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Adrian-x

legendary

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I have moved away from using convergence/divergence calibrations and have instead worked the indicators I have been using into a set of statistically based oscillators, some of which I actually use for the projection, and others I just use for diagnostics. As well, I have moved more toward a Monte Carlo approach to doing the projection.

Here is the median case result of a projection under a given set of assumptions plus a sampling of the raw outputs.
This is using calibrations presuming $148.91 as an intermediate peak. The time and price targets are actually treated independently.

I expect to post updates as dictated by new data, updates to my assumptions, or updates to methodology.

Code:

$75.20	median		Wednesday, October 23, 2013

This is as clear as mud for me, if you are projecting a $75.20 median on X date then the price will likely be somewhere between $150 and $0 Huh

I hate to burden you but I think I need an ELI5.

JimboToronto

legendary

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You're never too old to think young.

Quote from: byronbb on September 09, 2013, 11:55:56 PM

However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

Damn. Now I can't get Frank Zappa out of my head. Grin

SkRRJyTC

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 09, 2013, 08:55:15 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 09, 2013, 05:32:26 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now? All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.

That speaks to the segment of the funds-holding population that is actually trading. There is a lot sitting on the sidelines.

It is a low information market.

edit: uninterestingly enough there is almost the same amount of volume between $136 down to $65.50 as there was from $65.50 back up to $148.70

Perhaps this is true, but it doesnt speak to the trend. The trend consists of the people actually buying and selling, and there doesnt seem to be many compared to April.

I think the clear 'trend' will be showen after the breaking out of this consolidation range/triangle and you will certainly see the volume then.

superduh

hero member

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israel has one of the biggest tech industries in the world. they are big fans. they also have quite a lot of gold shops there too

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

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you have a high influx of israelis on this forum, that must be way. There is a very strong bitcoin community in Israel. Partly due to Meni Rosenfeld, but more so the general Israeli population has the mind for things like bitcoin

byronbb

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Activity: 1414

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HODL OR DIE

Quote from: adpinbr on September 09, 2013, 10:59:54 PM

thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

2nd time someone has asked me that, but no, it's the shield for Mossad (Israel's CIA). However, first girl I ever kissed was Jewish though, so that counts for something.

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

Merit: 254

Either of those scenarios and I think we are all happy campers. Hopefully around 2017 when finances collapse bitcoin infrastructure will be strong enough that people may consider bitcoin a global hedge. We will see tho

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

Merit: 254

thanks chodpaba. I still would like to hear your long term beliefs...

byronbb, I agree with you, and I am green. Nice avatar, are you israeli by any chance?

byronbb

legendary

Activity: 1414

Merit: 1000

HODL OR DIE

If you are a green trader, nothing could be more foolish than trading this market. If you believe in bitcoin then buy and hold and just let things run its course.

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

Merit: 254

Chodpaba do you believe that 5-7 digit bitcoins are likely to happen? If so wouldn't the best strategy be to wait till it goes lower and then buy in and hold? If my memory serves me correctly you once said something about deffered greed...

SkRRJyTC

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: SkRRJyTC on September 09, 2013, 05:32:26 PM

Quote from: ?? on ??

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now? All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

An increase of over 120% in two months isn't exactly trendless. That is pretty much a good example of a trend.

But if my thesis holds the coming more-or-less trendless 'baseing' forms the leadup to a sustained rally. Somewhere along here traders are going to look for an entry point to go 'all in', but I think the bottom of the bottom will be hard to pick. I am not all that excited about trading intermediate swings at this point.

I think your trend is lacking volume.

SkRRJyTC

legendary

Activity: 1008

Merit: 1000

Quote from: ?? on ??

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.

Have we not been in Trendlessville for months now? All price movement of the last few months have been correcting the $260 high.

rampantparanoia

sr. member

Activity: 516

Merit: 283

Quote from: ?? on ??

I think I see the gates to Trendlessville.

calm before the storm.

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

Merit: 254

yea i agree with you long term, i was a noob and was influenced by fluctuations to panic sell. bitcoins is my first investment, i had no idea what i was doing (nor do i now lol). lost a lot of money for no good reason, but we learn

adamstgBit

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Trusted Bitcoiner

ya you feel that don't you... its not like it matters much, yet we all panic like mad fools when it happens Cheesy

i will be buying heavily on further dips

Cool

adpinbr

sr. member

Activity: 1078

Merit: 254

still think we are going up? i don't know why but i have a feeling we are about to take a dip

DrJoeGrine

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Quote from: Nemo1024 on September 08, 2013, 07:05:32 AM

This looks like a forming of the "shoulders" pattern...

It does. We may have reversed at $148.70.

In your opinion, couldn't The $148.70 be the peak of the first shoulder? Head still to come scenario, if this is exhibiting text book head and shoulder patterns.

Nemo1024

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This looks like a forming of the "shoulders" pattern...

Swordsoffreedom

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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform

This is fun where it stops no one will know 4 more days for 177 Grin

Adrian-x

legendary

Activity: 1372

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Quote from: ?? on ??

Actually, there are a lot of funds that have never left the sidelines since the last ATH, based on what has actually executed. Which is a lot more than what is on the order book.

Sure and I suspect we're talking Fort Gox, which isn't by choice. There are, I'll admit people that don't like to admit losses and are reluctant to buy back in sitting on the sidelines waiting to get left behind or catch a 2011 bargain. But I do see a few new cars with Bitcoin numberless plates.

I liked your way of processing behavior as information and will admit there is more to model than I would imagine possible.
Thanks for keeping me on my toes.

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