just buy Buy BUY...
why? 180 by end of week?
Topic: . - page 5. (Read 35836 times)
$174 Tuesday, September 17, 2013
$175 Saturday, September 21, 2013
$187 Friday, September 27, 2013
$192 Sunday, September 29, 2013
Are these still active?
syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.
did US boom them?
the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.
It is tempting to infer a psychology based on such 'fundamentals' but how do you measure that? What I am actually seeing is nothing more that a repetition of behaviors that can actually be measured. Until I see evidence that tells me something different I still have to base my conclusions on what can be demonstrated.
Right now I am taking a more principled look at the distribution of price movement, and I have discovered an interesting correlation between the standard deviation of movement from bin to bin, and momentum. It shows that as momentum picks up in either direction the standard deviation increases, and when momentum starts to reverse the standard deviation decreases. We have already gone through a period where the standard deviation has reached a minimum and it is now increasing again. I expect momentum to pick up in a downward direction. More to come...
Not everything that will affect the price can be measured. I'm not talking about psychology, I'm talking about the fact that people cannot get their fiat out of gox, which forces them to buy coins and move it elsewhere. This is simply a form of resignation which pushes the price up directly when those who finally realize there is no other way out decide to bite the bullet.
To be clear, I'm in no way discounting your methodology, I think it's very interesting and may be quite valid under normal market circumstances. But we are far from normal market circumstances and therefore there is no way one can use these sorts of techniques to achieve anything resembling market prediction.
syria is done so look for a drop i expected this month to be bearish.. If it doesnt end in a drop then october may provide bigger drops.
did US boom them?
the methodology is certainly interesting, but in the face of the fundamental issues and other forces pushing the price higher I just don't see this drop happening in the short term. Until mtgox is able to reliably become an exchange again (rather than a trap...), the price essentially has only one direction.
Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
chodpaba, it would be nice of you to issue a prediction for 2 days from now, if possible.
We can reach a price of 130$ in two ways:
1. Drop to 120$ and then rebound to 130$.
2. Rise to 150$ and then drop to 130$.
I am very interested to find out if your method works reliably for a 2 days interval.
Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I approve of this prediction(projection)!
Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here?
Gox
Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I approve of this prediction(projection)!
Apologies for coming late to the party, but are you predicting gox or bitstamp's price here?
Here is a little something I have been experimenting with. The one week call.
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I basically use the same assumptions that I am using for the reversal projection, except that in the reporting I am picking off samples from a specific time target. I am specifically targeting the VWA one week out. And with that, here's a test call:
Friday, September 20, 2013 $130.27
I approve of this prediction(projection)!
The latest.
$78.47 Friday, October 25, 2013 <—Median
$78.47 Friday, October 25, 2013 <—Median
you forgot prepend 1 => $178,47 :-)
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
Do I understand correctly that you expect the price to go to around $60 before the end of the year?
How much percent chance do you give this? 50%? 90%?
Also, I'm confused on what you base this?
That is the median case, but this is just a toy.
What I am looking at is an indicator which shows the likelihood that an intermediate reversal has occurred. It works by comparing how BTCOBV and $OBV track compared to price development in order to detect what regime of feedback effects is dominant.
Then I go back to look at the distribution of the change in price from bin to bin in the last leg before the last reversal and take the compliment of it to form a random variable going forward, there are actually 5 random variables involved which have some dependency re. the development of the reversal indicator, to provide a random trial of where it might turn again in the future, this is the output of the trial.
I am not actually certain that it is meaningful to assign a point probability to a particular outcome. It would be more meaningful to say, for instance, that there is a percentile case for price being above or below a target, or before or after a target. The median case as a rule of thumb would be the 50th percentile presuming a well-behaved Gaussian distribution. But I don't think that is a safe assumption. For one thing, I know that there are dependencies that I don't have worked into the (Markov chain) Monte Carlo yet.
That is chinese for me. I have no idea what your answer to my question is.
I'm willing to pay to get your opinion if that is what it takes.
In such case, I would ask: explain like I'm a 5 year old.
Are you able/willing to?
sr. member
Activity: 294
Merit: 250
This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!
All Y'all seemed to be confused by the raw output list, so here's a scatter plot.
Yeah—scatter plots are fun.
Sorry, I would normally do a lot more trials but I am still in the middle of testing some updates and that takes too long.
Yeah—scatter plots are fun.
Sorry, I would normally do a lot more trials but I am still in the middle of testing some updates and that takes too long.
Do I understand correctly that you expect the price to go to around $60 before the end of the year?
How much percent chance do you give this? 50%? 90%?
Also, I'm confused on what you base this?
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