1,Yb,noise.sd)
Yc<-rnorm(1,Yc,noise.sd)

Za<-rnorm(1,Za,noise.sd)
Zb<-rnorm(1,Zb,noise.sd)
Zc<-rnorm(1,Zc,noise.sd)
}

XYZa[i,]=c(Xa,Ya,Za)
XYZb[i,]=c(Xb,Yb,Zb)
XYZc[i,]=c(Xc,Yc,Zc)

if(live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=.7, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=.7, add=T)

points3d(XYZa[i,1],XYZa[i,2],XYZa[i,3], col="Blue", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[i,1],XYZb[i,2],XYZb[i,3], col="Red", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[i,1],XYZc[i,2],XYZc[i,3], col="Black", alpha=1, size=10, add=T)

rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
rgl.pop()
}

}
##

if(!live.plot==T){
points3d(XYZa[,1],XYZa[,2],XYZa[,3], col="Blue", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZb[,1],XYZb[,2],XYZb[,3], col="Red", alpha=.5, add=T)
points3d(XYZc[,1],XYZc[,2],XYZc[,3], col="Black", alpha=.5, add=T)
}



member
Activity: 84
Merit: 10
Developer
September 03, 2013, 11:58:44 PM
Paying close attention to this thread.

+1, the sole purpose I come to bitcointalk speculation Smiley

Try not to make your financial investments in a vacuum.  Human nature can put our own interests above others.  Use this information how you will, but I encourage you to do your own research and analysis at the same time.

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