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Topic: . - page 7. (Read 35863 times)

legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
September 10, 2013, 10:08:34 PM
I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Code:
$75.20	median		Wednesday, October 23, 2013

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 Huh I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.
legendary
Activity: 4200
Merit: 4887
You're never too old to think young.
September 10, 2013, 08:09:16 AM
However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

Damn. Now I can't get Frank Zappa out of my head.   Grin
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 10, 2013, 07:59:04 AM
I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.  

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.

That speaks to the segment of the funds-holding population that is actually trading. There is a lot sitting on the sidelines.

It is a low information market.

edit: uninterestingly enough there is almost the same amount of volume between $136 down to $65.50 as there was from $65.50 back up to $148.70

Perhaps this is true, but it doesnt speak to the trend.  The trend consists of the people actually buying and selling, and there doesnt seem to be many compared to April.

I think the clear 'trend' will be showen after the breaking out of this consolidation range/triangle and you will certainly see the volume then.
hero member
Activity: 602
Merit: 500
September 10, 2013, 01:08:54 AM
israel has one of the biggest tech industries in the world. they are big fans. they also have quite a lot of gold shops there too
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 09, 2013, 11:43:03 PM
you have a high influx of israelis on this forum, that must be way. There is a very strong bitcoin community in Israel. Partly due to Meni Rosenfeld, but more so the general Israeli population has the mind for things like bitcoin
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
September 09, 2013, 10:55:56 PM
thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

2nd time someone has asked me that, but no, it's the shield for Mossad (Israel's CIA). However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 09, 2013, 10:24:17 PM
Either of those scenarios and I think we are all happy campers. Hopefully around 2017 when finances collapse bitcoin infrastructure will be strong enough that people may consider bitcoin a global hedge. We will see tho
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 09, 2013, 09:59:54 PM
thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?
legendary
Activity: 1414
Merit: 1000
HODL OR DIE
September 09, 2013, 09:56:31 PM
If you are a green trader, nothing could be more foolish than trading this market. If you believe in bitcoin then buy and hold and just let things run its course.
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 09, 2013, 09:26:09 PM
Chodpaba do you believe that 5-7 digit bitcoins are likely to happen? If so wouldn't the best strategy be to wait till it goes lower and then buy in and hold? If my memory serves me correctly you once said something about deffered greed...
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 09, 2013, 07:55:15 PM
I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.
legendary
Activity: 1008
Merit: 1000
September 09, 2013, 04:32:26 PM
I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now?  All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.
sr. member
Activity: 516
Merit: 283
September 09, 2013, 04:31:54 PM
I think I see the gates to Trendlessville. 

calm before the storm.
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 08, 2013, 06:28:27 PM
yea i agree with you long term, i was a noob and was influenced by fluctuations to panic sell. bitcoins is my first investment, i had no idea what i was doing (nor do i now lol). lost a lot of money for no good reason, but we learn
legendary
Activity: 1904
Merit: 1037
Trusted Bitcoiner
September 08, 2013, 05:51:21 PM
ya you feel that don't you... its not like it matters much, yet we all panic like mad fools when it happens  Cheesy

i will be buying heavily on further dips

 Cool
sr. member
Activity: 1078
Merit: 254
September 08, 2013, 05:43:14 PM
still think we are going up? i don't know why but i have a feeling we are about to take a dip
member
Activity: 70
Merit: 10
September 08, 2013, 12:04:49 PM
This looks like a forming of the "shoulders" pattern...

It does. We may have reversed at $148.70.

In your opinion, couldn't The $148.70 be the peak of the first shoulder? Head still to come scenario, if this is exhibiting text book head and shoulder patterns.
legendary
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1014
September 08, 2013, 06:05:32 AM
This looks like a forming of the "shoulders" pattern...
legendary
Activity: 2884
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
September 07, 2013, 11:38:51 PM
This is fun where it stops no one will know 4 more days for 177  Grin
legendary
Activity: 1372
Merit: 1000
September 07, 2013, 11:16:53 PM

Actually, there are a lot of funds that have never left the sidelines since the last ATH, based on what has actually executed. Which is a lot more than what is on the order book.

Sure and I suspect we're talking Fort Gox, which isn't by choice. There are, I'll admit people that don't like to admit losses and are reluctant to buy back in sitting on the sidelines waiting to get left behind or catch a 2011 bargain. But I do see a few new cars with Bitcoin numberless plates.

I liked your way of processing behavior as information and will admit there is more to model than I would imagine possible.
Thanks for keeping me on my toes.
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